Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Rocket Companies reported fourth quarter and full year 2025 results reflecting the full consolidation of its acquisitions of Redfin and Mr. Cooper, marking a significant milestone in its strategic expansion.</li><li>The fourth quarter delivered adjusted revenue of $2.44 billion, exceeding guidance by $140 million, with a net rate lock volume of $42 billion and a gain on sale margin of 320 basis points, the highest for the quarter since 2021.</li><li>Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.11, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $592 million, reflecting a margin expansion to 24%.</li></ul>

Rocket Companies reported fourth quarter and full year 2025 results reflecting the full consolidation of its acquisitions of Redfin and Mr. Cooper, marking a significant milestone in its strategic expansion.The fourth quarter delivered adjusted revenue of $2.44 billion, exceeding guidance by $140 million, with a net rate lock volume of $42 billion and a gain on sale margin of 320 basis points, the highest for the quarter since 2021.Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.11, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $592 million, reflecting a margin expansion to 24%.

Rocket Companies’ Multi-Channel Expansion Is Accelerating Growth—Retail

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

<ul><li>As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade.</li><li>Cash and government bonds would perform strongly in that scenario. Many sectors would produce disappointing returns.</li><li>Real estate would likely be an exception. In fact, it could see a revival should interest rates fall faster than currently expected by most.</li></ul>

As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade.Cash and government bonds would perform strongly in that scenario. Many sectors would produce disappointing returns.Real estate would likely be an exception. In fact, it could see a revival should interest rates fall faster than currently expected by most.

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst, ORTEX

Harry Kalfas

US-EU Index & Corporate Actions Analyst

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rocket-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36918:1" rel="noopener">Rocket Cos (RKT US)</a> to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/redfin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26359:1" rel="noopener">Redfin Corp (RDFN US)</a> in an all-stock deal valued at $1.75B.</li>
<li>Transaction includes a 0.7926 share exchange ratio and special $0.80 per share dividend.</li>
<li>The acquisition is expected to impact a major US index on an intra-quarter basis.</li>
</ul>



Rocket Cos (RKT US) to acquire Redfin Corp (RDFN US) in an all-stock deal valued at $1.75B.
Transaction includes a 0.7926 share exchange ratio and special $0.80 per share dividend.
The acquisition is expected to impact a major US index on an intra-quarter basis.


Rocket and Redfin Merger - US Index Implications

<ul><li>Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.</li><li>This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.</li><li>Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.</li></ul>

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate shock.This impulse will likely diminish over the next months. It will be replaced by a credit impulse from rate cuts, the first few of which will be very powerful.Market mechanics will be accommodating. Leverage in the system is low. In fact, the pain trade is still higher.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has priced its IPO at US$51.00 per ADS, at the top end of the price range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> will raise gross proceeds of US$4.9bn.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111238" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111471" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/arm-holdings-ipo-unattractive-price-range" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112285" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings IPO: Unattractive Price Range</a>. </li>
<li>The ARM IPO is structurally set up for a first-day pop. Beyond the first-day euphoria, ARM will face the daunting task of delivering bullish estimates to justify the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has priced its IPO at US$51.00 per ADS, at the top end of the price range. Softbank Group (9984 JP) will raise gross proceeds of US$4.9bn.
We previously discussed the IPO in ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case, ARM Holdings IPO: The Bear Case and ARM Holdings IPO: Unattractive Price Range. 
The ARM IPO is structurally set up for a first-day pop. Beyond the first-day euphoria, ARM will face the daunting task of delivering bullish estimates to justify the IPO price.


ARM Holdings IPO Trading: Structurally Set up for a First-Day Pop, but Then What?

United States

Rocket Companies, Inc. is a Michigan based holding company consisting of tech-driven real estate, mortgage and financial services businesses - including simple and fast digital solutions for complex personal transactions. Rocket Companies serves customers across the United States.

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Rocket Cos (RKT US)

Rocket Companies’ Multi-Channel Expansion Is Accelerating Growth—Retail

Rocket Companies reported fourth quarter and full year 2025 results reflecting the full consolidation of its acquisitions of Redfin and Mr....

Baptista Research

Quick Update on RKT and BETR

As often discussed, I believe that a main theme of 2026 will be the unravelling of the Debasement Trade. Cash and government bonds would...

Fallacy Alarm

Rocket and Redfin Merger - US Index Implications

Rocket Cos (RKT US) to acquire Redfin (RDFN US) in a $1.75B all-stock deal (0.7926 ratio) with a $0.80/share special dividend; the acquisition will...

Harry Kalfas

Fallacy Alarm's Elevator Pitch Party

Fiscal spending has been the key driver for this bull market as it reaccelerated in late 2022 following the inflation and subsequent interest rate...

Fallacy Alarm

ARM Holdings IPO Trading: Structurally Set up for a First-Day Pop, but Then What?

The ARM IPO is structurally set up for a first-day pop. Beyond the first-day euphoria, ARM will face the daunting task of delivering bullish...

Arun George

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