Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The logic behind the tariff is not just a slap in the face for a lot of other nations but also net imports over exports. </li>
<li>Companies benefitting from the globalization will suffer, and the ones with domestic-centric businesses with real assets in proximity may be less hurt. </li>
<li>This could accelerate the forming of new trading bloc that may change the current world order. </li>
</ul>


The logic behind the tariff is not just a slap in the face for a lot of other nations but also net imports over exports. 
Companies benefitting from the globalization will suffer, and the ones with domestic-centric businesses with real assets in proximity may be less hurt. 
This could accelerate the forming of new trading bloc that may change the current world order. 


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.</li>
<li>
CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.</li>
<li>
Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.</li>
</ul>



India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.

CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.

Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.


Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

<ul>
<li>Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  </li>
<li>M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. </li>
<li>10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  
M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. 
10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.


US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports. </li>
<li>China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia &amp; Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion. </li>
<li>There'll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down. </li>
</ul>


All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports. 
China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia &amp; Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion. 
There'll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down. 


US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.</li>
<li>The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024</li>
<li>We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates</li>
</ul>


Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.
The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024
We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates


Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Tariff: New World Order?

Tariffs could shift global trade dynamics, favoring domestic-focused companies and potentially leading to the formation of new trading blocs.

Henry Soediarko

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Gaudenz Schneider

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

Tariff: New World Order?

​Tariffs could shift global trade dynamics, favoring domestic-focused companies and potentially leading to the formation of new trading blocs.

Henry Soediarko

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 - 13 April)

​RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Gaudenz Schneider

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

​Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

​US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

Tariffs could shift global trade dynamics, favoring domestic-focused companies and potentially leading to the formation of new trading blocs.

RBI expected to cut rates in India, CPI data and option expiries in focus for several economies next week. Exchange holiday in India.

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...