Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Anthropic and Google released frontier models, while OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra after safety tests and the FTC opened a probe into AI-agent safety.</li>
<li>Anthropic's IPO prospectus showed Q2 revenue of USD 11.5bn, OpenAI sought at least USD 30bn at a USD 1.4tn valuation, and Meta launched an enterprise AI platform.</li>
<li>Amazon explored moving USD 8bn of Nvidia chips into a leaseback vehicle, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for USD 8.2bn, and Firmus priced its ASX IPO.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Anthropic and Google released frontier models, while OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra after safety tests and the FTC opened a probe into AI-agent safety.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus showed Q2 revenue of USD 11.5bn, OpenAI sought at least USD 30bn at a USD 1.4tn valuation, and Meta launched an enterprise AI platform.
Amazon explored moving USD 8bn of Nvidia chips into a leaseback vehicle, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for USD 8.2bn, and Firmus priced its ASX IPO.


This Week in AI (Sep 27-Oct 3): OpenAI Drops Astra for Sol; Sonnet 5.5 Nears Opus at 1/2 the Price

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s remaining KRW 70 to 80tn return package looks set at KRW 60tn dividends and KRW 10 to 20tn buybacks, with KRW 40tn a hard dividend floor and potential upside.</li>
<li>Samsung’s KRW 10 to 20tn buyback could skew heavily toward prefs due to Samsung Life’s 10% constraint, implying potentially 6.7% prefs cancellation versus 0.7% common.</li>
<li>Samsung offers two yearend trades: pref discount compression with 6.8% yield versus 5.1% common, and dividend arb with 3.3% yield, potentially higher amid continued memory sector vol.</li>
</ul>


Samsung’s remaining KRW 70 to 80tn return package looks set at KRW 60tn dividends and KRW 10 to 20tn buybacks, with KRW 40tn a hard dividend floor and potential upside.
Samsung’s KRW 10 to 20tn buyback could skew heavily toward prefs due to Samsung Life’s 10% constraint, implying potentially 6.7% prefs cancellation versus 0.7% common.
Samsung offers two yearend trades: pref discount compression with 6.8% yield versus 5.1% common, and dividend arb with 3.3% yield, potentially higher amid continued memory sector vol.


Samsung’s Remaining Return Mix and Two Yearend Trades

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This is a brief update to our recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-tactical-outlook-post-72b-capital-return-plan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">posted last week</a>.</li>
<li>The stock closed last week up, second week up in a row and extremely high profit target reached (short-term): <strong>our models flashed a overbought/sell signal</strong>.</li>
<li>On Monday Samsung Electronics fell -9%. This insight contains the <strong>updated SUPPORT MODEL to determine where to buy again the stock.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


This is a brief update to our recent Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) insight posted last week.
The stock closed last week up, second week up in a row and extremely high profit target reached (short-term): our models flashed a overbought/sell signal.
On Monday Samsung Electronics fell -9%. This insight contains the updated SUPPORT MODEL to determine where to buy again the stock.



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical UPDATE Post-9% Monday Sell-Off

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> gained 7.2% in August MTD, but combined 2x leveraged ETF AUM fell 3.2% to KRW 3.1tn.</li>
<li>Cumulative net outflows reached KRW 534bn MTD, with all leveraged ETFs recording reductions in units outstanding.</li>
<li>Despite Samsung Electronics falling 8.3% since launch, the 2x inverse ETF has lost 56.4%, reducing its AUM to approximately KRW 15bn.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 7.2% in August MTD, but combined 2x leveraged ETF AUM fell 3.2% to KRW 3.1tn.
Cumulative net outflows reached KRW 534bn MTD, with all leveraged ETFs recording reductions in units outstanding.
Despite Samsung Electronics falling 8.3% since launch, the 2x inverse ETF has lost 56.4%, reducing its AUM to approximately KRW 15bn.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF Investors Exit into the August Rally

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

This Week in AI (Sep 27-Oct 3): OpenAI Drops Astra for Sol; Sonnet 5.5 Nears Opus at 1/2 the Price

This week in AI: OpenAI scrapped GPT-6.1 Astra and shipped Sol, Anthropic released Sonnet 5.5 at half Opus's price, and Google launched Gemini 4...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Samsung’s Remaining Return Mix and Two Yearend Trades

This post takes a look at Samsung’s remaining shareholder return mix and the two key yearend trading setups it could potentially create.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical UPDATE Post-9% Monday Sell-Off

Monday sell-off is overdone in our view; our tactical model forecasts long reversal. Pullback duration expected: 1-3 weeks. Core support zones and...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 2x Leveraged ETF Investors Exit into the August Rally

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 7.2% in August MTD and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 10.4%, yet the ETFs recorded net outflows as investors...

Gaudenz Schneider

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