Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Crypto

<ul>
<li>The squeeze up over the past few days on Bitcoin looks to have ended after testing the trend resistance</li>
<li>The overall picture still argues for a trend down to at least 30k, which may also be a warning sign for equity indices</li>
<li>Over the short term, US equity indices have remained well correlated to movements in bitcoin. The reflection &amp; suggestion here is that risk sentiment may once again be waning.</li>
</ul>


The squeeze up over the past few days on Bitcoin looks to have ended after testing the trend resistance
The overall picture still argues for a trend down to at least 30k, which may also be a warning sign for equity indices
Over the short term, US equity indices have remained well correlated to movements in bitcoin. The reflection &amp; suggestion here is that risk sentiment may once again be waning.


Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The break below 29k leaves the way open for at least 29k if not 20k (45% lower)</li>
<li>It’s recent correlation to US equities suggests further pain ahead for stocks</li>
<li>Ultimately this looks like nothing more than a pure speculative market that went too far with too much excitement and is now on it's way back down to Earth</li>
</ul>


The break below 29k leaves the way open for at least 29k if not 20k (45% lower)
It’s recent correlation to US equities suggests further pain ahead for stocks
Ultimately this looks like nothing more than a pure speculative market that went too far with too much excitement and is now on it's way back down to Earth


Bitcoin's Break Lower Is Warning Sign for Equities

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>The Hindenburg Omen is a bit of a controversial indicator but when combined with chart break points/catalysts, it becomes are more reliable set up with timing constraints.</li>
<li>Breadth deterioration is a key component for top building. NDX 15,300 and Russell 2,100 major inflection supports hang in the balance.</li>
<li>Late January cycle associated with false breakouts but will give us a preview of what lies ahead in Q2 if we manage re take support pivots.</li>
</ul>


The Hindenburg Omen is a bit of a controversial indicator but when combined with chart break points/catalysts, it becomes are more reliable set up with timing constraints.
Breadth deterioration is a key component for top building. NDX 15,300 and Russell 2,100 major inflection supports hang in the balance.
Late January cycle associated with false breakouts but will give us a preview of what lies ahead in Q2 if we manage re take support pivots.


Hindenburg Omen and Q1 Inflection Catalysts

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.</li>
<li>These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.</li>
<li>This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.
These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.
This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.


Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Bitcoin Squeeze Comes to an End

the squeeze up in Bitcoin over the past week looks to be ending. This may also be a short term warning sign for equity indices

Shyam Devani

Bitcoin's Break Lower Is Warning Sign for Equities

Bitcoin's latest break seems consistent with the break also seen on the Russell 2000 Index. Both are likely to suffer more

Shyam Devani

Hindenburg Omen and Q1 Inflection Catalysts

The Hindenburg Omen is a bit of a controversial indicator but when combined with chart break points/catalysts, it becomes are more reliable set up...

Thomas Schroeder

Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

Risk-off signals are abating which is an encouraging sign. Charts Highlighted: IWM, IWC, JETS, BAM, CBRE, INVH, JLL, HHC, JOE, MMI, APTS, CTO, AMT,...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research