Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 5.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 3.3%).</li>
<li>Energy Technology (14.6% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 7.5%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.5% of the index) was down 2.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 8.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 7.2%.</li>
<li>Top 10 Performers: CLIR, NHHH, BRDS, NILI, FPX, ATLX, GIGA, ABML, WAVE, LTBR</li>
</ul>


The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 5.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 3.3%).
Energy Technology (14.6% of the index) contributed to the index’s underperformance, falling 7.5%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.5% of the index) was down 2.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 8.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was down 7.2%.
Top 10 Performers: CLIR, NHHH, BRDS, NILI, FPX, ATLX, GIGA, ABML, WAVE, LTBR


Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended September 22, 2023

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

<div><div><div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p>Global equities sold off this week after more hawkish language from the Federal Reserve. The MSCI World Index fell 2.77%, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 2.92%.</p></li><li><p>The Fed kept rates at 5.25-5.50% but warned additional rate hikes are possible.</p></li><li><p>The NASDAQ declined 3.62%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 finished the five days down 3.78%.</p></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Global equities sold off this week after more hawkish language from the Federal Reserve. The MSCI World Index fell 2.77%, while the S&amp;P 500 dropped 2.92%.The Fed kept rates at 5.25-5.50% but warned additional rate hikes are possible.The NASDAQ declined 3.62%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 finished the five days down 3.78%.

The Highlights - Cannabis News for the Week Ending September 22, 2023

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 0.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.5%).</li><li>Energy Technology (15.0% of the index) contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 1.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.3% of the index) was down 2%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.6%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 3.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: MULN, CMC, FFIE, NKLA, CRGE, WUC, NNOMF, XOS, AZRE, CPTN</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 0.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 0.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.5%).Energy Technology (15.0% of the index) contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 1.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.3% of the index) was down 2%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.6%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions was up 3.7%.Top 10 Performers: MULN, CMC, FFIE, NKLA, CRGE, WUC, NNOMF, XOS, AZRE, CPTN

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended September 15, 2023

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended September 22, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index underperformed the broader market, falling 5.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (down...

Water Tower Research

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

The Highlights - Cannabis News for the Week Ending September 22, 2023

Global equities sold off this week after more hawkish language from the Federal Reserve. The MSCI World Index fell 2.77%, while the S&P 500 dropped...

Water Tower Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended September 15, 2023

The WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 0.8% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down...

Water Tower Research