Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the global copper market the news of trouble at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ivanhoe-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25338:1" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN)</a> large Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo dominated headlines.</li>
<li>Kamoa-Kakula is the fourth largest global copper mine ramping up supply in the coming years. The issues highlight the necessity for other projects such as Oyo Tolgoi in Mongolia. </li>
<li>In Mongolia, headlines were dominated by political unrest and a "secret" lawsuit by the Mongolian government against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In the global copper market the news of trouble at Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) large Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo dominated headlines.
Kamoa-Kakula is the fourth largest global copper mine ramping up supply in the coming years. The issues highlight the necessity for other projects such as Oyo Tolgoi in Mongolia. 
In Mongolia, headlines were dominated by political unrest and a "secret" lawsuit by the Mongolian government against Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). 


Junior Copper Miners: Ivanhoe's Congo Issues Highlight Need for More Diversified Copper Supply

Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

<ul>
<li>Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. </li>
<li>Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.</li>
<li>Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.</li>
</ul>


Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. 
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.


Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. </li>
<li>A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level</li>
</ul>


Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. 
A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level


Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low</li>
<li>Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&amp;P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a "sell rallies" regime


Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

United States

Royal Gold, Inc. acquires and manages precious metals royalties.  The Company seeks to acquire existing royalties or to finance projects that are in production or near production in exchange for royalty interests.  Royal Gold Inc.'s gold-focused portfolio contains royalties ranging from those in production and development to those in the evaluation and exploration stages.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US)

Junior Copper Miners: Ivanhoe's Congo Issues Highlight Need for More Diversified Copper Supply

Trouble at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo and political unrest in Mongolia highlight challenges in the global copper market.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Gold stocks are on the investment radar as the tariff wars fuel inflationary concerns. Find out how accounting quality is a useful screening tool...

Mark Jolley

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting $SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive. Crucial long-term SPX and $QQQ supports at 4800-4820 and...

Vermilion Research

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Junior Copper Miners: Ivanhoe's Congo Issues Highlight Need for More Diversified Copper Supply

​Trouble at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo and political unrest in Mongolia highlight challenges in the global copper market.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Gold stocks are on the investment radar as the tariff wars fuel inflationary concerns. Find out how accounting quality is a useful screening tool...

Mark Jolley

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting $SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive. Crucial long-term SPX and $QQQ supports at 4800-4820 and...

Vermilion Research

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight; Downgrading Technology $XLK to Underweight; Cautious if...

Vermilion Research

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

Trouble at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in Congo and political unrest in Mongolia highlight challenges in the global copper market.