Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. </li>
<li>The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.</li>
<li>Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
The  downward pressure has brought the S&amp;P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
Friday's and Monday's tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.


S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).</li>
<li>2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)</li>
<li>SPX is "breaking out" which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).
2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)
SPX is "breaking out" which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670


SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

<ul>
<li>We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports</li>
<li>We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.</li>
<li>Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).</li>
</ul>


We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).


Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap (and the bottom end of large cap) gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>We expect 30+ index changes (ADDs and DELs) in the September 2026 rebal, with BIG names on both sides. The one-way flow is around US$2.1bn, nearly 21% turnover.</li>
<li>The top-five fixed weights cap mainly drives the one-way flows. We expect two LOW-conviction ADDs to shake up this list, but volatile gold stocks could shift rankings. </li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap and mid-cap (and the bottom end of large cap) gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
We expect 30+ index changes (ADDs and DELs) in the September 2026 rebal, with BIG names on both sides. The one-way flow is around US$2.1bn, nearly 21% turnover.
The top-five fixed weights cap mainly drives the one-way flows. We expect two LOW-conviction ADDs to shake up this list, but volatile gold stocks could shift rankings. 


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep26 Rebal: BIG Changes Likely; Top Five Names Drive Flows

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports <em>that are currently being tested</em> would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

United States

Royal Gold, Inc. acquires and manages precious metals royalties.  The Company seeks to acquire existing royalties or to finance projects that are in production or near production in exchange for royalty interests.  Royal Gold Inc.'s gold-focused portfolio contains royalties ranging from those in production and development to those in the evaluation and exploration stages.

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Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US)

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

$SPX, NYSE Comp $NYA, $QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Friday and Monday Suggests Local Low at Minimum; Since late-Feb discussed an...

Vermilion Research

SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

$SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact as long as no weekly close > 5783; Keeping an Open Mind considering high yield spreads and MOVE...

Vermilion Research

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play. These comparisons are why we expected support...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep26 Rebal: BIG Changes Likely; Top Five Names Drive Flows

As of the MV Global Junior Gold Miners data cutoff, we saw one High/Med Conviction name leave (Intl Tower Hill Mines) and two more High/Med names...

Travis Lundy

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

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