Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off.  All the major averages remain in downtrends and there continues to be an absence of bottoming patterns. Concerns that we have highlighted over the past several months continue to lead us to our intact cautious outlook.  In this report we highlight important technical levels and indicators, and highlight a bright spot for investors within the Consumer Staples Sector.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

We remain skeptical of the market's upside potential, as we are not sure if anything actually changed in Fed policy, or as a result of the U.S./China trade ceasefire, which has seemingly raised more questions than answers. With that said, 2,817 remains the key resistance level in focus on the S&amp;P 500. In today’s report we highlight attractive opportunities within Airlines, and Home Health Care Services.

We remain skeptical of the market's upside potential, as we are not sure if anything actually changed in Fed policy, or as a result of the U.S./China trade ceasefire, which has seemingly raised more questions than answers. With that said, 2,817 remains the key resistance level in focus on the S&amp;P 500. In today’s report we highlight attractive opportunities within Airlines, and Home Health Care Services.

U.S. Equity Strategy: S&P 500 Fails at Resistance

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the market. Continued volatility remains our expectation, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the February 2018 lows will be tested, with new YTD lows a very real possibility.  In today’s report we reiterate our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups within Utilities and Financials.

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as the bellwether of global currencies, something seems amiss. Higher interest rates have doused the market’s advance, with 10-year yields double what they once were just three years ago. Investors are being jostled about as a determination is made as to whether the Fed has gone too far and too fast. Our concern here is that the Fed is creating a conundrum, indicating that higher rates are still forthcoming despite what we, and the market, are viewing as the possible end of the bull market...In our November Strategy publication, we outline a host of indicators we are watching for signs of the market's health.  In addition we highlight a number of actionable setups within Health care, Consumer Staples and Technology.

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Bearish U.S. Outlook Intact

Wednesday's rally in U.S. equities was likely nothing more than a brief bear market rally, as confirmed by Thursday's sell-off. All the major...

Vermilion Research

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: S&P 500 Fails at Resistance

We remain skeptical of the market's upside potential, as we are not sure if anything actually changed in Fed policy, or as a result of the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: How Much Worse Can It Get?

A breakout late last week in the high yield spread over 10-year Treasuries can now be added to the already long list of concerns we have for the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy & Sector Commentaries: Defensive Sectors Leading = Unhealthy Market

The “Big” rally has now faded less than a week from its start. While many point to a robust economy, strong GDP, and a strengthening U.S. dollar as...

Vermilion Research