Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.</li><li>I think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mks-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5970" rel="noopener">Mks Instruments (MKSI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultra-clean-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19849" rel="noopener">Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichor-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26449" rel="noopener">Ichor Holdings (ICHR US)</a> are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.</li><li>The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.</li></ul>

Semicap is strong, Subsystems are not. That will change.I think Mks Instruments (MKSI US), Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US), and Ichor Holdings (ICHR US) are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.The factor-driven size difference drives the opportunity, and they should benefit well on a relative basis next year.

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Cash Mountain: Samsung and SK Hynix's combined net cash US$263bn by year-end — exceeding the rest of the Magnificent Seven combined. The suppliers of AI are richer than its builders.</li>
<li>
The Anomaly: Net cash ~14% of market cap for both names — 5x Nvidia's ratio — as stocks price in a demand collapse that long-term supply agreements directly contradict.</li>
<li>
The Catalyst: SK Hynix has formally committed to expanded returns; Samsung says "very soon." At 70–80% FCF payout, the combined programme implies a double-digit effective yield on current market cap.</li>
</ul>



Cash Mountain: Samsung and SK Hynix's combined net cash US$263bn by year-end — exceeding the rest of the Magnificent Seven combined. The suppliers of AI are richer than its builders.

The Anomaly: Net cash ~14% of market cap for both names — 5x Nvidia's ratio — as stocks price in a demand collapse that long-term supply agreements directly contradict.

The Catalyst: SK Hynix has formally committed to expanded returns; Samsung says "very soon." At 70–80% FCF payout, the combined programme implies a double-digit effective yield on current market cap.


Samsung & SK Hynix: The Richest Cheap Stocks in Global Tech, With More Cash Than the Mag 7 Combined

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.</li>
<li>Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.</li>
<li>Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>


The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.
Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.
Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.


Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

CXMT Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cxmt-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44129:1" rel="noopener">CXMT Corporation (688825 CH)</a> concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.</li>
<li>It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. </li>
<li>Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.</li>
</ul>



CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) concluded its IPO price at Rmb8.66, and we estimate this equals 5x PER for FY26 and 3.4x for FY27.
It is inexpensive relative to global peers, as they are trading at an average of 8.1x and 6.1x, respectively. Normally, A-shares trade at a higher multiple than global peers. 
Applying the Hang Seng AH premium on the IPO, there is a 74.5% upside. Aggressively, if GPU companies are used as references, it may even provide a 3x upside.


CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There used to be a 30% single stock capping rule for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a>. Following a hue and cry, that was repealed in 2020.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix</a> making up over 60% of the index weight, it may be time for the index provider and regulators to revisit capping, and at a lower level.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> shows concentration on every metric compared to other regional equity indices. That does not bode well in times of market volatility.</li>
</ul>


There used to be a 30% single stock capping rule for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX). Following a hue and cry, that was repealed in 2020.
With Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix making up over 60% of the index weight, it may be time for the index provider and regulators to revisit capping, and at a lower level.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) shows concentration on every metric compared to other regional equity indices. That does not bode well in times of market volatility.


KOSPI200 Index: Should Capping Be (Re)Introduced?

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Why Subsystems Now

I think MKSI, UCTT, and ICHR are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.

Fabricated Knowledge

Samsung & SK Hynix: The Richest Cheap Stocks in Global Tech, With More Cash Than the Mag 7 Combined

Samsung & SK Hynix hit US$263bn net cash by year-end — 2.6x Nvidia — while trading at trough multiples. Capital return catalyst is weeks away....

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

KOSPI200 Index: Should Capping Be (Re)Introduced?

The KOSPI200 is more concentrated than the KOSDAQ150 and other regional peers. Sidecars and circuit breakers are being triggered more frequently...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Why Subsystems Now

I think MKSI, UCTT, and ICHR are likely good 12+ month longs as NAND spending increases, and they blow out estimates for multiple quarters in a row.

Fabricated Knowledge

Samsung & SK Hynix: The Richest Cheap Stocks in Global Tech, With More Cash Than the Mag 7 Combined

Samsung & SK Hynix hit US$263bn net cash by year-end — 2.6x Nvidia — while trading at trough multiples. Capital return catalyst is weeks away....

Mo Aziz

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

​KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) IPO: Valuation Insight

CXMT Corporation (688825 CH) has announced it will start trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market next Monday (27 Jul 2026).

Osbert Tang, CFA

KOSPI200 Index: Should Capping Be (Re)Introduced?

The KOSPI200 is more concentrated than the KOSDAQ150 and other regional peers. Sidecars and circuit breakers are being triggered more frequently...

Brian Freitas

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...