Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As Australian iron ore export growth plateaus, Simandou strengthens Rio Tinto's long-term competitive position through exposure to a world-class, high-grade iron ore asset.</li>
<li>Kennecott may weigh on near-term cash flows, but Oyu Tolgoi's strong ramp-up, lower unit costs and a deep pipeline of copper projects keep Rio Tinto's ambitions firmly on track.</li>
<li>China's changing iron ore market, rising labor unrest and CMRG's growing influence are quietly reshaping the risks facing Rio Tinto.</li>
</ul>


As Australian iron ore export growth plateaus, Simandou strengthens Rio Tinto's long-term competitive position through exposure to a world-class, high-grade iron ore asset.
Kennecott may weigh on near-term cash flows, but Oyu Tolgoi's strong ramp-up, lower unit costs and a deep pipeline of copper projects keep Rio Tinto's ambitions firmly on track.
China's changing iron ore market, rising labor unrest and CMRG's growing influence are quietly reshaping the risks facing Rio Tinto.


Rio Tinto: Simandou Is Only One Piece of a Much Bigger Story

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 20th July, published on the 24th July.
</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts declined A$0.2bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-energy-group-ltd-d0081203-96cd-4335-92ed-3b4cb7733dc6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38564:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Energy (WDS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers (WES AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group (REA AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 20th July, published on the 24th July.

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts declined A$0.2bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Westpac Banking (WBC AU), Woodside Energy (WDS US), Wesfarmers (WES AU), and REA Group (REA AU).


Aussie Shorts [20 July 2026]:  Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmers, REA Group

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Australia, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across three sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Australia, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across three sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (27 July 2026)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two markets and four sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently four pair trade opportunities persist across two markets and four sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Jul 2026)

Australia

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Rio Tinto (RIO US)

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

Rio Tinto: Simandou Is Only One Piece of a Much Bigger Story

The headline numbers tell only part of the story. Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi and an expanding copper portfolio are quietly reshaping Rio Tinto's earnings...

Mint Finance

Aussie Shorts [20 July 2026]: Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmers, REA Group

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified...

David Blennerhassett

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (27 July 2026)

Discover three pair trade opportunities across three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Jul 2026)

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

Rio Tinto: Simandou Is Only One Piece of a Much Bigger Story

The headline numbers tell only part of the story. Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi and an expanding copper portfolio are quietly reshaping Rio Tinto's earnings...

Mint Finance

Aussie Shorts [20 July 2026]: Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmers, REA Group

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified...

David Blennerhassett

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (27 July 2026)

​Discover three pair trade opportunities across three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (27 Jul 2026)

​Discover four pair trade opportunities across two markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Discover three pair trade opportunities across three sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover four pair trade opportunities across two markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.