Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.</li>
<li>Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.</li>
<li>Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.</li>
</ul>


Daily buyback flow data for Samsung (ord + pref) since last Nov compiled — Excel file attached below.
Started with ~1M/day (for ord), ramped up at 20–30%, then tapered post-60% — same playbook in both legs, with the second showing even more methodical, steady pacing.
Price action tracked buyback flow closely — especially in leg 2, where the mid-heavy-light volume pattern showed strong consistency.


Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1st July the Korean media was “pre-announcing” 2Q25 operating profit to be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. </li>
<li>Samsung official announcement is worse: operating profit KRW 4.6tn, down -56% YoY and -31% QoQ. This suggests a lower margins mix (less HBM, higher Foundry losses) and more Opex. </li>
<li>Last week, Consensus was expecting 2Q OP KRW 6.7tn, now down to 6.1tn. The reported 4.6tn is a nasty miss that implies that Consensus is way too high for 2H25. </li>
</ul>


1st July the Korean media was “pre-announcing” 2Q25 operating profit to be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. 
Samsung official announcement is worse: operating profit KRW 4.6tn, down -56% YoY and -31% QoQ. This suggests a lower margins mix (less HBM, higher Foundry losses) and more Opex. 
Last week, Consensus was expecting 2Q OP KRW 6.7tn, now down to 6.1tn. The reported 4.6tn is a nasty miss that implies that Consensus is way too high for 2H25. 


Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a> have discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan announced on July 8th. Read the details in their insights.</li>
<li><strong>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-outlook-as-foundry-spin-off-gains-momentum" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest insight maintained our BUY recommendation:</a> the stock rallied during the following 2 weeks, reaching 64,700, then was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-markets-weekly-tactical-outlook-july-7-to-july-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">marked as "very overbought" in our latest Global Tactical Weekly view</a>.</strong></li>
<li>The stock started to pull back last Friday, after reaching extremely overbought levels (64700). This insight presents a tactical view for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics</a> direction, for the next 2-3 weeks. </li>
</ul>



Douglas Kim and Sanghyun Park have discussed Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan announced on July 8th. Read the details in their insights.
Our latest insight maintained our BUY recommendation: the stock rallied during the following 2 weeks, reaching 64,700, then was marked as "very overbought" in our latest Global Tactical Weekly view.
The stock started to pull back last Friday, after reaching extremely overbought levels (64700). This insight presents a tactical view for Samsung Electronics direction, for the next 2-3 weeks. 


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled. </li>
<li>Samsung Electronics reported  consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively. </li>
<li>The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled. 
Samsung Electronics reported  consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively. 
The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV. 


Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.</li>
<li>If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.</li>
<li>Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.</li>
</ul>


If stock comp stays all in commons like last time, cancellation hits ~1.40% of SO in commons, 1.72% in prefs — setting up preferreds for relative outperformance.
If they cancel the full pool, Samsung Life + Fire’s stake hits 10.14%, forcing a ₩500B block — nearly 2x the ₩280B print back in Feb.
Again, odds are the overage hits the tape again — watch for a potential block print before the third leg wraps, like what played out in Feb.


Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

This post walks through Samsung’s daily buyback flows (compiled in the attached Excel), identifying a notable flow/price sync that played out...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...

Nico Rosti

Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

A deep dive into Samsung’s third-leg buyback: stock comp vs. cancellations, preferred share impacts, and potential block trades on the horizon.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung Daily Buyback Flow Compiled (Excel): Notable Flow/Price Sync Pattern Identified

This post walks through Samsung’s daily buyback flows (compiled in the attached Excel), identifying a notable flow/price sync that played out...

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

​Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Outlook After 3.9 Trillion Won Buyback Plan Announcement

​Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won

Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be...

Douglas Kim

Breaking Down the Moving Parts in Samsung’s Third-Leg Buyback Play

A deep dive into Samsung’s third-leg buyback: stock comp vs. cancellations, preferred share impacts, and potential block trades on the horizon.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 2Q25 operating profit is even weaker than the pre-announcements by the Korean media last week: operating profits down -56% YoY and -31%...

Samsung Electronics announced a 3.9 Trillion Won Share Buyback Plan, the stock fell after a 3 week rally (was "very overbought" according to our...