Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP accelerated to 2.8%QoQsaar growth in Q2CY24 (from 1.4% in Q1), with sharp QoQ acceleration in PCE, investment and government spending, and restocking after three quarters of destocking. </li>
<li>In YoY terms, real GDP grew 3.1%YoY in Q2CY24 led by 5.8%YoY growth in gross investment. Core PCE inflation edged up to 2.63% YoY in Jun'24 (from May's 2.62%YoY). </li>
<li>The annualized rise in core PCE in H1CY24 was 3.33%, with only one month (May'24) of less than 2%MoM (annualized) increase -- insufficient to allow a rate cut before Sep'24. </li>
</ul>


Real GDP accelerated to 2.8%QoQsaar growth in Q2CY24 (from 1.4% in Q1), with sharp QoQ acceleration in PCE, investment and government spending, and restocking after three quarters of destocking. 
In YoY terms, real GDP grew 3.1%YoY in Q2CY24 led by 5.8%YoY growth in gross investment. Core PCE inflation edged up to 2.63% YoY in Jun'24 (from May's 2.62%YoY). 
The annualized rise in core PCE in H1CY24 was 3.33%, with only one month (May'24) of less than 2%MoM (annualized) increase -- insufficient to allow a rate cut before Sep'24. 


US: Strong Growth, Core PCE Inflation at 2.6%YoY Preclude an Immediate Rate Cut

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets.</li>
<li>The RTY rotation story is not all rosy. Momentum suggests that we are not as concentrated in equity markets as we think</li>
<li>Three weeks ago, when the dovish CPI print landed, the immediate reaction was a sell-off in large caps followed by an influx into small caps, with RTY rising &gt;10% over the week following the release. </li>
</ul>


Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets.
The RTY rotation story is not all rosy. Momentum suggests that we are not as concentrated in equity markets as we think
Three weeks ago, when the dovish CPI print landed, the immediate reaction was a sell-off in large caps followed by an influx into small caps, with RTY rising &gt;10% over the week following the release. 


Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

Podcast of business and financial stories, Behind the Money

Behind the Money

Podcast of business and financial stories

From hostile takeovers to C-suite intrigue, Behind the Money takes you inside the business and financial stories of the moment with reporting from Financial Times journalists around the world.

<ul><li>Business executives blame regulations for hindering innovation and making products more expensive</li><li>Supreme Court overturned Chevron deference, giving businesses more power to challenge regulations</li><li>The end of Chevron rule may lead to confusion and legal challenges for businesses in regulated industries</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Business executives blame regulations for hindering innovation and making products more expensiveSupreme Court overturned Chevron deference, giving businesses more power to challenge regulationsThe end of Chevron rule may lead to confusion and legal challenges for businesses in regulated industriesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.</li>
<li>Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.</li>
<li>The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.</li>
</ul>


Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.
Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.
The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.


Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

<ul>
<li>24 days after his catastrophic debate, and 29 days before the Democratic convention, President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. </li>
<li>The latest polls showed Trump leading Biden by 3pp in the average of polls, including big leads in all seven battleground states. Harris is marginally closer in match-ups against Trump. </li>
<li>Trump-Vance have momentum after RNC. To be competitive, Harris (if endorsed by DNC) would need to pick an exciting, moderate candidate (eg, PA governor Shapiro) and hew to the centre.</li>
</ul>


24 days after his catastrophic debate, and 29 days before the Democratic convention, President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. 
The latest polls showed Trump leading Biden by 3pp in the average of polls, including big leads in all seven battleground states. Harris is marginally closer in match-ups against Trump. 
Trump-Vance have momentum after RNC. To be competitive, Harris (if endorsed by DNC) would need to pick an exciting, moderate candidate (eg, PA governor Shapiro) and hew to the centre.


Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US: Strong Growth, Core PCE Inflation at 2.6%YoY Preclude an Immediate Rate Cut

Core PCE increased 3.33% annualized in H1CY24, and was up 2.63%YoY in Jun'24. With real GDP growing 2.8%QoQsaar and 3.1%YoY in Q2CY24, the FOMC is...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets The RTY rotation story is not all rosy Momentum suggests that we are not as...

Steno Research

Less Regulation, More Problems?

The overturning of the Chevron deference by the Supreme Court may lead to increased challenges of regulations by businesses, causing uncertainty...

Behind the Money

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $IWM Still Above Major Support at $210, but $SPX $QQQ are in Pullback Mode. Possible this...

Vermilion Research

Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US: Strong Growth, Core PCE Inflation at 2.6%YoY Preclude an Immediate Rate Cut

Core PCE increased 3.33% annualized in H1CY24, and was up 2.63%YoY in Jun'24. With real GDP growing 2.8%QoQsaar and 3.1%YoY in Q2CY24, the FOMC is...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets

Take aways: As liquidity and growth improve so will equity markets The RTY rotation story is not all rosy Momentum suggests that we are not as...

Steno Research

Less Regulation, More Problems?

The overturning of the Chevron deference by the Supreme Court may lead to increased challenges of regulations by businesses, causing uncertainty...

Behind the Money

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $IWM Still Above Major Support at $210, but $SPX $QQQ are in Pullback Mode. Possible this...

Vermilion Research

Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

​President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...

Prasenjit K. Basu

President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...