Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect high-end musical instruments to be one of the worse affected among consumer discretionary names during a high inflationary environment.</li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30727:1" rel="noopener">Roland Corp (7944 JP)</a> says that demand remains strong, the numbers such as revenue and backlog suggest weakening conditions.</li>
<li>In addition, there’s a risk of a recession and it appears that Roland has not made sufficient progress in streamlining operations to maintain profitability in a low revenue environment.</li>
</ul>


We expect high-end musical instruments to be one of the worse affected among consumer discretionary names during a high inflationary environment.
Although Roland Corp (7944 JP) says that demand remains strong, the numbers such as revenue and backlog suggest weakening conditions.
In addition, there’s a risk of a recession and it appears that Roland has not made sufficient progress in streamlining operations to maintain profitability in a low revenue environment.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline "*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES"</li>
<li>That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester's filing.</li>
<li>Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren't always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, post-close, Bloomberg reported a headline "*SILCHESTER REPORTS NIKON STAKE; MAY SEEK CAPITAL POLICY CHANGES"
That was exciting. It was in all caps. It was activist-ish-y. Today the stock rose 10.3% and we got another article saying it was up because of Silchester's filing.
Beware the Bloomberg headline. Nuance is sometimes lost. They aren't always designed to help investors invest. Often, the main purpose is clickbait.


Nikon (7731) - Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There's Value Here

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nobody "named" having &gt;5.0% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing (2427 JP)</a>; no public noise, the stock down; people won't be fighting for a bump unless the delay and impairment are truly meaningless.</li>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mgm-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1" rel="noopener">MGM China Holdings (2282 HK)</a> as its FY23 top line surpasses pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>Investors and risk arbitrageurs who are worried about the potential loss of the case to RF SUNY should simply avoid, or sell then avoid <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> shares.</li>
</ul>


Nobody "named" having &gt;5.0% in Outsourcing (2427 JP); no public noise, the stock down; people won't be fighting for a bump unless the delay and impairment are truly meaningless.
Stay long MGM China Holdings (2282 HK) as its FY23 top line surpasses pre-Covid levels.
Investors and risk arbitrageurs who are worried about the potential loss of the case to RF SUNY should simply avoid, or sell then avoid JSR Corp (4185 JP) shares.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

<ul>
<li>I tally 53 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welbe-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31118:1" rel="noopener">Welbe Inc (6556 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> 
</li>
</ul>


I tally 53 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: Altium Ltd (ALU AU), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), and Welbe Inc (6556 JP).
Key updates took place on JSR Corp (4185 JP) and Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) 



(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Altium, Ansarada, Roland DG, Welbe, Orecorp, Vinda

<ul>
<li>Taiyo Pacific Partners took the original parent company (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30727:1" rel="noopener">Roland Corp (7944 JP)</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roland-dg-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10653:1" rel="noopener">Roland DG Corp (6789 JP)</a> private in 2014. It was re-listed in 2020. </li>
<li>Roland DG is one of the world's leading large format digital printer manufacturers. They also make some interesting medical devices and systemic tools, and 3D milling/printing/engraving/photo impact machines.</li>
<li>This TOB is at a 30.1% premium. Almost a 10yr high. But it is not expensive. And even if TPP has 20%, there is a LOT of float left over.</li>
</ul>


Taiyo Pacific Partners took the original parent company (Roland Corp (7944 JP) of Roland DG Corp (6789 JP) private in 2014. It was re-listed in 2020. 
Roland DG is one of the world's leading large format digital printer manufacturers. They also make some interesting medical devices and systemic tools, and 3D milling/printing/engraving/photo impact machines.
This TOB is at a 30.1% premium. Almost a 10yr high. But it is not expensive. And even if TPP has 20%, there is a LOT of float left over.


Roland DG (6789) - Tender Offer by Taiyo Partners - Nice Premium But Too Cheap

Japan

Roland Corporation manufactures and distributes musical instruments. The Company produces keyboards, digital synthesizers, digital recorders, pianos, rhythm machines, guitars, drums, and other products. Roland markets its products worldwide.

Roland Corp (7944 JP)

Roland Corp: Not Tuned For Inflation

We anticipate around 35% downside to Roland shares in the short term as they fall back towards the bottom end of the trend channel with increasing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Nikon (7731) - Beware The Bloomberg Headline But There's Value Here

Nikon is a cheap company with dual personalities, which keeps its multiple low. It has cash and securities too. Silchester bought 5% and Bloomberg...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Outsourcing Ltd, MGM China, JSR Corp, Dissentient Blues

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Altium, Ansarada, Roland DG, Welbe, Orecorp, Vinda

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Roland DG (6789) - Tender Offer by Taiyo Partners - Nice Premium But Too Cheap

Taiyo Pacific Partners - which MBOed the parent 10yrs ago - is MBOing Roland DG. 30% premium, but too cheap. Their equity check is 3.3x PER. And...

Travis Lundy