Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>In the absence of national leadership, individual states have been introducing a second wave of lockdowns to mitigate rising COVID-19 infections. Lockdown fatigue over the Christmas period could result in rising infection rates into 2021, thereby raising questions about the prospective state of the economy next year. </p>
<p>The outlook for the economy will hinge on the political courage and enthusiasm of state and local governments to impose and enforce any new measures aimed at restricting social movements. Despite rising COVID-19 infections, the economy continues to expand during Q4.</p>
<p>Current S&amp;P500 revenue forecasts for 2021 do not appear to embrace either further meaningful state-by-state shutdowns or significant fiscal stimulus. The impact of another fiscal boost could be over-hyped, particularly if there is a repeat of households' thrifty behaviour during Q2.</p>
<p>US equity small-cap valuations are historically rich, but they are somewhat vulnerable to near-term economic dislocations due to the return of shutdowns early next year. These could destroy the current state of very bullish earnings expectations for 2021 H1.  </p>

In the absence of national leadership, individual states have been introducing a second wave of lockdowns to mitigate rising COVID-19 infections. Lockdown fatigue over the Christmas period could result in rising infection rates into 2021, thereby raising questions about the prospective state of the economy next year. 
The outlook for the economy will hinge on the political courage and enthusiasm of state and local governments to impose and enforce any new measures aimed at restricting social movements. Despite rising COVID-19 infections, the economy continues to expand during Q4.
Current S&amp;P500 revenue forecasts for 2021 do not appear to embrace either further meaningful state-by-state shutdowns or significant fiscal stimulus. The impact of another fiscal boost could be over-hyped, particularly if there is a repeat of households' thrifty behaviour during Q2.
US equity small-cap valuations are historically rich, but they are somewhat vulnerable to near-term economic dislocations due to the return of shutdowns early next year. These could destroy the current state of very bullish earnings expectations for 2021 H1.  

New US Shutdowns Raise Questions About the Economic Outlook and Small-Cap Equity Valuations

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p style="text-align: justify;">In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight actionable opportunities within our <span>Manufacturing, Transportation, M</span>aterials, Technology, &amp; Consumer Discretionary Sectors.</p>

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight actionable opportunities within our Manufacturing, Transportation, Materials, Technology, &amp; Consumer Discretionary Sectors.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>A short while ago, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201116-1258362/1258362_tdec215addconsult.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> effective after the close of trading on 18 December. The deletion will be announced later.</p><p>S&amp;P DJI have also announced they will be conducting a <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/governance/consultations/sp500consultationonimplementationoftslaaddition11-16-20.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market consultation</a> on whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> should be added to the S&amp;P500 all at once or in two tranches to reduce the impact of the funding trade.</p><p>From the numbers, the market should be able to absorb the buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and the selling on the other index constituents pretty easily. However, with Christmas just a week away from the implementation date and possibly lower liquidity, market participants may have different views and the trade could be split into two tranches.</p>

A short while ago, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced the inclusion of Tesla Motors (TSLA US) in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) effective after the close of trading on 18 December. The deletion will be announced later.S&amp;P DJI have also announced they will be conducting a market consultation on whether Tesla Motors (TSLA US) should be added to the S&amp;P500 all at once or in two tranches to reduce the impact of the funding trade.From the numbers, the market should be able to absorb the buying on Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and the selling on the other index constituents pretty easily. However, with Christmas just a week away from the implementation date and possibly lower liquidity, market participants may have different views and the trade could be split into two tranches.

Tesla: S&P500 Inclusion (Finally) Secured

Macroeconomics

<p>The outcome of the 5 January Senate races in Georgia could determine whether Democrats gain effective control of the upper chamber, thereby increasing the chances of an unfettered economic agenda being pushed by a Biden Administration. The corporate sector will be adversely impacted by the Biden Administration's planned economic measures, while the yield curve should steepen due to higher government borrowing.</p>
<p>The US labour market continues to heal at a much faster rate than envisaged by the Fed, despite widespread fears of a fiscal cliff engulfing the economy. Prospective inflation trends will dictate the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate off its zero-bound floor.</p>
<div>The second wave spread of the COVID-19 virus has been faster-than-anticipated, but an incoming Biden Administration will have to wait until after inauguration to implement national measures to mitigate rising infections. There will be great reluctance to sanction extended local lockdowns with the onset of the Christmas holiday season, thereby implying rising infections for the foreseeable future.</div>
<div></div>
<div>There are rumours already circulating about new appointments under a Biden Administration, including the replacement of Fed Chair Powell when his term expires in 2022.</div>

The outcome of the 5 January Senate races in Georgia could determine whether Democrats gain effective control of the upper chamber, thereby increasing the chances of an unfettered economic agenda being pushed by a Biden Administration. The corporate sector will be adversely impacted by the Biden Administration's planned economic measures, while the yield curve should steepen due to higher government borrowing.
The US labour market continues to heal at a much faster rate than envisaged by the Fed, despite widespread fears of a fiscal cliff engulfing the economy. Prospective inflation trends will dictate the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate off its zero-bound floor.
The second wave spread of the COVID-19 virus has been faster-than-anticipated, but an incoming Biden Administration will have to wait until after inauguration to implement national measures to mitigate rising infections. There will be great reluctance to sanction extended local lockdowns with the onset of the Christmas holiday season, thereby implying rising infections for the foreseeable future.

There are rumours already circulating about new appointments under a Biden Administration, including the replacement of Fed Chair Powell when his term expires in 2022.

US Financial Markets Ignore Economic Data as Election Outcome and COVID-19 Uncertainties Linger

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<p>We wanted to bring your attention to numerous bullish equity pattern setups in the US and Asia that are taking shape.</p><p>Bull triangulation in the SPX and NDX point to a major breakout higher with targets noted. Near term risk of a pullback is a buying opportunity. Our recent update and insight called for turning long near SPX 3,21-20 support where we put on risk in the US and Asia.</p><p>Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling laggard play.</p>

We wanted to bring your attention to numerous bullish equity pattern setups in the US and Asia that are taking shape.Bull triangulation in the SPX and NDX point to a major breakout higher with targets noted. Near term risk of a pullback is a buying opportunity. Our recent update and insight called for turning long near SPX 3,21-20 support where we put on risk in the US and Asia.Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling laggard play.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

New US Shutdowns Raise Questions About the Economic Outlook and Small-Cap Equity Valuations

Talk about more US lockdowns to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 has begun to impact investors' outlook for the economy. Bullish corporate earnings...

DeSaque Macro Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Remain Bullish

In our November Strategy book we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth. and highlight...

Vermilion Research

Tesla: S&P500 Inclusion (Finally) Secured

Tesla has been included in the S&P500 after 5 consecutive quarters of profitability. The passive buying on Tesla will be around US$54bn and the...

Brian Freitas

US Financial Markets Ignore Economic Data as Election Outcome and COVID-19 Uncertainties Linger

US financial markets are ignoring economic data. They are fixated with uncertainties related to the outcome of the elections and future strategies...

DeSaque Macro Research

Breakout Equity Patterns in Asia and US

Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling...

Thomas Schroeder