Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU)</a> is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.</li>
<li>Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU)</a> could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.</li>
</ul>



Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.
Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.

Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.


Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and 2 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>There is between A$30m-A$135m to trade in the index changes and that is between 0.7-16 days of ADV in the stocks. Short interest has jumped in a few stocks.</li>
<li>We expect positioning to be lower than the passive trading in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nick-scali-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20803:1" rel="noopener">Nick Scali</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius</a>.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
There is between A$30m-A$135m to trade in the index changes and that is between 0.7-16 days of ADV in the stocks. Short interest has jumped in a few stocks.
We expect positioning to be lower than the passive trading in Nick Scali, Viva Energy Group, Perseus Mining, Austal Ltd and Healius.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Most major indices extended their April rally through May, but seasonal patterns suggest caution from here.</li>
<li>Implied volatility declined across most markets, but remains above historical medians in several key regions.</li>
<li>Vol premium analysis highlights a few standouts where short vol has historically outperformed.</li>
</ul>


Most major indices extended their April rally through May, but seasonal patterns suggest caution from here.
Implied volatility declined across most markets, but remains above historical medians in several key regions.
Vol premium analysis highlights a few standouts where short vol has historically outperformed.


Global Macro Outlook (June): From Rally to Reversal? Macro Trends Shift as June Unfolds

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brickworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2726:1" rel="noopener">Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU)</a> have executed a binding Combination Deed to implement an A$14bn merger that simplifies the company structure by eliminating crossholdings.</li>
<li>The merger ratio is a good one for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brickworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2726:1" rel="noopener">Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU)</a> shareholders and the benefits to both sets of shareholders should see the merger approved.</li>
<li>There will be large passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU)</a> from global and local index trackers and that could lead to short covering.</li>
</ul>



Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) have executed a binding Combination Deed to implement an A$14bn merger that simplifies the company structure by eliminating crossholdings.
The merger ratio is a good one for Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) shareholders and the benefits to both sets of shareholders should see the merger approved.
There will be large passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) from global and local index trackers and that could lead to short covering.


Soul Patts & Brickworks: Index Impact of A$14bn Merger

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.</li>
<li>
Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. </li>
<li>
Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.</li>
</ul>



Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.

Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. 

Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.


Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion

Bain Capital is looking to raise A$685m, valuing Virgin Straya at A$2.3bn. Float is close to 30%. ASX300 inclusion in Sep is likely while global...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

There are 12 changes across the ASX family. Flows are big in some stocks and short interest has spiked in a few stocks. Adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Global Macro Outlook (June): From Rally to Reversal? Macro Trends Shift as June Unfolds

Major indices continued their rally in May, but caution is advised due to seasonal patterns. Implied volatility has decreased but remains high in...

John Ley

Soul Patts & Brickworks: Index Impact of A$14bn Merger

SOL and BKW have announced an A$14bn merger. There is large short interest in both stocks. There will be significant passive buying in SOL...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in June 2025

Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

Gaudenz Schneider

Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion

Bain Capital is looking to raise A$685m, valuing Virgin Straya at A$2.3bn. Float is close to 30%. ASX300 inclusion in Sep is likely while global...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

There are 12 changes across the ASX family. Flows are big in some stocks and short interest has spiked in a few stocks. Adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Global Macro Outlook (June): From Rally to Reversal? Macro Trends Shift as June Unfolds

​Major indices continued their rally in May, but caution is advised due to seasonal patterns. Implied volatility has decreased but remains high in...

John Ley

Soul Patts & Brickworks: Index Impact of A$14bn Merger

SOL and BKW have announced an A$14bn merger. There is large short interest in both stocks. There will be significant passive buying in SOL...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in June 2025

​Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

Major indices continued their rally in May, but caution is advised due to seasonal patterns. Implied volatility has decreased but remains high in...

Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.