Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

The weight of the evidence remains mixed yet constructive overall and suggests pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&amp;P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. Therefore, we continue to recommend adding exposure to cyclical value areas (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation) on pullbacks. Below we explain why we believe value’s outperformance is in its early innings, and the basis for our overall constructive outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$800m from a primary share placement. It also plans to raise another US$800m from a convertible bond offering.</li>
<li>MMG is a base metals miner focused on copper and zinc production, with key assets including Las Bambas (Peru), Khoemacau (Botswana) and Kinsevere in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.</li>
<li>In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



MMG (1208 HK) is looking to raise around US$800m from a primary share placement. It also plans to raise another US$800m from a convertible bond offering.
MMG is a base metals miner focused on copper and zinc production, with key assets including Las Bambas (Peru), Khoemacau (Botswana) and Kinsevere in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Aequitas: MMG Ltd Placement - Expansion Funding Amid Strong Recent Momentum

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 18th May, published on the 22nd May.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was just A$49mn into "Industrial REITs"; the largest net decrease was A$531mn out of "Diversified Banks". Net shorts fell A$1.6bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4dmedical-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30789:1" rel="noopener">4DMedical (4DX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">NAB (NAB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ  (ANZ AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac (WBC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 18th May, published on the 22nd May.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was just A$49mn into "Industrial REITs"; the largest net decrease was A$531mn out of "Diversified Banks". Net shorts fell A$1.6bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Insurance Australia (IAG AU), 4DMedical (4DX AU), The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU), NAB (NAB AU), ANZ  (ANZ AU), and Westpac (WBC AU).


Aussie Shorts [18th May]: Insurance Australia, 4DMedical, The Lottery Corp., NAB, ANZ, and Westpac

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 27th April, published ~9AM on the 1st May.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$92mn into "Internet Services"; the largest industry net decrease was A$1.5mn out of "Diversified Banks". Net shorts decreased A$5.2bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/generation-development-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14945:1" rel="noopener">Generation Development Group (GDG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bapcor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8433:1" rel="noopener">Bapcor (BAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beach-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:795:1" rel="noopener">Beach Energy (BPT AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 27th April, published ~9AM on the 1st May.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$92mn into "Internet Services"; the largest industry net decrease was A$1.5mn out of "Diversified Banks". Net shorts decreased A$5.2bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), Generation Development Group (GDG AU), Bapcor (BAP AU), Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU), and Beach Energy (BPT AU).


Aussie Shorts [27 Apr 2026]: Predictive Discovery, Bapcor, Woodside Petroleum, Beach Energy

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BHP’s weather-related volume softness is partly offset by improved visibility on China flows, though weaker copper output raises execution risks at a time of higher market sensitivity.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto’s solid production is overshadowed by softer sales, with Simandou’s high-grade upside contingent on Chinese mill economics and a still selective demand environment.</li>
<li>Both companies appear to understate diesel-driven cost pressures, with rising fuel intensity likely to steepen the cost curve and compress margins more than currently guided. </li>
</ul>


BHP’s weather-related volume softness is partly offset by improved visibility on China flows, though weaker copper output raises execution risks at a time of higher market sensitivity.
Rio Tinto’s solid production is overshadowed by softer sales, with Simandou’s high-grade upside contingent on Chinese mill economics and a still selective demand environment.
Both companies appear to understate diesel-driven cost pressures, with rising fuel intensity likely to steepen the cost curve and compress margins more than currently guided. 


BHP Blinks First on China Index, Now Pressure Builds on Rio Tinto

Australia

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

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Rio Tinto (RIO US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Value Is Just Getting Going; S&P 500, Micro-Caps At Support

The weight of the evidence suggests pullbacks to 4000-4040 on the S&P 500 would be nothing more than a buying opportunity. We also explain why we...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: MMG Ltd Placement - Expansion Funding Amid Strong Recent Momentum

MMG Ltd (1208.HK) is looking to raise around US$800m from a primary share placement. It also plans to raise another US$800m from a convertible bond...

Akshat Shah

Aussie Shorts [18th May]: Insurance Australia, 4DMedical, The Lottery Corp., NAB, ANZ, and Westpac

Net shorts fell A$1.6bn week-on-week. Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Insurance Australia, 4DMedical, The Lottery...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts [27 Apr 2026]: Predictive Discovery, Bapcor, Woodside Petroleum, Beach Energy

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$92mn into "Internet Services"; the largest net decrease was A$1.5mn out of "Diversified...

David Blennerhassett

BHP Blinks First on China Index, Now Pressure Builds on Rio Tinto

Cyclone-hit shipments, patchy copper output, and cautious buying reveal a gap between production strength and real demand across BHP and Rio.

Mint Finance

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