Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Jul'24 was the weakest month for NFPs, and Jun-Aug'24 the weakest 3-month period, since Dec'20. Sahm Rule predicts recession: unemployment rate (averaging 4.2% Jun-Aug'24) is 0.57pp above 12m low (Nov'23-Jan'24).</li>
<li>ISM manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 11 of past 12 months, with new orders slumping anew in the past 5 months -- suggesting a sharp cyclical downturn ahead.</li>
<li>Core PCE inflation is 2.6%YoY (and just below 2%MoM annualized) in May-Jul'24. That's enough to ensure a 25bp cut next week. Recession risk necessitates 50bp cut, but it won't happen. </li>
</ul>


Jul'24 was the weakest month for NFPs, and Jun-Aug'24 the weakest 3-month period, since Dec'20. Sahm Rule predicts recession: unemployment rate (averaging 4.2% Jun-Aug'24) is 0.57pp above 12m low (Nov'23-Jan'24).
ISM manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 11 of past 12 months, with new orders slumping anew in the past 5 months -- suggesting a sharp cyclical downturn ahead.
Core PCE inflation is 2.6%YoY (and just below 2%MoM annualized) in May-Jul'24. That's enough to ensure a 25bp cut next week. Recession risk necessitates 50bp cut, but it won't happen. 


US: Recession Risk up Sharply as NFP and ISM Manufacturing Signal Downturn Ahead

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500 bull flagging and looks for break to upside.</li>
<li>US Dollar bounces off par. More room in the tank?</li>
<li>Copper and Natural Gas at interesting junctures. Bulls on notice. </li>
</ul>


S&amp;P 500 bull flagging and looks for break to upside.
US Dollar bounces off par. More room in the tank?
Copper and Natural Gas at interesting junctures. Bulls on notice. 


<ul>
<li>Energized Democrats have narrowed the polling gap, with <em>The Economist</em> average showing Harris likely to win 277 Electoral College votes, although RCP's average shows Trump narrowly ahead in swing states.</li>
<li>This is no longer 1968 Redux, despite many similarities. RFK Jr's withdrawal means there's no George Wallace to erode Democratic votes. Centrist Harris is positioning well to capture swing voters. </li>
<li>Both candidates would further increase public debt, but Harris has more credible funding plans. The debates will still be crucial, but a Harris win would be marginally better for markets. </li>
</ul>


Energized Democrats have narrowed the polling gap, with The Economist average showing Harris likely to win 277 Electoral College votes, although RCP's average shows Trump narrowly ahead in swing states.
This is no longer 1968 Redux, despite many similarities. RFK Jr's withdrawal means there's no George Wallace to erode Democratic votes. Centrist Harris is positioning well to capture swing voters. 
Both candidates would further increase public debt, but Harris has more credible funding plans. The debates will still be crucial, but a Harris win would be marginally better for markets. 


US: Presidential Race Narrows After a United DNC; Debates to Be Decisive

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US: Recession Risk up Sharply as NFP and ISM Manufacturing Signal Downturn Ahead

Unemployment rate (avg 4.2% in Jun-Jul'24) is 0.57% higher than Nov'23-Jan'24, indicating recession ahead; so does deterioration in ISM mfg new...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

Greenback Rebound Commodity Headwind?

S&P 500 bullish, US Dollar rebounds, Copper and Natural Gas at critical points for bulls. Healthcare continues to act well in a "value" world.

Douglas Busch

US: Presidential Race Narrows After a United DNC; Debates to Be Decisive

Harris ahead in the popular vote now, but RCP has Trump still winning Electoral College. Centrist Harris stances likely to win over swing voters,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

US: Recession Risk up Sharply as NFP and ISM Manufacturing Signal Downturn Ahead

Unemployment rate (avg 4.2% in Jun-Jul'24) is 0.57% higher than Nov'23-Jan'24, indicating recession ahead; so does deterioration in ISM mfg new...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

Greenback Rebound Commodity Headwind?

​S&P 500 bullish, US Dollar rebounds, Copper and Natural Gas at critical points for bulls. Healthcare continues to act well in a "value" world.

Douglas Busch

US: Presidential Race Narrows After a United DNC; Debates to Be Decisive

​Harris ahead in the popular vote now, but RCP has Trump still winning Electoral College. Centrist Harris stances likely to win over swing voters,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 bullish, US Dollar rebounds, Copper and Natural Gas at critical points for bulls. Healthcare continues to act well in a "value" world.

Harris ahead in the popular vote now, but RCP has Trump still winning Electoral College. Centrist Harris stances likely to win over swing voters,...