Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It is hard to get constructive on iron ore due to poor lending data in China, with August TSF down 38% YoY, negative mill margins, and expectations of increased supply.</li>
<li>We believe, though, that we are now bumping up against the higher end of the cost curve as iron ore prices have drifted down to 90-91 USD/ton. </li>
<li>While we see a small bounce in prices, we find it hard to be positive on equities, as elevated diesel and shipping costs are causing a margin squeeze.</li>
</ul>


It is hard to get constructive on iron ore due to poor lending data in China, with August TSF down 38% YoY, negative mill margins, and expectations of increased supply.
We believe, though, that we are now bumping up against the higher end of the cost curve as iron ore prices have drifted down to 90-91 USD/ton. 
While we see a small bounce in prices, we find it hard to be positive on equities, as elevated diesel and shipping costs are causing a margin squeeze.


Iron Ore Prices: Small Bounce From 90 USD/Ton, Cost Pressures Still Negative For Equities

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Rio Tinto’s recent half-year financial results demonstrate a complex dynamic of robust operational improvements amid a challenging commodity price environment.</li><li>During the period, the company exhibited a resilient financial performance, marked by an underlying EBITDA of $11.5 billion and an operating cash flow of $6.9 billion.</li><li>Despite facing a 13% lower iron ore price, Rio Tinto maintained its strong financial standing through increased contributions from its copper and aluminum divisions and record bauxite production—thanks to enhanced operational efficiencies and strategic project developments.</li></ul>

Rio Tinto’s recent half-year financial results demonstrate a complex dynamic of robust operational improvements amid a challenging commodity price environment.During the period, the company exhibited a resilient financial performance, marked by an underlying EBITDA of $11.5 billion and an operating cash flow of $6.9 billion.Despite facing a 13% lower iron ore price, Rio Tinto maintained its strong financial standing through increased contributions from its copper and aluminum divisions and record bauxite production—thanks to enhanced operational efficiencies and strategic project developments.

Rio Tinto and Simandou—Can New Iron Ore Supply Offset Global Depletion Pressures?

<ul><li>Rio Tinto and Glencore walked away from merger talks that would have reshaped global copper supply.</li><li>The deal collapsed over valuation, but the implications run deeper for how capital is flowing into critical minerals.</li><li>The market’s first read is straightforward: price discipline won.</li></ul>

Rio Tinto and Glencore walked away from merger talks that would have reshaped global copper supply.The deal collapsed over valuation, but the implications run deeper for how capital is flowing into critical minerals.The market’s first read is straightforward: price discipline won.

Did The Rio Tinto–Glencore Deal Fail Because Copper Is TOO Strategic?

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Chinese steel mill margins are deteriorating, raising the risk of August maintenance, lower hot-metal output and weaker iron ore demand.</li>
<li>CMRG is tightening control over China’s iron ore procurement, with restrictions hitting Australian miners and contributing to weaker shipments.</li>
<li>Across SLX’s top 10 holdings, 7/10 beat EPS estimates, while 8/10 carry positive average analyst price target upside.</li>
</ul>


Chinese steel mill margins are deteriorating, raising the risk of August maintenance, lower hot-metal output and weaker iron ore demand.
CMRG is tightening control over China’s iron ore procurement, with restrictions hitting Australian miners and contributing to weaker shipments.
Across SLX’s top 10 holdings, 7/10 beat EPS estimates, while 8/10 carry positive average analyst price target upside.


Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Australia, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Australia, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

Australia

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Rio Tinto (RIO US)

Iron Ore Prices: Small Bounce From 90 USD/Ton, Cost Pressures Still Negative For Equities

Iron ore prices have drifted lower due to weak Chinese lending data and negative mill margins. We update readers on the iron ore industry's current...

Sameer Taneja

Rio Tinto and Simandou—Can New Iron Ore Supply Offset Global Depletion Pressures?

Rio Tinto’s recent half-year financial results demonstrate a complex dynamic of robust operational improvements amid a challenging commodity price...

Baptista Research

Did The Rio Tinto–Glencore Deal Fail Because Copper Is TOO Strategic?

Rio Tinto and Glencore walked away from merger talks that would have reshaped global copper supply. The deal collapsed over valuation, but the...

Baptista Research

Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

CMRG is squeezing Australian iron ore miners, but without deeper Chinese steel production cuts or stronger stimulus, a sustained iron ore rebound...

Mint Finance

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Prices: Small Bounce From 90 USD/Ton, Cost Pressures Still Negative For Equities

Iron ore prices have drifted lower due to weak Chinese lending data and negative mill margins. We update readers on the iron ore industry's current...

Sameer Taneja

Rio Tinto and Simandou—Can New Iron Ore Supply Offset Global Depletion Pressures?

Rio Tinto’s recent half-year financial results demonstrate a complex dynamic of robust operational improvements amid a challenging commodity price...

Baptista Research

Did The Rio Tinto–Glencore Deal Fail Because Copper Is TOO Strategic?

Rio Tinto and Glencore walked away from merger talks that would have reshaped global copper supply. The deal collapsed over valuation, but the...

Baptista Research

Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

CMRG is squeezing Australian iron ore miners, but without deeper Chinese steel production cuts or stronger stimulus, a sustained iron ore rebound...

Mint Finance

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

​Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.