Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto's</a> share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.</li>
<li>This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.</li>
</ul>



Context:Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.

Rio Tinto's share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.
This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">(RIO LN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc-057cb83c-c6f0-460f-976f-c58c789ef28c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28506:1" rel="noopener">(RIO US)</a> is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.
</li>
<li>
Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.</li>
<li>
Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) / (RIO LN) / (RIO US) is scheduled to report its 2025 half year results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 16:15 AEST.


Actionable Option Strategy: Options imply a move noticeably larger than the historical average, opening up a potential short-term yield opportunity. Trade setup discussed in detail.

Why Read: The Insight outlines yield-focused short-vol strategies, the expected volatility crush, and a forecast for Rio’s interim dividend based on payout policy and timing.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The company reported Q2/25 production, with decent growth for iron ore, copper, aluminum and precious metals as expected, and guidance maintained for all divisions</li>
<li>A new CEO announced yesterday, Mr. Simon Trott, is head of Rio’s iron ore segment with  20 years at the company, not indicating any major shake-up of the corporate culture</li>
<li>We remain cautious given potential for a reversal of recent jumps in iron ore and copper, and a weak medium-term outlook for the former, while Rio's valuation remains moderate</li>
</ul>


The company reported Q2/25 production, with decent growth for iron ore, copper, aluminum and precious metals as expected, and guidance maintained for all divisions
A new CEO announced yesterday, Mr. Simon Trott, is head of Rio’s iron ore segment with  20 years at the company, not indicating any major shake-up of the corporate culture
We remain cautious given potential for a reversal of recent jumps in iron ore and copper, and a weak medium-term outlook for the former, while Rio's valuation remains moderate


Rio Tinto: Status Quo New CEO and Q2/25 Operations

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Copper strength continues, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Arcadium integration, with volumes trending toward the higher end of guidance.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto is gradually shifting its portfolio toward copper and lithium to reduce reliance on iron ore and align with energy transition demand.</li>
<li>FY25 guidance remains intact across key commodities, with improved operating momentum and diversified growth positioning the company for a resilient second half.</li>
</ul>


Copper strength continues, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Arcadium integration, with volumes trending toward the higher end of guidance.
Rio Tinto is gradually shifting its portfolio toward copper and lithium to reduce reliance on iron ore and align with energy transition demand.
FY25 guidance remains intact across key commodities, with improved operating momentum and diversified growth positioning the company for a resilient second half.


Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices continue to inch lower as import options for China increase. China accounts for 72% of the seaborne market. </li>
<li>For China, imports from Brazil and Australia account for 82% of its overall number.  South Africa and India are 5% but the other category (13%) is now growing. </li>
<li>Can Imports from other regions, such as Canada, Ukraine, Africa, Iran, and Peru, increase? Data shows that it is happening. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices continue to inch lower as import options for China increase. China accounts for 72% of the seaborne market. 
For China, imports from Brazil and Australia account for 82% of its overall number.  South Africa and India are 5% but the other category (13%) is now growing. 
Can Imports from other regions, such as Canada, Ukraine, Africa, Iran, and Peru, increase? Data shows that it is happening. 


Iron Ore: China Imports From Ukraine, Iran, And Peru Show An Increasing Trend

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Reminder: Rio Tinto (RIO AU) reports today at 16:15 AEST (Sydney) / 07:15 BST (London) / 02:15 EDT (New York). Since yesterday’s publication, the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto: Status Quo New CEO and Q2/25 Operations

Rio Tinto announced Q2/25 operational results that were inline with expectations and a new CEO from inside the company, indicating no major shake...

Graeme Cunningham

Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.

Rahul Jain

Iron Ore: China Imports From Ukraine, Iran, And Peru Show An Increasing Trend

We assess the impact of rising exports from geographic destinations other than Australia and Brazil on iron ore, providing data on increases in...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations

​Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto (RIO AU) 1H25 Results on 30 July: Earning Yield from Volatility Premium

Reminder: Rio Tinto (RIO AU) reports today at 16:15 AEST (Sydney) / 07:15 BST (London) / 02:15 EDT (New York). Since yesterday’s publication, the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto: Status Quo New CEO and Q2/25 Operations

Rio Tinto announced Q2/25 operational results that were inline with expectations and a new CEO from inside the company, indicating no major shake...

Graeme Cunningham

Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

​Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.

Rahul Jain

Iron Ore: China Imports From Ukraine, Iran, And Peru Show An Increasing Trend

We assess the impact of rising exports from geographic destinations other than Australia and Brazil on iron ore, providing data on increases in...

Sameer Taneja

Rio Tinto Ltd cuts dividend by 16% after 1H25 results, leading to unexpected share price drop exacerbated by surprise US copper tariff announcement.

Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.