Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).</li>
<li>There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.</li>
<li>The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.</li>
</ul>


We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).
There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.
The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.


Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

<ul>
<li>We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.</li>
<li>There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.</li>
<li>We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place</li>
</ul>


We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.
There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.
We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place


Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ten days after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a>'s restructuring became effective, Saudi-backed SALIC, entered into an SPA to acquire 35.4% of Olam Agri (OGA).</li>
<li>The proposed US$1.24bn investment implied an equity value of US3.5bn for the bulk agricultural commodity player.</li>
<li>The OFI unit, which focuses on food ingredients (cocoa, coffee, nuts, and spices), is still seeking a listing in London. OGA is expected to go public six months after OFI. </li>
</ul>


Ten days after Olam Group (OLG SP)'s restructuring became effective, Saudi-backed SALIC, entered into an SPA to acquire 35.4% of Olam Agri (OGA).
The proposed US$1.24bn investment implied an equity value of US3.5bn for the bulk agricultural commodity player.
The OFI unit, which focuses on food ingredients (cocoa, coffee, nuts, and spices), is still seeking a listing in London. OGA is expected to go public six months after OFI. 


US/Europe Event-Driven Analyst

John DeMasi

<ul>
<li>Cargill/Continental Grain announced joint acquisition of Sanderson Farms on 9th August 2021 for $203/share cash.</li>
<li>Poultry Market in the USA is not concentrated; deal presents little traditional competition risk.</li>
<li>Recent accusations of price-fixing in poultry sector present political risk, but SAFM is cheap even if deal were to get blocked.</li>
</ul>


Cargill/Continental Grain announced joint acquisition of Sanderson Farms on 9th August 2021 for $203/share cash.
Poultry Market in the USA is not concentrated; deal presents little traditional competition risk.
Recent accusations of price-fixing in poultry sector present political risk, but SAFM is cheap even if deal were to get blocked.


Sanderson Farms (SAFM US) – Pending Takeover Offers Favourable Risk/Reward

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

Rural Fund Management (RFM) has recently filed its 2019 accounts with ASIC. They reveal the real quality of the Rural Funds Group (RFF) assets. RFM farms lost money in 3 out of the last 4 years. RFM makes money by paying disproportionately high rents to RFF. These rents boost valuations and so ensure that RFF unitholders pay ever higher fees to RFM.RFM then disguises the subterfuge by paying dividends based on revaluation, not cash, profits. This has left RFM highly levered and it would probably collapse without support from RFF.  We think unitholders have no idea about the risk of the J&amp;F debt they underwrote.  The sale of the poultry operations illustrates the lack of care and maintenance investment, undermines recurring cashflow and confirms our valuation concerns.

Rural Fund Management (RFM) has recently filed its 2019 accounts with ASIC. They reveal the real quality of the Rural Funds Group (RFF) assets. RFM farms lost money in 3 out of the last 4 years. RFM makes money by paying disproportionately high rents to RFF. These rents boost valuations and so ensure that RFF unitholders pay ever higher fees to RFM.RFM then disguises the subterfuge by paying dividends based on revaluation, not cash, profits. This has left RFM highly levered and it would probably collapse without support from RFF.  We think unitholders have no idea about the risk of the J&amp;F debt they underwrote.  The sale of the poultry operations illustrates the lack of care and maintenance investment, undermines recurring cashflow and confirms our valuation concerns.

Rural Funds (RFF AU): Milking Their Investors

United States

Sanderson Farms, Inc. produces, processes, markets, and distributes frozen chicken products. The Company offers processes, markets, distributes processed and prepared food items. Sanderson Farms sells its chicken to retailers, distributors, and fast food operators in the southeastern, southwestern, and western United States.

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Sanderson Farms (SAFM US)

Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

We remain bearish as long as the 6-8 month downtrends remain intact on the SPX, NDX (QQQ), and RUT (IWM). Bounce potential given SPX, QQQ, and IWM...

Vermilion Research

Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Now that we have seen indiscriminate panic selling, we are now looking for panic buying in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is...

Vermilion Research

Olam Teams Up With Saudi Arabia's SALIC

SALIC was clearly waiting in the wings until the demerger was completed. Trading a couple of spreads below where it traded heading into the...

David Blennerhassett