Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,300+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we review the outlook for energy markets amid the Persian Gulf conflict, highlight coverage of gold miners large and small, and identify opportunities in Japanese financials.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,300+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we review the outlook for energy markets amid the Persian Gulf conflict, highlight coverage of gold miners large and small, and identify opportunities in Japanese financials.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 1 April 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> and Rakuten Group would start talks aimed at creating a Fintech Group. I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/if-rakuten-4755-combines-financial-units-who-wins-and-how-well-it-s-complicated" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this</a>. Talks halted 6mos later.</li>
<li>Back then, word was Bank was dissatisfied with the ratios. As of 25 Feb 2026, they are starting talks again as Rakuten Group sees greater bank competition as rates rise.</li>
<li>This is slightly complicated. Mizuho owns 14.99% of Card, and 49% of Securities. But this can be done. And the formation leads to interesting outcomes. </li>
</ul>


On 1 April 2024, Rakuten (4755 JP) announced Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) and Rakuten Group would start talks aimed at creating a Fintech Group. I wrote this. Talks halted 6mos later.
Back then, word was Bank was dissatisfied with the ratios. As of 25 Feb 2026, they are starting talks again as Rakuten Group sees greater bank competition as rates rise.
This is slightly complicated. Mizuho owns 14.99% of Card, and 49% of Securities. But this can be done. And the formation leads to interesting outcomes. 


[Japan Event] Rakuten (4755) Fintech Group Led By Rakuten Bank (5838) Gets Bigger and Keeps 20% ROE

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index has a complex selection methodology which considers size, fundamentals, and governance factors.</li>
<li>The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs each month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance scheduled for August 2026 based on trading data as of end-February 2026.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index has a complex selection methodology which considers size, fundamentals, and governance factors.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs each month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance scheduled for August 2026 based on trading data as of end-February 2026.


Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Feb 2026 Ranks

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's Nikkei rose +3.6% this week, led by companies supplying copper foil, optical fibre and semiconductors directly into AI data centre buildouts.</li>
<li>The rally is backed by real earnings: double-digit profit growth, raised guidance and dividend hikes across materials and components makers serving AI infrastructure. </li>
<li>Rising copper and gold prices are boosting earnings forecasts for miners while reinforcing a multi-year supply constraint narrative for materials suppliers serving electrification and AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>


Japan's Nikkei rose +3.6% this week, led by companies supplying copper foil, optical fibre and semiconductors directly into AI data centre buildouts.
The rally is backed by real earnings: double-digit profit growth, raised guidance and dividend hikes across materials and components makers serving AI infrastructure. 
Rising copper and gold prices are boosting earnings forecasts for miners while reinforcing a multi-year supply constraint narrative for materials suppliers serving electrification and AI infrastructure.


Japan Strategy Weekly | The AI Age Plumber

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods</li>
<li>This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.</li>
<li>Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.</li>
</ul>


There is very high delta in 30-year JGB yields in the recent month, and preceding periods
This is very much unlike what we see with the 1-year JGBs, different implications.
Insurance companies are the major holders of long-dated JGBs where banks have low duration on their bond holdings.


Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan

Rakuten Bank, Ltd. operates as an Internet based bank. The Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, exchange transactions, and other services. Rakuten Bank also provides financial services including investment trusts, securities, credit and cash cards, lottery tickets, and others.

Price Gauge
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Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)

Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....

Pranav Rao

[Japan Event] Rakuten (4755) Fintech Group Led By Rakuten Bank (5838) Gets Bigger and Keeps 20% ROE

Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank have restarted talks aimed at forming a Fintech Group (i.e. onlinebroker + e-bank + card co). It would double the...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Feb 2026 Ranks

In total, there are 49 Potential ADDs and 47 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Strategy Weekly | The AI Age Plumber

Japan's Nikkei surged on the back of strong earnings and rising copper and gold prices, driven by companies supplying materials for AI...

Mark Chadwick

Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan's insurance companies are more exposed and highly exposed to rising long-dated JGB yields, unlike for banks. The former will have more...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: Crude Reality, Reshuffling Gold Miners & Banking on Japanese Fintech

​This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....

Pranav Rao

[Japan Event] Rakuten (4755) Fintech Group Led By Rakuten Bank (5838) Gets Bigger and Keeps 20% ROE

Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank have restarted talks aimed at forming a Fintech Group (i.e. onlinebroker + e-bank + card co). It would double the...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2026: End-Feb 2026 Ranks

In total, there are 49 Potential ADDs and 47 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Strategy Weekly | The AI Age Plumber

​Japan's Nikkei surged on the back of strong earnings and rising copper and gold prices, driven by companies supplying materials for AI...

Mark Chadwick

Japan - Sharply Higher Long-Dated JGBs Should Mean Sizable Valuation Losses at Insurers, Not Banks

Japan's insurance companies are more exposed and highly exposed to rising long-dated JGB yields, unlike for banks. The former will have more...

Daniel Tabbush

This Curator's Cut highlights energy market outlook, gold miners coverage, and opportunities in Japanese financials from Smartkarma insights....

Japan's Nikkei surged on the back of strong earnings and rising copper and gold prices, driven by companies supplying materials for AI...