Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Shiseido: Weak sales in China and Travel Retail hurt performance, but cost-cutting and deep-value appeal raise potential for turnaround or takeover.  </li>
<li>
Ricoh: Effissimo bets on Ricoh's slow pivot to digital services; low valuation offers downside protection despite unclear timeline for ROE recovery.</li>
<li>
Orico: Strategic Capital targets Mizuho affiliate for underperformance and insider-led governance, pushing for reform and better capital discipline.</li>
</ul>



Shiseido: Weak sales in China and Travel Retail hurt performance, but cost-cutting and deep-value appeal raise potential for turnaround or takeover.  

Ricoh: Effissimo bets on Ricoh's slow pivot to digital services; low valuation offers downside protection despite unclear timeline for ROE recovery.

Orico: Strategic Capital targets Mizuho affiliate for underperformance and insider-led governance, pushing for reform and better capital discipline.


Japan Activist Watch | Shiseido, Ricoh, Orico, Anicom

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Konica Minolta, a key player in the Japanese office equipment market, presents an attractive investment opportunity, particularly in light of the recent actions by activist investor Effissimo.</li>
<li>The investment case for Konica Minolta hinges on several factors, including potential structural reforms, M&amp;A activity, and undervaluation.</li>
<li>Given Effissimo's track record with Ricoh and the broader industry dynamics, the thesis for a bullish outlook on Konica Minolta is compelling.</li>
</ul>


Konica Minolta, a key player in the Japanese office equipment market, presents an attractive investment opportunity, particularly in light of the recent actions by activist investor Effissimo.
The investment case for Konica Minolta hinges on several factors, including potential structural reforms, M&amp;A activity, and undervaluation.
Given Effissimo's track record with Ricoh and the broader industry dynamics, the thesis for a bullish outlook on Konica Minolta is compelling.


Japan Value | Effissimo Takes Significant Stake in Konica

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a> has re-recommended Taiyo’s revised offer of JPY5,370, which is 6.7% higher than its previous JPY5,035 offer and 3.3% higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brother-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6114:1" rel="noopener">Brother Industries (6448 JP)</a>’s JPY5,200 offer.</li>
<li>The Board articulates a compelling case on Brother's offer dis-synergies, which will help swing some shareholder opinion towards Taiyo (irrespective of the price). </li>
<li>Brother could bump, but it would not address the issue of satisfying the condition precedent (non-completion of Taiyo offer) and securing the Board's recommendation.  </li>
</ul>



Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) has re-recommended Taiyo’s revised offer of JPY5,370, which is 6.7% higher than its previous JPY5,035 offer and 3.3% higher than Brother Industries (6448 JP)’s JPY5,200 offer.
The Board articulates a compelling case on Brother's offer dis-synergies, which will help swing some shareholder opinion towards Taiyo (irrespective of the price). 
Brother could bump, but it would not address the issue of satisfying the condition precedent (non-completion of Taiyo offer) and securing the Board's recommendation.  


Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma

Japan

RICOH COMPANY, LTD. manufactures and markets office automation equipment, electronic devices, and photographic instruments.  The Company's diverse product line includes facsimiles, image scanners, printers, digital cameras, and personal computers, as well as a full range of analog, digital, and color copiers. Ricoh operates with a network of sales offices and tie-ups worldwide.

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Ricoh Company Ltd (7752 JP)

Japan Activist Watch | Shiseido, Ricoh, Orico, Anicom

Shiseido is either a turnaround or takeover target. Ricoh's slow move to digital services attracts interest, while Orico is targeted for reform by...

Mark Chadwick

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Value | Effissimo Takes Significant Stake in Konica

Activist investor Effissimo's involvement in Konica Minolta presents an investment opportunity due to potential reforms, M&A activity, and...

Mark Chadwick

Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma

The shares are trading above Taiyo’s revised offer. Brother could bump but faces a dilemma as its tender offer (irrespective of price) now has a...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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Japan Activist Watch | Shiseido, Ricoh, Orico, Anicom

​Shiseido is either a turnaround or takeover target. Ricoh's slow move to digital services attracts interest, while Orico is targeted for reform by...

Mark Chadwick

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Value | Effissimo Takes Significant Stake in Konica

​Activist investor Effissimo's involvement in Konica Minolta presents an investment opportunity due to potential reforms, M&A activity, and...

Mark Chadwick

Roland DG (6789 JP): Taiyo Bumps as Brother (6448 JP) Now Faces a Dilemma

The shares are trading above Taiyo’s revised offer. Brother could bump but faces a dilemma as its tender offer (irrespective of price) now has a...

Arun George

Shiseido is either a turnaround or takeover target. Ricoh's slow move to digital services attracts interest, while Orico is targeted for reform by...

Activist investor Effissimo's involvement in Konica Minolta presents an investment opportunity due to potential reforms, M&A activity, and...