Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Sandfire Resources Limited / Event-Driven

<p>On 23 September pre-market open, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sandfire-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1259:1" rel="noopener">Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU)</a> requested for a trading halt. A short time later, the company announced the acquisition of the MATSA mining complex from Mubadala and Trafigura for US$1.865bn (A$2.572bn).</p><p>The acquisition is expected to be completed in the March 2022 quarter and is subject to Spanish Foreign Direct Investment Approval and anti-trust merger control approval.</p><p>The acquisition will be funded by an A$120m strategic placement to AustralianSuper, a A$165m institutional placement, a A$963m fully underwritten 1 for 1 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer (ANREO), debt and cash on hand.</p><p>Just over 231m shares will be issued at A$5.40/share, a 13.2% discount to the last close of A$6.22/share, and a 6.2% discount to TERP.</p><p>The increase in market cap as a result of the placement and entitlement offer will result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sandfire-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1259:1" rel="noopener">Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU)</a> becoming a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</p><p>With a number of M&amp;A deals targeting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> constituents, there will be more changes to the index over the next couple of regular rebalances (and in the interim as well).</p>

On 23 September pre-market open, Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU) requested for a trading halt. A short time later, the company announced the acquisition of the MATSA mining complex from Mubadala and Trafigura for US$1.865bn (A$2.572bn).The acquisition is expected to be completed in the March 2022 quarter and is subject to Spanish Foreign Direct Investment Approval and anti-trust merger control approval.The acquisition will be funded by an A$120m strategic placement to AustralianSuper, a A$165m institutional placement, a A$963m fully underwritten 1 for 1 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer (ANREO), debt and cash on hand.Just over 231m shares will be issued at A$5.40/share, a 13.2% discount to the last close of A$6.22/share, and a 6.2% discount to TERP.The increase in market cap as a result of the placement and entitlement offer will result in Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU) becoming a high probability inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the December rebalance.With a number of M&amp;A deals targeting S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) constituents, there will be more changes to the index over the next couple of regular rebalances (and in the interim as well).

Sandfire Resources (SFR AU): Acquisition, ANREO and ASX200 Inclusion

Index Rebalance

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the June index review on 11 June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.</p><p>Today is the review cut-off date but with a 6 month averaging process we do not see one day of trading data making too much of a change in the forecast inclusions and exclusions.</p><p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chalice-gold-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20193:1" rel="noopener">Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> as potential inclusions in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resolute-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1960:1" rel="noopener">Resolute Mining (RSG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a> is a low probability add while the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</p><p>There is a large impact on the forecast adds and deletes but a lot of the stocks have moved significantly in the last couple of months.</p><p>Short interest on the forecast inclusions has been dropping of late while the short interest on the forecast deletions has been increasing steadily</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the June index review on 11 June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.Today is the review cut-off date but with a 6 month averaging process we do not see one day of trading data making too much of a change in the forecast inclusions and exclusions.We see Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU), Chalice Gold Mines (CHN AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) as potential inclusions in the index replacing Resolute Mining (RSG AU), Austal Ltd (ASB AU) and Perenti Global (PRN AU).Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU) is a low probability add while the corresponding deletion is G8 Education (GEM AU).There is a large impact on the forecast adds and deletes but a lot of the stocks have moved significantly in the last couple of months.Short interest on the forecast inclusions has been dropping of late while the short interest on the forecast deletions has been increasing steadily

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Gold Miners Shining

<p>Post market close today, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices has announced the list of changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</p><p>There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions in this review. This is more than what we expected - we had 3 adds and 3 deletes, and another 2 potential adds and 2 potential deletes.</p><p>The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hub24-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12336:1" rel="noopener">Hub24 Ltd (HUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nickel-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30639:1" rel="noopener">Nickel Mines Ltd (NIC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a>. </p><p>The exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sandfire-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1259:1" rel="noopener">Sandfire Resources Nl (SFR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a>.</p><p>Given there are only 5 trading days from now to implementation, there are significant days to trade on quite a lot of the stocks.</p>

Post market close today, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices has announced the list of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions in this review. This is more than what we expected - we had 3 adds and 3 deletes, and another 2 potential adds and 2 potential deletes.The inclusions are Codan Ltd (CDA AU), Champion Iron (CIA AU), Hub24 Ltd (HUB AU), Nickel Mines Ltd (NIC AU), Nuix Limited (NXL AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU). The exclusions are Bravura Solutions (BVS AU), Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU), Sandfire Resources Nl (SFR AU), Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU), Service Stream (SSM AU) and Tassal (TGR AU).Given there are only 5 trading days from now to implementation, there are significant days to trade on quite a lot of the stocks.

ASX200 Index Rebalance: More Change Than Expected

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sandfire-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1259:1" rel="noopener">Sandfire Resources Nl (SFR AU)</a> has <a href="https://www.sandfire.com.au/site/PDF/2385_0/SandfiretoAcquireMODResourcesAnnouncement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reloaded</a> with an implied Scheme consideration of A$0.45 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mod-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5925:1" rel="noopener">Mod Resources (MOD AU)</a>, a 45% premium to the closing price of A$0.31/share on the 24 June.</p>
<p>SFR had previously approached MOD with an A$0.38/share Indicative Offer back in <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190121/pdf/441zltx55vszrw.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">January</a> this year.</p>
<p>MOD shareholders can elect either a cash consideration of A$0.45/share, subject to a cap of A$41.6mn (~25% of the Offer size) OR a scrip consideration of 0.0664 SFR shares for every 1 MOD shares.</p>
<p>The Offer has the unanimous backing of MOD's board who will vote their collective holdings of 7.02% for the Offer.</p>
<p>Metal Tiger, MOD's second largest shareholder and JV partner, will vote its 10.48% stake (&amp; up to 19.9% of shares out after the exercise of 40mn options) in favour of the scheme. The largest shareholder is AustalianSuper (11.78%).</p>
<p>The acquisition provides SFR with access to MOD's Botswana T3 copper prospects while bolting on additional (&amp; supplemental) supply to SFR's declining DeGrussa copper-gold mine in Western Australia.</p>
<p>The Offer is expected to complete late October/early November. The word on the street is that SFR beat out a number of suitors, both domestic and overseas, therefore a competing offer is a possibility. Expect this to trade tight to terms. </p>
<hr>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p><em>Quiddity's new <a href="https://skr.ma/vfAwp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29174" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> </em><em>is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Australian M&amp;A landscape. There are several others in the series - watch for more to come shortly.</em></p>
</div>

Sandfire Resources Nl (SFR AU) has reloaded with an implied Scheme consideration of A$0.45 for Mod Resources (MOD AU), a 45% premium to the closing price of A$0.31/share on the 24 June.
SFR had previously approached MOD with an A$0.38/share Indicative Offer back in January this year.
MOD shareholders can elect either a cash consideration of A$0.45/share, subject to a cap of A$41.6mn (~25% of the Offer size) OR a scrip consideration of 0.0664 SFR shares for every 1 MOD shares.
The Offer has the unanimous backing of MOD's board who will vote their collective holdings of 7.02% for the Offer.
Metal Tiger, MOD's second largest shareholder and JV partner, will vote its 10.48% stake (&amp; up to 19.9% of shares out after the exercise of 40mn options) in favour of the scheme. The largest shareholder is AustalianSuper (11.78%).
The acquisition provides SFR with access to MOD's Botswana T3 copper prospects while bolting on additional (&amp; supplemental) supply to SFR's declining DeGrussa copper-gold mine in Western Australia.
The Offer is expected to complete late October/early November. The word on the street is that SFR beat out a number of suitors, both domestic and overseas, therefore a competing offer is a possibility. Expect this to trade tight to terms. 


Quiddity's new Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 is now published with guidelines to the relevant rules, regulations, documentation, and pointers to the Australian M&amp;A landscape. There are several others in the series - watch for more to come shortly.


MOD Resources Supports Latest Sandfire Offer

Australia

Sandfire Resources Limited is an Australian copper and gold producer. The Company's key asset is the DeGrussa Copper-Gold Mine located in Western Australia. Sandfire also has exploration assets targeting a range of commodities throughout Australia.

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Sandfire Resources Limited (SFR AU)

Sandfire Resources (SFR AU): Acquisition, ANREO and ASX200 Inclusion

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ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Gold Miners Shining

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ASX200 Index Rebalance: More Change Than Expected

There are 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the ASX200 at the March review. There are a few 'surprises' and there is quite a lot of short interest...

Brian Freitas

MOD Resources Supports Latest Sandfire Offer

Sandfire Resources Nl (SFR AU) has reloaded with an implied Scheme consideration of A$0.45 for Mod Resources (MOD AU), a 45% premium to the closing...

David Blennerhassett

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