HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 is the worst year for our "Buy the Worst" strategy as it returned -34.5% YTD, underperforming the HSI by 20.7pp. The two property names are the key drags.</li>
<li>Despite a poor 2023, the strategy has still outperformed the HSI by 17.9pp for 2018-2023. It remains significantly better than buying the winners in the current year.</li>
<li>For 2024, our strategy is to switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


2023 is the worst year for our "Buy the Worst" strategy as it returned -34.5% YTD, underperforming the HSI by 20.7pp. The two property names are the key drags.
Despite a poor 2023, the strategy has still outperformed the HSI by 17.9pp for 2018-2023. It remains significantly better than buying the winners in the current year.
For 2024, our strategy is to switch to Li Ning (2331 HK), Country Garden Services (6098 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK). 


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>M3 extends its Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. M3 can match Dai-Ichi Life proposal, financially, if backed. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> can probably bump further. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-electronics-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4877:1" rel="noopener">Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)</a>'s CEO and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> reckon they can trump SASAC's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>First City of London Investment Management, then Palliser Capital and now Whitebox, urge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-c-t-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:481:1" rel="noopener">Samsung C&amp;T (028260 KS)</a> to improve its cash spending, improve governance and communications and simplify its corporate structure</li>
</ul>


M3 extends its Tender Offer for Benefit One (2412 JP). M3 can match Dai-Ichi Life proposal, financially, if backed. And Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) can probably bump further. 

Haier Electronics Group Co (1169 HK)'s CEO and ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) reckon they can trump SASAC's Offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK).
First City of London Investment Management, then Palliser Capital and now Whitebox, urge Samsung C&amp;T (028260 KS) to improve its cash spending, improve governance and communications and simplify its corporate structure


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> announced it will buy  ~1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> mean reverts after a roller coaster out/under-performance. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Las Vegas Sands and Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) announced it will buy  ~1% of Sands China (1928 HK). Melco International Development (200 HK) mean reverts after a roller coaster out/under-performance. 
Preceding my comments on Las Vegas Sands and Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One

<ul>
<li>The Toyota Group of companies are proposing to reduce their holdings in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso (6902 JP)</a> by selling about 10% by year-end, in a share sale worth ~$4.7bn.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


The Toyota Group of companies are proposing to reduce their holdings in Denso (6902 JP) by selling about 10% by year-end, in a share sale worth ~$4.7bn.
Preceding my comments on Toyota Industries (6201 JP) / Toyota Motor (7203 JP) - and Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Toyota Group To Sell 10% of Denso; Adelson Selling LVS

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MSCI China Funds are starting to engage with New Oriental Education &amp; Technology after a big exodus in 2021 following China’s Tech Crackdown.</li>
<li>Since the lows of 2022, New Oriental Education has been one of the key beneficiaries of active fund rotation.</li>
<li>Previous holders such as HSBC, Mirae and BlackRock have bought back in after closing out in 2021, but there is still a long way to go to reach previous highs.</li>
</ul>


MSCI China Funds are starting to engage with New Oriental Education &amp; Technology after a big exodus in 2021 following China’s Tech Crackdown.
Since the lows of 2022, New Oriental Education has been one of the key beneficiaries of active fund rotation.
Previous holders such as HSBC, Mirae and BlackRock have bought back in after closing out in 2021, but there is still a long way to go to reach previous highs.


New Oriental Education & Technology: Back From the Dead

Hong Kong

Sands China develops, owns, and operates multi-use integrated resorts and casinos in Macao. The company's portfolio includes The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao, and Sands Macao, offering gaming, hotels, dining, retail, convention facilities, and entertainment. Sands China is headquartered in Macao and was founded in 2009.

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Sands China (1928 HK)

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One

With LVS having a US$1.75bn (net of the buyback) overhang; and Sands benefitting from its major shareholder buying (say around 7 days of ADV),...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Toyota Group To Sell 10% of Denso; Adelson Selling LVS

This has been a great stub trade since late March. Look to unwind here. Both TICO and TMC intend to pocket a chunk of change in Denso. The net...

David Blennerhassett

New Oriental Education & Technology: Back From the Dead

MSCI China Funds are starting to engage with New Oriental Education & Technology after a big exodus in 2021 following China’s Tech Crackdown.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: A Tragic 2023 and What About 2024?

​2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, CPMC, Samsung C&T, Sands China, Shinko Electric, Hankook & Co

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One

With LVS having a US$1.75bn (net of the buyback) overhang; and Sands benefitting from its major shareholder buying (say around 7 days of ADV),...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Toyota Group To Sell 10% of Denso; Adelson Selling LVS

This has been a great stub trade since late March. Look to unwind here. Both TICO and TMC intend to pocket a chunk of change in Denso. The net...

David Blennerhassett

New Oriental Education & Technology: Back From the Dead

MSCI China Funds are starting to engage with New Oriental Education & Technology after a big exodus in 2021 following China’s Tech Crackdown.

Steven Holden

2023 was bad for the "Buy the Worst" strategy, but it still outperformed the HSI for 2018-2023. In 2024, we will switch to Li Ning, Country Garden...