Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.</li>
<li>USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.</li>
</ul>


Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.
Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.
USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.


Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen! Markets are still busy trying to digest the first rounds of the French Election, with Le Pen’s party looking historically strong.</li><li>Premiums on both French equities and bonds compared to German equivalents remain elevated, but we are starting to see the first signs of markets downscaling the risks of placing money in France.</li><li>One of the main risks of French fixed income (in particular) is the historical selloff in French duration from Japan during periods when right-wing parties are gaining political grounds, just as we saw in 2017 when Le Pen reached the second round.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen! Markets are still busy trying to digest the first rounds of the French Election, with Le Pen’s party looking historically strong.Premiums on both French equities and bonds compared to German equivalents remain elevated, but we are starting to see the first signs of markets downscaling the risks of placing money in France.One of the main risks of French fixed income (in particular) is the historical selloff in French duration from Japan during periods when right-wing parties are gaining political grounds, just as we saw in 2017 when Le Pen reached the second round.

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning into the Europe trade despite election risks

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

<ul>
<li>Amid all-time highs, the S&amp;P 500 faces recession risks with economic indicators like unemployment and housing starts signaling downturns, impacting broader market stability.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500's growth, heavily reliant on mega-cap tech stocks, contrasts sharply with broader indices, driven by AI advancements and global revenue streams, suggesting market top-heaviness.</li>
<li>Given recession precursors and market frothiness, a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&amp;P 500 and Short Russell 2000) is proposed to balance potential gains with reduced risks.</li>
</ul>


Amid all-time highs, the S&amp;P 500 faces recession risks with economic indicators like unemployment and housing starts signaling downturns, impacting broader market stability.
The S&amp;P 500's growth, heavily reliant on mega-cap tech stocks, contrasts sharply with broader indices, driven by AI advancements and global revenue streams, suggesting market top-heaviness.
Given recession precursors and market frothiness, a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&amp;P 500 and Short Russell 2000) is proposed to balance potential gains with reduced risks.


Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P Spreads

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally. Initial assessment suggests that shooting will boost Trump’s chances of winning the...

Mint Finance

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning into the Europe trade despite election risks

Greetings from Copenhagen!Markets are still busy trying to digest the first rounds of the French Election, with Le Pen’s party looking...

Steno Research

Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P Spreads

S&P 500 faces recession risks due to economic indicators, tech stock reliance, and market frothiness, prompting a spread trade strategy for...

Mint Finance

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally. Initial assessment suggests that shooting will boost Trump’s chances of winning the...

Mint Finance

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds are leaning into the Europe trade despite election risks

Greetings from Copenhagen!Markets are still busy trying to digest the first rounds of the French Election, with Le Pen’s party looking...

Steno Research

Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P Spreads

​S&P 500 faces recession risks due to economic indicators, tech stock reliance, and market frothiness, prompting a spread trade strategy for...

Mint Finance

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

S&P 500 faces recession risks due to economic indicators, tech stock reliance, and market frothiness, prompting a spread trade strategy for...