IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/samsonite-is-said-to-consider-options-amid-takeover-interest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> is drawing takeover interest from several PE firms which aim to relist Samsonite in the US to draw a higher valuation. </li>
<li>A standard takeover premium (around 30%) should be sufficient due to the shareholder register. There is no single large shareholder(s) to pose an issue to an offer. </li>
<li>The probability of an offer is medium, with an offer price likely around HK$30.00. Irrespective of a binding offer, the upside remains as Samsonite trades at an undemanding valuation. </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that Samsonite (1910 HK) is drawing takeover interest from several PE firms which aim to relist Samsonite in the US to draw a higher valuation. 
A standard takeover premium (around 30%) should be sufficient due to the shareholder register. There is no single large shareholder(s) to pose an issue to an offer. 
The probability of an offer is medium, with an offer price likely around HK$30.00. Irrespective of a binding offer, the upside remains as Samsonite trades at an undemanding valuation. 


Samsonite (1910 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At 82 index constituents currently, we expect the index committee to progress towards reaching 100 constituents. We are (highly) unlikely to reach the target this calendar year though.</li>
<li>We highlight nine stocks that have a decent chance at being added to the index over the next couple of rebalances. All companies are profitable and meet inclusion requirements.</li>
<li>The market consultation on proposed changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to more inclusions from the Information Technology sector from the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>


At 82 index constituents currently, we expect the index committee to progress towards reaching 100 constituents. We are (highly) unlikely to reach the target this calendar year though.
We highlight nine stocks that have a decent chance at being added to the index over the next couple of rebalances. All companies are profitable and meet inclusion requirements.
The market consultation on proposed changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to more inclusions from the Information Technology sector from the June rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Our NDR with Samsonite’s management indicated a rather stable 4Q and hence a maintained full-year 2023 guidance with high-teen sales increase year-overfour-year (Yo4Y), 59%+ gross margins and 19%+ adjusted EBITDA margins.</li><li>Specifically, for the December-quarter, management preliminarily commented that 1) cFX sales growth Yo4Y would be somewhere between mid-to-high teen, excluding Russia &amp; Speck; 2) adj. EBITDA margin will be slightly below 3Q23, but will remain close to 19%, 3) A&amp;P ratio will hover between 6.5-7.0% of sales, and 4) adverse F/X impact will become more apparent, especially that from Turkey and Argentina.</li><li>We believe these should match investors’ expectation and help Samsonite circumvent any de-rating risks entering the March reporting season. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our NDR with Samsonite’s management indicated a rather stable 4Q and hence a maintained full-year 2023 guidance with high-teen sales increase year-overfour-year (Yo4Y), 59%+ gross margins and 19%+ adjusted EBITDA margins.Specifically, for the December-quarter, management preliminarily commented that 1) cFX sales growth Yo4Y would be somewhere between mid-to-high teen, excluding Russia &amp; Speck; 2) adj. EBITDA margin will be slightly below 3Q23, but will remain close to 19%, 3) A&amp;P ratio will hover between 6.5-7.0% of sales, and 4) adverse F/X impact will become more apparent, especially that from Turkey and Argentina.We believe these should match investors’ expectation and help Samsonite circumvent any de-rating risks entering the March reporting season. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite (1910 HK) – 4Q Preview: Sales/Adj. EBITDA +18%/+36%

<ul><li>Consistent to our preview, Samsonite 3Q revenue/adjusted net profit kicked in at US$958mn/126mn, up +21.2%/93.9% YoY.</li><li>The results were mainly driven by 29.3% TUMI brand sales, with China strength, on a regional basis, continued to outpace the average.</li><li>Gross margin of 59.6% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.3% both reached record highs. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consistent to our preview, Samsonite 3Q revenue/adjusted net profit kicked in at US$958mn/126mn, up +21.2%/93.9% YoY.The results were mainly driven by 29.3% TUMI brand sales, with China strength, on a regional basis, continued to outpace the average.Gross margin of 59.6% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.3% both reached record highs. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsonite (1910 HK) – 3Q Rev/NP +21%/94%; Low-Teen Growth for 2024E

<ul>
<li>The move from 80 index constituents to 100 could take most of next year (and possibly even the year after that) to manage turnover and add profitable companies.</li>
<li>Foreign companies will be eligible for inclusion in the index from the December rebalance. That makes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> a high probability inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>We highlight 8 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.6-4.3 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.</li>
</ul>


The move from 80 index constituents to 100 could take most of next year (and possibly even the year after that) to manage turnover and add profitable companies.
Foreign companies will be eligible for inclusion in the index from the December rebalance. That makes Samsonite (1910 HK) a high probability inclusion candidate.
We highlight 8 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.6-4.3 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.


Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: Foreign Companies Eligible from December

United States

Samsonite International SA designs, manufactures, and distributes luggage. The Company's products include suitcases, garment bags, casual bags, business cases, clothing, shoes, and accessories. Samsonite also licenses their trademarks for use on products such as travel accessories, leather goods, handbags, clothing, and furniture.

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Samsonite (1910 HK)