European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CVC proposes €52/share take-private of Recordati, implying €10.9bn equity value; shares at €48.48 reflect 7.3% spread and ~38.5% implied completion probability.</li>
<li>Offer values Recordati at 13.1x EBITDA, below rare disease peers; LBO analysis suggests capacity for a modest increase to €54–55 while preserving sponsor returns.</li>
<li>We recommend long; TP €51.46 implies ~6% upside, with ~4.5% downside and potential uplift from a higher offer price.</li>
</ul>


CVC proposes €52/share take-private of Recordati, implying €10.9bn equity value; shares at €48.48 reflect 7.3% spread and ~38.5% implied completion probability.
Offer values Recordati at 13.1x EBITDA, below rare disease peers; LBO analysis suggests capacity for a modest increase to €54–55 while preserving sponsor returns.
We recommend long; TP €51.46 implies ~6% upside, with ~4.5% downside and potential uplift from a higher offer price.


Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.</li>
<li>We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.
In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.
We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended sixteen medicines for approval at its April 2025 meeting. CHMP also adopted positive opinion for nine biosimilar medicines.</li>
<li>Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination cystic fibrosis drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s billiary tract cancer drug Ziihera have potential to become blockbusters.</li>
<li>The Agency has recommended the refusal of the marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s Disease drug Kisunla. Eli Lilly may ask for a re-examination of the opinion within 15 days.</li>
</ul>


EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended sixteen medicines for approval at its April 2025 meeting. CHMP also adopted positive opinion for nine biosimilar medicines.
Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination cystic fibrosis drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s billiary tract cancer drug Ziihera have potential to become blockbusters.
The Agency has recommended the refusal of the marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s Disease drug Kisunla. Eli Lilly may ask for a re-examination of the opinion within 15 days.


CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 <em>Int'l Compass</em> how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Italy

Recordati is an international pharmaceutical group engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceuticals. The company focuses on specialty and primary care products, including treatments for cardiovascular, urological, and gastrointestinal conditions, as well as a dedicated rare disease business unit. Recordati was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.

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Recordati (REC IM)

Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?

CVC proposes a €52 take-private of Recordati. Shares trade below offer despite strategic control and strong fundamentals. We examine valuation,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

SE600 members Beazley and Schroders will be deleted from the index after today's close. We expect Vontobel (VONN SW) and B&M European Value Retail...

Afridi Reyal

CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination CF drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s cancer...

Tina Banerjee

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

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