Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Post-Holiday liquidity provided the spark, but the decisive catalyst is rising blast furnace ramp-ups, pointing to improving steel demand fundamentals across China.</li>
<li>BHP lifted iron ore output despite CMRG restrictions, with management confident a workable solution will emerge. </li>
<li>Managed money participants turning net short in iron ore reflects growing downside conviction, as investors question whether demand can absorb still-ample supply.</li>
</ul>


Post-Holiday liquidity provided the spark, but the decisive catalyst is rising blast furnace ramp-ups, pointing to improving steel demand fundamentals across China.
BHP lifted iron ore output despite CMRG restrictions, with management confident a workable solution will emerge. 
Managed money participants turning net short in iron ore reflects growing downside conviction, as investors question whether demand can absorb still-ample supply.


Iron Ore Tug-Of-War: China Liquidity Return Vs. Managed Money Short Buildup

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

<ul>
<li>Iron ore fell 4.5% for the week ending 06/Feb as weak steel demand, rising Chinese port inventories, and a broader commodity risk-off sentiment outweighed steady blast furnace output.</li>
<li>BHP–Lundin’s Vicuña plans USD 800 million copper investment, Rio–Glencore talks collapsed, while Macquarie lifted Fortescue to Neutral.</li>
<li>SGX iron ore prices remain below short-term MAs but show signs of stabilisation, with Bollinger exhaustion and range formation pointing to a potential near-term rebound.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore fell 4.5% for the week ending 06/Feb as weak steel demand, rising Chinese port inventories, and a broader commodity risk-off sentiment outweighed steady blast furnace output.
BHP–Lundin’s Vicuña plans USD 800 million copper investment, Rio–Glencore talks collapsed, while Macquarie lifted Fortescue to Neutral.
SGX iron ore prices remain below short-term MAs but show signs of stabilisation, with Bollinger exhaustion and range formation pointing to a potential near-term rebound.


Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

<ul>
<li>Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.</li>
<li>BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.</li>
<li>Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.
BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.
Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.


Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520</li>
<li>SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week(11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Intermediate-term, still bullish above 6480-6520
SPX gap down (resistance at 6910-6940, Staples at 4-month RS highs, and more are giving us reason for caution in the near-term, though we still view pullbacks as a buy


Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

<ul>
<li>Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. </li>
<li>In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.</li>
<li>After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. 
In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.
After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.


Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

Australia

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

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Rio Tinto (RIO US)

Iron Ore Tug-Of-War: China Liquidity Return Vs. Managed Money Short Buildup

Iron ore futures slipped by 1.4% last week, then rebounded after blast furnaces ramp up and post-holiday liquidity push. Still, the narrative is...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...

Mint Finance

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Tug-Of-War: China Liquidity Return Vs. Managed Money Short Buildup

Iron ore futures slipped by 1.4% last week, then rebounded after blast furnaces ramp up and post-holiday liquidity push. Still, the narrative is...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Under Pressure, but Positioning and Structure Point to Stabilisation

​Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...

Mint Finance

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

Reason for Near-Term Caution? 10Y Treasury Yield Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy and Staples

Reason for Near-Term Caution? $SPX $QQQ 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Above 4.20%; Upgrading Energy $XLE $RSPG and Staples $XLP to market weight,...

Vermilion Research

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

Iron ore prices dropped due to weak steel demand and rising Chinese port inventories. Rio-Glencore talks collapsed. SGX iron ore prices show signs...