European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Respighi raised its offer from €51.29 to €53 and extended it to 23 October after the original price attracted almost no independent minority acceptances.</li>
<li>Despite the “best and final” language, we retain a 10–15% probability of another increase; our conditional expected consideration is €53.31.</li>
<li>At €53.10 we move from Bullish to Neutral, but would hold existing positions and buy on weakness below approximately €52.50 absent adverse deal news.</li>
</ul>


Respighi raised its offer from €51.29 to €53 and extended it to 23 October after the original price attracted almost no independent minority acceptances.
Despite the “best and final” language, we retain a 10–15% probability of another increase; our conditional expected consideration is €53.31.
At €53.10 we move from Bullish to Neutral, but would hold existing positions and buy on weakness below approximately €52.50 absent adverse deal news.


CVC & GBL / Recordati: A Higher Dose for the Holdouts

<ul>
<li>Only 0.366m shares beyond Rossini's committed stake have been tendered, despite the offer ending on 15 October. Minority participation at €51.29 remains negligible.</li>
<li>CVC/GBL could reach 56.79% after physical settlement of the TRS, leaving them needing only 22.87% of remaining shares to secure two-thirds control.</li>
<li>We assign a 65% probability to an increased offer and derive a probability-weighted value of €55.07/share, 4.6% above the 15 September close.</li>
</ul>


Only 0.366m shares beyond Rossini's committed stake have been tendered, despite the offer ending on 15 October. Minority participation at €51.29 remains negligible.
CVC/GBL could reach 56.79% after physical settlement of the TRS, leaving them needing only 22.87% of remaining shares to secure two-thirds control.
We assign a 65% probability to an increased offer and derive a probability-weighted value of €55.07/share, 4.6% above the 15 September close.


Recordati: Minority Opposition Puts €51.29 Under Pressure

<ul>
<li>CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert launched a binding €51.29/share ex-dividend take-private for Recordati, with irrevocable commitments already covering 46.8% of the share capital.</li>
<li>The offer price is effectively unchanged from the original March proposal despite completed due diligence, financing syndication and shareholder alignment, suggesting limited willingness to materially improve terms.</li>
<li>At €51.60, investors are no longer being paid for deal completion, but for the possibility of a bump.</li>
</ul>


CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert launched a binding €51.29/share ex-dividend take-private for Recordati, with irrevocable commitments already covering 46.8% of the share capital.
The offer price is effectively unchanged from the original March proposal despite completed due diligence, financing syndication and shareholder alignment, suggesting limited willingness to materially improve terms.
At €51.60, investors are no longer being paid for deal completion, but for the possibility of a bump.


Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

<ul>
<li>CVC proposes €52/share take-private of Recordati, implying €10.9bn equity value; shares at €48.48 reflect 7.3% spread and ~38.5% implied completion probability.</li>
<li>Offer values Recordati at 13.1x EBITDA, below rare disease peers; LBO analysis suggests capacity for a modest increase to €54–55 while preserving sponsor returns.</li>
<li>We recommend long; TP €51.46 implies ~6% upside, with ~4.5% downside and potential uplift from a higher offer price.</li>
</ul>


CVC proposes €52/share take-private of Recordati, implying €10.9bn equity value; shares at €48.48 reflect 7.3% spread and ~38.5% implied completion probability.
Offer values Recordati at 13.1x EBITDA, below rare disease peers; LBO analysis suggests capacity for a modest increase to €54–55 while preserving sponsor returns.
We recommend long; TP €51.46 implies ~6% upside, with ~4.5% downside and potential uplift from a higher offer price.


Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?

Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.</li>
<li>We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. It also acts as a universe for some highly tracked indices.
In this insight, we consider potential index changes that could take place in the December 2026 rebal, along with many M&amp;A deals that could trigger intra-review changes.
We discuss around seven intra-review index changes likely to take place on or before 4Q 2026 and three regular changes during the December 2026 rebal.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

Italy

Recordati is an international pharmaceutical group engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of pharmaceuticals. The company focuses on specialty and primary care products, including treatments for cardiovascular, urological, and gastrointestinal conditions, as well as a dedicated rare disease business unit. Recordati was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.

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Recordati (REC IM)

CVC & GBL / Recordati: A Higher Dose for the Holdouts

CVC/GBL have raised the offer price to €53, but limited minority participation leaves the revised offer facing another test.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Recordati: Minority Opposition Puts €51.29 Under Pressure

Minority shareholders are refusing €51.29, but CVC/GBL may not need 90% to delist Recordati. We examine the threshold arithmetic, merger route and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

CVC and GBL formalised their Recordati take-private at €51.29/share. With financing secured and only ~37% of free float needed, investors are now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Recordati: CVC Seeks Full Control – Is €52 the Right Prescription?

CVC proposes a €52 take-private of Recordati. Shares trade below offer despite strategic control and strong fundamentals. We examine valuation,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec26: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

SE600 members Beazley and Schroders will be deleted from the index after today's close. We expect Vontobel (VONN SW) and B&M European Value Retail...

Afridi Reyal

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