Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.</li>
</ul>


With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.</li>
<li>SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.</li>
<li>Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY and its largest business, value-added services, increased by 24% YoY.
SAIC president, Mr. Jia, removed 63 mid-level managers in the passenger car department.
Mengniu raised a profit warning that net profit will plunge by 95% - 99% in 2024.


China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India</a> was added to MSCI Global Standard Index. The changes will take effect at the close of February 28, with an effective date of March 3, 2025</li>
<li>Despite being India's second-largest passenger vehicle brand with over 13% market share, Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL) faces stiff competition and sluggish industry growth.</li>
<li>In 2025, HMIL has potential to drive sales and market share gains by capitalising on the high-growth EV and CNG segments with model launches; exports recovery too will be critical.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Motor India was added to MSCI Global Standard Index. The changes will take effect at the close of February 28, with an effective date of March 3, 2025
Despite being India's second-largest passenger vehicle brand with over 13% market share, Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL) faces stiff competition and sluggish industry growth.
In 2025, HMIL has potential to drive sales and market share gains by capitalising on the high-growth EV and CNG segments with model launches; exports recovery too will be critical.


Hyundai Motor India: MSCI Index Inclusion. Is It Enough to Fast-Track HMIL?

Event-Driven

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With just over a week left to review cutoff, there could be three changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK)</a> ETFs in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22740:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cambricon-technologies-corp-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31068:1" rel="noopener">Cambricon Technologies</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saic-motor-corp-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20833:1" rel="noopener">SAIC Motor</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29504:1" rel="noopener">CGN Power</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luzhou-laojiao-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4536:1" rel="noopener">Luzhou Laojiao</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> is expected to be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> in March, so there should be inflows for the A-shares and H-shares.</li>
</ul>


With just over a week left to review cutoff, there could be three changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP China A50 (HKD) (2822 HK) ETFs in March.

Guotai Junan Securities, Cambricon Technologies and SAIC Motor could replace CGN Power, Luzhou Laojiao and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group.

Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) is expected to be added to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March, so there should be inflows for the A-shares and H-shares.


China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

<ul>
<li>NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023.</li>
<li>The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company.</li>
<li>Smart Share Global plans to go private, as the company has no exclusive advantage.</li>
</ul>


NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023.
The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company.
Smart Share Global plans to go private, as the company has no exclusive advantage.


China Consumption Weekly (13 Jan 2025): NEV 2024, Tencent in Blacklist, Energy Monster Going Private

China

SAIC Motor Corporation Ltd., through joint ventures, manufactures and markets automobiles and related parts and accessories.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

SAIC Motor (600104 CH)

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

There could be 3 changes in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

China Retail Weekly (24 Feb 2025): BILI, SAIC, NIO, Mengniu, JD, IQiyi

In 4Q24, Bilibili’s total revenue increased by 22% YoY. SAIC removed 63 managers in the passenger car department. Mengtniu raised a profit warning.

Ming Lu

Hyundai Motor India: MSCI Index Inclusion. Is It Enough to Fast-Track HMIL?

Index inclusion could attract wider investor interest. HMIL’s 2025 EV and CNG new/facelift model launches target high-growth niches to drive sales...

Devi Subhakesan

China A50 ETFs Rebalance Preview: Three Changes in March

There could be 3 changes for the China A50 ETFs in March with passive impact ranging from 0.15-1x ADV. The adds have outperformed the deletes....

Brian Freitas

China Consumption Weekly (13 Jan 2025): NEV 2024, Tencent in Blacklist, Energy Monster Going Private

NEV retail deliveries grew by 41% in 2024, higher than 36% in 2023. US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a Chinese Military Company....

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)