Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Only US-listed pure-play NAND vehicle with fab-light Flash Ventures JV economics; NBM framework (US$42bn RPO, US$11bn financial guarantees) is a genuine structural break from commodity cyclicality — if it holds.</li>
<li>Q4 FY2026 earnings (13 Aug) is binary — confirm margins and upgrade to BUY, miss and downgrade to SELL.</li>
<li>HOLD, US$1,950 PT (blended 60% forward P/E 35x FY2026E EPS US$65 + 40% EV/EBITDA 27x); HBF optionality (consensus zero value) is the asymmetric upside not in the multiple.</li>
</ul>


Only US-listed pure-play NAND vehicle with fab-light Flash Ventures JV economics; NBM framework (US$42bn RPO, US$11bn financial guarantees) is a genuine structural break from commodity cyclicality — if it holds.
Q4 FY2026 earnings (13 Aug) is binary — confirm margins and upgrade to BUY, miss and downgrade to SELL.
HOLD, US$1,950 PT (blended 60% forward P/E 35x FY2026E EPS US$65 + 40% EV/EBITDA 27x); HBF optionality (consensus zero value) is the asymmetric upside not in the multiple.


SANDISK CORPORATION (SNDK US): Initiate with a NEUTRAL (TP US$1,950)

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Strategic supply certainty is driving record margins and an accelerating earnings trajectory, supported by new AI-focused storage solutions and massive cash flow.</li>
<li>Implied volatility levels are currently elevated across the term structure, making leveraged upside positions more challenging to establish and profit from.</li>
<li>With volatility high and profitability hurdles increasing, the best approach is now a patient long-term accumulation of the underlying security.</li>
</ul>


Strategic supply certainty is driving record margins and an accelerating earnings trajectory, supported by new AI-focused storage solutions and massive cash flow.
Implied volatility levels are currently elevated across the term structure, making leveraged upside positions more challenging to establish and profit from.
With volatility high and profitability hurdles increasing, the best approach is now a patient long-term accumulation of the underlying security.


Unpacking Sandisk’s Q3: Strategic Supply Shifts and Navigating Elevated Options Prices, Volatility

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Three KPIs run the business, Get a fair return on the technology, dampen cyclicality via NBMs with financial guarantees, limiting to mid-to-high-teens bit growth</li>
<li>First three NBM agreements (signed March quarter): $42 billion total lifetime contracted value. <em><strong>Five</strong></em> NBM agreements now signed</li>
<li>SanDisk’s February 2025 Analyst Day call was that NAND would inflect in 2H25 and remain undersupplied through end 2026. Goeckeler is now extending the same conviction level through end 2027.</li>
</ul>


Three KPIs run the business, Get a fair return on the technology, dampen cyclicality via NBMs with financial guarantees, limiting to mid-to-high-teens bit growth
First three NBM agreements (signed March quarter): $42 billion total lifetime contracted value. Five NBM agreements now signed
SanDisk’s February 2025 Analyst Day call was that NAND would inflect in 2H25 and remain undersupplied through end 2026. Goeckeler is now extending the same conviction level through end 2027.


SanDisk @ JPM 54th Annual TMT. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>SanDisk’s fiscal third quarter of 2026 demonstrated significant growth driven largely by evolving business models and increasing demand in key end markets.</li><li>The company executed on strategic multiyear supply agreements with five customers, termed new business models (NBMs), which offer committed financial revenue and supply volume.</li><li>These contracts include a combination of fixed and variable pricing, feature financial guarantees exceeding $11 billion, and cover up to five years of supply agreements.</li></ul>

SanDisk’s fiscal third quarter of 2026 demonstrated significant growth driven largely by evolving business models and increasing demand in key end markets.The company executed on strategic multiyear supply agreements with five customers, termed new business models (NBMs), which offer committed financial revenue and supply volume.These contracts include a combination of fixed and variable pricing, feature financial guarantees exceeding $11 billion, and cover up to five years of supply agreements.

SanDisk: From Cyclical Memory Player To Contract-Backed Growth Machine—What’s Changing?

<ul>
<li>SanDisk reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $5.95 billion, up 97% sequentially and 251% year-over-year, crushing guidance of $4.4 to $4.8 billion.</li>
<li>GAAP net income was $3.615 billion, or $23.03 diluted EPS. Non-GAAP EPS was $23.41, against guidance of $12 to $14. Non-GAAP gross margin was 78.4%, versus guided 65% to 67%.</li>
<li>"This is what makes this franchise such a spectacular cash generator: capex as a percent of revenue is continuing to go down substantially". CEO David Goeckeler</li>
</ul>


SanDisk reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $5.95 billion, up 97% sequentially and 251% year-over-year, crushing guidance of $4.4 to $4.8 billion.
GAAP net income was $3.615 billion, or $23.03 diluted EPS. Non-GAAP EPS was $23.41, against guidance of $12 to $14. Non-GAAP gross margin was 78.4%, versus guided 65% to 67%.
"This is what makes this franchise such a spectacular cash generator: capex as a percent of revenue is continuing to go down substantially". CEO David Goeckeler


SanDisk Q3 FY2026. The Spectacular Cash Generator Fires Up

United States

SanDisk Corporation designs, develops, and manufactures data storage solutions in a variety of form factors using our flash memory, proprietary controller and firmware technologies. The Company's solutions include removable cards, embedded products, universal serial bus, or USB, drives, digital media players, wafers and components.

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Sandisk Corp (SNDK US)

SANDISK CORPORATION (SNDK US): Initiate with a NEUTRAL (TP US$1,950)

US-listed NAND vehicle with unique economics faces pivotal Q4 earnings, HOLD with potential upside from HBF optionality.

Mo Aziz

Unpacking Sandisk’s Q3: Strategic Supply Shifts and Navigating Elevated Options Prices, Volatility

Strategic supply certainty boosts margins and earnings, but high volatility makes leveraged positions challenging; long-term accumulation is advised.

Jay Cameron

SanDisk @ JPM 54th Annual TMT. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

SanDisk’s February 2025 Analyst Day call was that NAND would inflect in 2H25 and remain undersupplied through end 2026. Goeckeler is now extending...

William Keating

SanDisk: From Cyclical Memory Player To Contract-Backed Growth Machine—What’s Changing?

SanDisk’s fiscal third quarter of 2026 demonstrated significant growth driven largely by evolving business models and increasing demand in key end...

Baptista Research

SanDisk Q3 FY2026. The Spectacular Cash Generator Fires Up

"This is what makes this franchise such a spectacular cash generator: capex as a percent of revenue is continuing to go down substantially". CEO...

William Keating

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SANDISK CORPORATION (SNDK US): Initiate with a NEUTRAL (TP US$1,950)

​US-listed NAND vehicle with unique economics faces pivotal Q4 earnings, HOLD with potential upside from HBF optionality.

Mo Aziz

Unpacking Sandisk’s Q3: Strategic Supply Shifts and Navigating Elevated Options Prices, Volatility

​Strategic supply certainty boosts margins and earnings, but high volatility makes leveraged positions challenging; long-term accumulation is advised.

Jay Cameron

SanDisk @ JPM 54th Annual TMT. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

SanDisk’s February 2025 Analyst Day call was that NAND would inflect in 2H25 and remain undersupplied through end 2026. Goeckeler is now extending...

William Keating

SanDisk: From Cyclical Memory Player To Contract-Backed Growth Machine—What’s Changing?

SanDisk’s fiscal third quarter of 2026 demonstrated significant growth driven largely by evolving business models and increasing demand in key end...

Baptista Research

SanDisk Q3 FY2026. The Spectacular Cash Generator Fires Up

"This is what makes this franchise such a spectacular cash generator: capex as a percent of revenue is continuing to go down substantially". CEO...

William Keating

US-listed NAND vehicle with unique economics faces pivotal Q4 earnings, HOLD with potential upside from HBF optionality.

Strategic supply certainty boosts margins and earnings, but high volatility makes leveraged positions challenging; long-term accumulation is advised.