Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<p><em><strong>There is no global "second wave" of Covid, but the Schiller CAPE ratio is at levels it has rarely exceeded in the past 150 years, while the "Buffett Indicator" of market-cap to GDP is at an all-time high of 1.78x. Both valuation measures suggest the equity market is ripe for a significant sell-off, aided by the growing uncertainty surrounding the US election. </strong></em></p><p>The global market sell-off this month (especially since 16 September) has been attributed to a "Second Wave" of new Covid cases, but this simply reflects the over-representation of Britons (and British newspapers) in the global business media. There is an undoubted second wave in the UK and France, but no discernible second wave globally. Among the 10 worst-hit countries globally, #8 Spain has had a second wave that isn't quite over, and Russia has a mild second wave that is barely at half its mid-May peak. But the top-3 Covid-hit countries (the US, India, Brazil) are past their peaks, with Brazil and the US now well below their end-July peak in new cases.   </p><p>The sell-off in equity markets, however, owes primarily to the sell signal from two of the best long-term measures of equity value -- the Schiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E ratio) and Buffett's favourite indicator, market-cap to GDP.  The CAPE has rarely been above 30 in the past 150 years -- but it was above that level at the end of August 2020 (and also at end-February 2020). The equity market invariably sells off when valuations are this rich. Similarly, the US market capitalization to GDP ratio is now at an all-time high of 1.78x -- and this is the reddest of red flags, suggesting the market is ripe for a sell-off. </p><p>Given the uncertainties over the US election, and particularly the fact that the likely winner of the US election (Joe Biden) is poised to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (and to 30.8% for any corporate that outsources any manufacturing or services outside the US), US corporates' post-tax earnings will suffer. Consequently, we recommend that investors should Underweight Equities in the runup to the US presidential election.   </p>

There is no global "second wave" of Covid, but the Schiller CAPE ratio is at levels it has rarely exceeded in the past 150 years, while the "Buffett Indicator" of market-cap to GDP is at an all-time high of 1.78x. Both valuation measures suggest the equity market is ripe for a significant sell-off, aided by the growing uncertainty surrounding the US election. The global market sell-off this month (especially since 16 September) has been attributed to a "Second Wave" of new Covid cases, but this simply reflects the over-representation of Britons (and British newspapers) in the global business media. There is an undoubted second wave in the UK and France, but no discernible second wave globally. Among the 10 worst-hit countries globally, #8 Spain has had a second wave that isn't quite over, and Russia has a mild second wave that is barely at half its mid-May peak. But the top-3 Covid-hit countries (the US, India, Brazil) are past their peaks, with Brazil and the US now well below their end-July peak in new cases.   The sell-off in equity markets, however, owes primarily to the sell signal from two of the best long-term measures of equity value -- the Schiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E ratio) and Buffett's favourite indicator, market-cap to GDP.  The CAPE has rarely been above 30 in the past 150 years -- but it was above that level at the end of August 2020 (and also at end-February 2020). The equity market invariably sells off when valuations are this rich. Similarly, the US market capitalization to GDP ratio is now at an all-time high of 1.78x -- and this is the reddest of red flags, suggesting the market is ripe for a sell-off. Given the uncertainties over the US election, and particularly the fact that the likely winner of the US election (Joe Biden) is poised to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (and to 30.8% for any corporate that outsources any manufacturing or services outside the US), US corporates' post-tax earnings will suffer. Consequently, we recommend that investors should Underweight Equities in the runup to the US presidential election.   

There's No Global "Second Wave" Of Covid, but Long-Term Valuations Are Very Elevated

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<p>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) embraced enhanced forward guidance last week by committing the federal funds rate to remain at zero until 2023 Q4 due to downside risks to their economic outlook. Monetary conditions will, therefore, remain stimulative for a protracted period, thereby potentially imparting risks if the economic recovery surprises to the upside.</p><div>The FOMC have upwardly revised their near-term growth outlook for the economy, while unemployment is eventually expected to decline to its natural rate by 2023 Q4 along with inflation reaching its 2% target. Downside risks still dominate the mindset of FOMC members, analogous to what prevailed after the financial crisis, even though there were no serious economic imbalances entering the Great Lockdown.</div><div></div><div>Downside risks to the medium-term economic outlook will be determined by the success in curbing the continued spread of COVID-19 and further fiscal policy support from federal government. The FOMC will not tighten policy before unemployment reaches its natural rate in a major departure from previous conduct.</div><div></div><div>The Fed's prospective policy outlook should be positive for US equities, particularly if the Fed can succeed in preventing the onset of significantly higher bond yields. The recent euphoria about e-commerce due to COVID-19 has taken information technology-related bullish sentiment back to levels akin to the late-1990s.</div><div></div><div>Historically, company dominance in US equity sectors has been ever-changing as smaller companies drive business and technological change, but the current market leaders are not new entities. Bullish investors have been seduced into the idea that a decade of profound technological innovations are pending, but the recent slowing of US patent applications would suggest otherwise.</div>

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) embraced enhanced forward guidance last week by committing the federal funds rate to remain at zero until 2023 Q4 due to downside risks to their economic outlook. Monetary conditions will, therefore, remain stimulative for a protracted period, thereby potentially imparting risks if the economic recovery surprises to the upside.The FOMC have upwardly revised their near-term growth outlook for the economy, while unemployment is eventually expected to decline to its natural rate by 2023 Q4 along with inflation reaching its 2% target. Downside risks still dominate the mindset of FOMC members, analogous to what prevailed after the financial crisis, even though there were no serious economic imbalances entering the Great Lockdown.Downside risks to the medium-term economic outlook will be determined by the success in curbing the continued spread of COVID-19 and further fiscal policy support from federal government. The FOMC will not tighten policy before unemployment reaches its natural rate in a major departure from previous conduct.The Fed's prospective policy outlook should be positive for US equities, particularly if the Fed can succeed in preventing the onset of significantly higher bond yields. The recent euphoria about e-commerce due to COVID-19 has taken information technology-related bullish sentiment back to levels akin to the late-1990s.Historically, company dominance in US equity sectors has been ever-changing as smaller companies drive business and technological change, but the current market leaders are not new entities. Bullish investors have been seduced into the idea that a decade of profound technological innovations are pending, but the recent slowing of US patent applications would suggest otherwise.

Paranoid Fed: Wary of Downside Economic Risks and Gambles on Limited Positive Surprises by 2023

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle timeline toward October 19. Core shorts are in SPX and RTY. DJI is a fresh underperform and short candidate on a bounce.</p><p>Europe's impulsive break down out of bear triangulation patterns is in line with our short call from Eurostoxx 50 3,400. Euro banks leading the route with the periphery in pursuit.</p><p>In Asia, we were short for breakdowns in Korea, Taiwan and HK. Japan is just starting to see the macro cycle peak and turn south. Singapore, Malaysia have been high conviction shorts and now we are seeing the stronger horses break down.</p><p>Fresh sell levels are outlined in Asia with primary downside targets.</p>

Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle timeline toward October 19. Core shorts are in SPX and RTY. DJI is a fresh underperform and short candidate on a bounce.Europe's impulsive break down out of bear triangulation patterns is in line with our short call from Eurostoxx 50 3,400. Euro banks leading the route with the periphery in pursuit.In Asia, we were short for breakdowns in Korea, Taiwan and HK. Japan is just starting to see the macro cycle peak and turn south. Singapore, Malaysia have been high conviction shorts and now we are seeing the stronger horses break down.Fresh sell levels are outlined in Asia with primary downside targets.

US Downside Targets with European and Asia Breakdowns

Ping An Digital Economic Research Center

Zheng Zeng

Ping An Digital Economic Research Center (DERC)

Ping An - DERC

Ping An Digital Economic Research Center (DERC) utilizes more than 50 TB of high frequency data points, more than 30 years of historical data and more than 1.5 billion data points to drive research on the “AI + Macro Forecast” and provide insights and methods towards precise macroeconomic trends. 

Ping An DERC is a research center for Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. (“Ping An”) is a world-leading technology-powered retail financial services group. With over 204 million retail customers and 534 million internet users, Ping An is one of the largest financial services companies in the world.

<p>According to the World Economic Forum, out of the top 10 long-term global risks, five are related to environment and climate change. To respond to the urgent need of mitigating climate risks, regulators, companies, and investors have all stepped up to aim for more transparent and thorough disclosure of companies’ sustainability performance. Compared to ESG disclosures, climate risk disclosures are more demanding of companies as they require an explicit link between climate risks and financial impact. Fewer companies have climate risk disclosures. For example, out of all China domiciled companies listed in US exchanges, 13 have ESG reports, but zero mention “climate risks” and only two mention the broad term of “climate change.” However, climate risk issues have become more prevalent so climate-specific disclosures have become an important consideration for both investors and companies. Despite increasing adoption of climate disclosure frameworks such as the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), little is known on the extent to which companies actually follow the specific recommendations of such guidelines.</p>
<blockquote>
<div style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>Natural Language Processing Applications In analysis of Sustainability Reporting</strong></div>
</blockquote>
<div>In this study, we apply Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to 277 documents from 182 companies in S&amp;P500 and CSI300 that disclose climate risks to study the breadth and depth of their disclosures. We provide a deep dive into S&amp;P500 and CSI300 using textual analysis because they are the most representative indices of the United States and China, which are the world’s two largest economies and constitute 52 percent of the global equity market.[1]</div>
<div></div>
<div>
<div>Given the novelty of climate risk disclosure frameworks and their fast adoption, the identification of best practice benchmarks in a scalable fashion (e.g. using textual analysis to construct a “transparency index”) can allow investors to gauge the quality of firms’ climate disclosures, as well as help identify companies that make selective disclosures to misrepresent their climate risk profiles, i.e., those who might engage in “greenwashing.” A summary of our key findings is as follows:</div>
<div></div>
</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Japanese companies have the most frequent discussions of climate risks in their sustainability reports and European and US companies follow closely behind. Chinese companies significantly lag behind their global peers.</li>
<li>
<div>Among US and Chinese companies that disclose climate risks, we identify six unique themes across companies’ sustainability disclosure reports, including “Energy usage”, “Governance”, “Human rights and employee health and safety”, “Climate related risk management”, “Emissions”, and “GRI reporting and materiality.”</div>
</li>
<li>
<div>Climate-related metrics all have high disclosure rates, with the exception of land use. Financial impact metrics are not as well covered as climate-related metrics.</div>
</li>
<li>Recommendations to improve climate risk disclosures</li>
</ol>
</div>
<hr><hr>
<blockquote>
<h3><strong>Climate Disclosure in Charts</strong></h3>
</blockquote>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/683/original/image_975882052291600332734761.png?1600332736" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159683"></figure>
<div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Ping An Digital Economic Research Center; Company sustainability reports (S&amp;P500, CSI300)</div>
<p></p>
<hr>
<p>[1] Calculated from data obtained on Bloomberg terminal (August 24, 2020)</p>

According to the World Economic Forum, out of the top 10 long-term global risks, five are related to environment and climate change. To respond to the urgent need of mitigating climate risks, regulators, companies, and investors have all stepped up to aim for more transparent and thorough disclosure of companies’ sustainability performance. Compared to ESG disclosures, climate risk disclosures are more demanding of companies as they require an explicit link between climate risks and financial impact. Fewer companies have climate risk disclosures. For example, out of all China domiciled companies listed in US exchanges, 13 have ESG reports, but zero mention “climate risks” and only two mention the broad term of “climate change.” However, climate risk issues have become more prevalent so climate-specific disclosures have become an important consideration for both investors and companies. Despite increasing adoption of climate disclosure frameworks such as the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), little is known on the extent to which companies actually follow the specific recommendations of such guidelines.

Natural Language Processing Applications In analysis of Sustainability Reporting

In this study, we apply Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to 277 documents from 182 companies in S&amp;P500 and CSI300 that disclose climate risks to study the breadth and depth of their disclosures. We provide a deep dive into S&amp;P500 and CSI300 using textual analysis because they are the most representative indices of the United States and China, which are the world’s two largest economies and constitute 52 percent of the global equity market.[1]


Given the novelty of climate risk disclosure frameworks and their fast adoption, the identification of best practice benchmarks in a scalable fashion (e.g. using textual analysis to construct a “transparency index”) can allow investors to gauge the quality of firms’ climate disclosures, as well as help identify companies that make selective disclosures to misrepresent their climate risk profiles, i.e., those who might engage in “greenwashing.” A summary of our key findings is as follows:




Japanese companies have the most frequent discussions of climate risks in their sustainability reports and European and US companies follow closely behind. Chinese companies significantly lag behind their global peers.

Among US and Chinese companies that disclose climate risks, we identify six unique themes across companies’ sustainability disclosure reports, including “Energy usage”, “Governance”, “Human rights and employee health and safety”, “Climate related risk management”, “Emissions”, and “GRI reporting and materiality.”


Climate-related metrics all have high disclosure rates, with the exception of land use. Financial impact metrics are not as well covered as climate-related metrics.

Recommendations to improve climate risk disclosures




Climate Disclosure in Charts


Source: Ping An Digital Economic Research Center; Company sustainability reports (S&amp;P500, CSI300)


[1] Calculated from data obtained on Bloomberg terminal (August 24, 2020)

Where We Stand with Climate Disclosures and Why We Need Them

<p><em><strong>Biden still remains on course for victory. But vulnerable on China, he has proposed a 30.8% corporate tax rate for companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas. The improving economy will help Trump tighten the polls in October, and Biden is likely to lose ground after the three debates. Delayed postal/absentee ballots will likely mean an uncertain outcome on Election night, raising the likelihood of a protracted dispute about the result that makes 2000 seem tame. We recommend taking profits on equities by early-October, and being underweight equities through November. </strong></em></p><p>As expected, the presidential polls narrowed after the party conventions, particularly after the more slick Republican convention (much of it held in person with several speeches from the White House), which President Trump used to change the conversation from Covid-mismanagement to "law and order", particularly the issue of urban protests (against the killings by police of largely innocent black men) turning toward violence, vandalism and looting. Both conventions sought to reach out to the centrist voter, Biden by showcasing Republican supporters (ex-Gov. John Kasich, who was Trump's last rival in the 2016 race, ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell, and the family of the late Sen. John McCain), and Trump unusually showcasing black and women supporters in an unorthodox bid to appeal to centrists who may have thought he was racist/sexist. The actual polling "bump" that Trump received from the convention was modest (about 2 percentage points, albeit better than Biden's bump of less than 1pp in the average poll), but the betting odds narrowed sharply in the week after the Republican convention (with Trump coming within 1pp of Biden).</p><p>Since then, however, the race has returned to where it was in mid-August, with Biden having a handsome lead (average over 7.5 percentage points) in nationwide polls (and the betting odds), and retaining a solid lead in battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida) that Trump won in 2016. Trump leads narrowly in Ohio. But Biden has built a sizable lead in Arizona (where his closeness to late Sen. John McCain (R-Az) -- highlighted in the Democratic convention -- has helped) and North Carolina; the latter has been carried by a Democrat only twice in the last 52 years, the former only once in the past 72 years. If the election were held today, Biden would win by a wide margin in the Electoral College and popular vote. </p><p>However, the race will likely tighten in October, as the economy continues to recover (with a big QoQ rebound likely in 3Q 2020 GDP growth, announced at October-end), the US Covid curve continues to flatten (new-case numbers have averaged 39K in the past week, from a peak of 69K in the final week of July), and Trump gains a bit from the debates. Biden, vulnerable on the fact that China-trade was omitted from his convention, has a rash plan to impose a 30.8% corporate tax rate on companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas (likely to hit all large companies). Biden remains likely to win; but first, there will be uncertainty on Election night because postal/absentee ballots likely will not be counted that day -- exaggerating Trump's vote share, and seemingly tightening the election even more in the swing states. The uncertainty will make for a more volatile November in markets: with the likely winner calling for a 30.8% corporate tax rate, amid calls for insurrection from the losing side, we now expect an even larger sell-off (7-10%) in the market in November amid the growing uncertainty.   </p>

Biden still remains on course for victory. But vulnerable on China, he has proposed a 30.8% corporate tax rate for companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas. The improving economy will help Trump tighten the polls in October, and Biden is likely to lose ground after the three debates. Delayed postal/absentee ballots will likely mean an uncertain outcome on Election night, raising the likelihood of a protracted dispute about the result that makes 2000 seem tame. We recommend taking profits on equities by early-October, and being underweight equities through November. As expected, the presidential polls narrowed after the party conventions, particularly after the more slick Republican convention (much of it held in person with several speeches from the White House), which President Trump used to change the conversation from Covid-mismanagement to "law and order", particularly the issue of urban protests (against the killings by police of largely innocent black men) turning toward violence, vandalism and looting. Both conventions sought to reach out to the centrist voter, Biden by showcasing Republican supporters (ex-Gov. John Kasich, who was Trump's last rival in the 2016 race, ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell, and the family of the late Sen. John McCain), and Trump unusually showcasing black and women supporters in an unorthodox bid to appeal to centrists who may have thought he was racist/sexist. The actual polling "bump" that Trump received from the convention was modest (about 2 percentage points, albeit better than Biden's bump of less than 1pp in the average poll), but the betting odds narrowed sharply in the week after the Republican convention (with Trump coming within 1pp of Biden).Since then, however, the race has returned to where it was in mid-August, with Biden having a handsome lead (average over 7.5 percentage points) in nationwide polls (and the betting odds), and retaining a solid lead in battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida) that Trump won in 2016. Trump leads narrowly in Ohio. But Biden has built a sizable lead in Arizona (where his closeness to late Sen. John McCain (R-Az) -- highlighted in the Democratic convention -- has helped) and North Carolina; the latter has been carried by a Democrat only twice in the last 52 years, the former only once in the past 72 years. If the election were held today, Biden would win by a wide margin in the Electoral College and popular vote. However, the race will likely tighten in October, as the economy continues to recover (with a big QoQ rebound likely in 3Q 2020 GDP growth, announced at October-end), the US Covid curve continues to flatten (new-case numbers have averaged 39K in the past week, from a peak of 69K in the final week of July), and Trump gains a bit from the debates. Biden, vulnerable on the fact that China-trade was omitted from his convention, has a rash plan to impose a 30.8% corporate tax rate on companies that outsource manufacturing/services overseas (likely to hit all large companies). Biden remains likely to win; but first, there will be uncertainty on Election night because postal/absentee ballots likely will not be counted that day -- exaggerating Trump's vote share, and seemingly tightening the election even more in the swing states. The uncertainty will make for a more volatile November in markets: with the likely winner calling for a 30.8% corporate tax rate, amid calls for insurrection from the losing side, we now expect an even larger sell-off (7-10%) in the market in November amid the growing uncertainty.   

Trump's "Law & Order" Message Tightens the Polls, but Biden-Harris Still Well Ahead

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

There's No Global "Second Wave" Of Covid, but Long-Term Valuations Are Very Elevated

The

Prasenjit K. Basu

Paranoid Fed: Wary of Downside Economic Risks and Gambles on Limited Positive Surprises by 2023

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) embraced enhanced forward guidance last week by committing the federal funds rate to remain at zero until...

DeSaque Macro Research

US Downside Targets with European and Asia Breakdowns

Given high conviction bear pattern breakdowns in Europe and Asia, we are assuming the US cycle has more downside per our cycle. Core shorts are in...

Thomas Schroeder

Where We Stand with Climate Disclosures and Why We Need Them

Natural Language Processing Applications Inanalysis of Sustainability Reporting

Ping An - DERC

Trump's "Law & Order" Message Tightens the Polls, but Biden-Harris Still Well Ahead

As expected, the presidential polls narrowed after the party conventions, particul

Prasenjit K. Basu