Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will join both the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>


September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> became eligible for inclusion in S&amp;P500 following its quarterly earnings of $10bn on 31 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> are the main candidates for addition from TMI at the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interactive-brokers-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13335:1" rel="noopener">Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emcor-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20703:1" rel="noopener">Emcor Group Inc (EME US)</a> are the main candidates for addition from MidCap at the September 2025 review.</li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) became eligible for inclusion in S&amp;P500 following its quarterly earnings of $10bn on 31 July.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD US), Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US), and AppLovin (APP US) are the main candidates for addition from TMI at the September 2025 review.

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition from MidCap at the September 2025 review.


S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.</li>
<li>SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term supports on the SPX include the 20-day MA (currently 6233), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Buy pullbacks to these areas.
SPX has not closed below its 20-day MA for two months, but even when it does, all we would expect to happen is for a new, less-steep uptrend to form.


More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in September 2025. There are also multiple live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in September 2025. There are also multiple live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.


[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The hold-up is based upon how Chime should be valued -- either like a fintech darling or just another financial services company.</li>
<li>The company’s gross profit tells a solid growth story as Chime ramps into the IPO with a healthy 33% gross profit clip based on Q1 2025 financials vs Q1 2024. </li>
<li>According to our sources, the Chime order book is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.</li>
</ul>


The hold-up is based upon how Chime should be valued -- either like a fintech darling or just another financial services company.
The company’s gross profit tells a solid growth story as Chime ramps into the IPO with a healthy 33% gross profit clip based on Q1 2025 financials vs Q1 2024. 
According to our sources, the Chime order book is considered multiple-times oversubscribed.


Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Heavy Demand in IPO Order Book but Reason for Caution

United States

Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates a financial services platform. The Company offers brokerage and cash management applications such as stocks, exchange-traded funds, options, and cryptocurrency. Robinhood Markets serves clients in the United States.

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Robinhood Markets (HOOD US)

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

MSTR is now eligible for S&P500 inclusion after reporting $10bn in Q2 earnings on July 31, joining HOOD, IBKR, EME and APP among the top candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM. Monitoring Rotations: Utilities $XLU, Real Estate $XLRE, Miners $XME $GDX,...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

There are a number of intra-review events (before the Sep rebal) which will likely prompt changes, possibly shrinking the existing pool of likely...

Travis Lundy

Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Heavy Demand in IPO Order Book but Reason for Caution

Chime's valuation debate hinges on whether it should be seen as a fintech star or a traditional financial services company, with strong growth and...

IPO Boutique

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52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

MSTR is now eligible for S&P500 inclusion after reporting $10bn in Q2 earnings on July 31, joining HOOD, IBKR, EME and APP among the top candidates...

Dimitris Ioannidis

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Monitoring Rotations: Miners, Retail, Lithium, China

More Breakouts and Risk-On Developments; Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM. Monitoring Rotations: Utilities $XLU, Real Estate $XLRE, Miners $XME $GDX,...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible

There are a number of intra-review events (before the Sep rebal) which will likely prompt changes, possibly shrinking the existing pool of likely...

Travis Lundy

Chime Financial, Inc. (CHYM): Heavy Demand in IPO Order Book but Reason for Caution

​Chime's valuation debate hinges on whether it should be seen as a fintech star or a traditional financial services company, with strong growth and...

IPO Boutique

Chime's valuation debate hinges on whether it should be seen as a fintech star or a traditional financial services company, with strong growth and...