Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.</li>
<li>Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.</li>
<li>As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&amp;P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.


Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets—as I long have warned. </li>
<li>Meanwhile, Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter &amp; investors are wary buying its LBO bonds needed to help fund the deal. </li>
<li>
Could Elon be thinking it's time to sell now BBB-rated Tesla bonds to raise a few extra billion dollars?</li>
</ul>



Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets—as I long have warned. 
Meanwhile, Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter &amp; investors are wary buying its LBO bonds needed to help fund the deal. 

Could Elon be thinking it's time to sell now BBB-rated Tesla bonds to raise a few extra billion dollars?


Is Elon About To Tap Tesla For Billions in Debt To Bolster Cash—And Help Him Buy Twitter?

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Dominance of retail investors in US equity market may explain disparity between data on investor positioning and more negative sentiment surveys</li>
<li>Households’ equity positions can be shown to be directly related to the US unemployment rate, and it reactive than anticipatory</li>
<li>With unemployment set to test 6% of workforce, equities will continue to sell-off. Yet, this looks like the final down-leg of this bear market</li>
</ul>


Dominance of retail investors in US equity market may explain disparity between data on investor positioning and more negative sentiment surveys
Households’ equity positions can be shown to be directly related to the US unemployment rate, and it reactive than anticipatory
With unemployment set to test 6% of workforce, equities will continue to sell-off. Yet, this looks like the final down-leg of this bear market


The Final Bear Phase: America’s Retail Investors Are Only Just Starting To Panic

<ul>
<li>Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.</li>
<li>We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.</li>
<li>Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.</li>
</ul>


Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.
We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.
Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.


Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

The bear market rally we have been discussing since Sept. 27 has begun, with over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes $SPX $QQQ $NDX...

Vermilion Research

Is Elon About To Tap Tesla For Billions in Debt To Bolster Cash—And Help Him Buy Twitter?

Tesla is burning billions as sales are slowing in its most important markets. Elon also owes billions to pay for Twitter & investors are wary of...

Vicki Bryan

The Final Bear Phase: America’s Retail Investors Are Only Just Starting To Panic

Dominance of retail investors in US equity market is related to the US unemployment rate. With this set to test 6%, equities will continue to sell...

Michael J. Howell

Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

A bear market rally (+10% from the lows) remains in play as long as the $SPX remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the $IWM remains above...

Vermilion Research

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Weekly update of spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global markets. We analyse the best trades based on the vols surfaces, and update on any...

Simon Harris