Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key themes:<ul><li>Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3</li><li>Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14</li><li>Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19</li></ul>

Key themes:Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass  But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our updated capping flow expectations for the June 2026 rebalance.</li>
<li>We also present our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review, which will take place in September 2026.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally.
In this insight, we take a look at our updated capping flow expectations for the June 2026 rebalance.
We also present our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review, which will take place in September 2026.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Jun26/Sep26: Capping Flows and Index Changes

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners</li><li>Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levels</li><li>Fed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentiment</li><li>Central bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria</li></ul>

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver minersSome goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just to get back to median P/B levelsFed week: watch for dovishness; US GDP watch for a miss. Both of these plus coming up to month end could add to near-term equity bullish sentimentCentral bank meetings include Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Russia and Nigeria

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 4 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. Plus a whole bunch of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$5.1bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp-ce7d7ca6-59e0-44f1-958f-e5b679750b06" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25937:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11226:1" rel="noopener">Royal Gold</a> are deletions from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatland-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47602:1" rel="noopener">Greatland Resources (GGP AU)</a> is an inclusion to the ASX100 Index.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. Plus a whole bunch of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.5% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$5.1bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Pan American Silver and Royal Gold are deletions from the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF while Greatland Resources (GGP AU) is an inclusion to the ASX100 Index.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 4 Adds and US$5.1bn Trade

United States

Royal Gold, Inc. acquires and manages precious metals royalties.  The Company seeks to acquire existing royalties or to finance projects that are in production or near production in exchange for royalty interests.  Royal Gold Inc.'s gold-focused portfolio contains royalties ranging from those in production and development to those in the evaluation and exploration stages.

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Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

Key themes: Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength...

Vermilion Research

Global Miners Are Breaking Out -- Buy

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals,...

Vermilion Research

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Jun26/Sep26: Capping Flows and Index Changes

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index is more important than people know. It covers an important niche, and overlaps with others. The June rebal is 2.2%...

Travis Lundy

The Macro Take: Get the Picks Out for Gold and Silver Miners

It's time to break out the analysis on gold and silver miners Some goldminers are trading well below P/B, with potential price moves of +4x just...

Kay Van-Petersen

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 4 Adds and US$5.1bn Trade

The index rebalances at the close today. With gold trading lower since rebalance announcement and another big down move overnight (though off the...

Brian Freitas

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