HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our "Buy the Worst" strategy outperformed HSI by a massive 26.1pp YTD. Over the last five years and seven, this strategy returned 39.7% and 25.8% respectively, beating the market significantly. </li>
<li>For 2022, the strategy will switch into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a>, based on YTD performance.</li>
<li>While these names are facing sustained headwinds, track record of our strategy suggested that they are more likely to outperform in 2022 than underperform. We think there is turnaround potential.</li>
</ul>


Our "Buy the Worst" strategy outperformed HSI by a massive 26.1pp YTD. Over the last five years and seven, this strategy returned 39.7% and 25.8% respectively, beating the market significantly. 
For 2022, the strategy will switch into Haidilao (6862 HK), Alibaba Health (241 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Sands China (1928 HK) and Xiaomi (1810 HK), based on YTD performance.
While these names are facing sustained headwinds, track record of our strategy suggested that they are more likely to outperform in 2022 than underperform. We think there is turnaround potential.


“Buy the Worst” Strategy into Year 3: What's on for 2022 to Beat the HSI?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone Group (BX US)</a> has returned for a third time with a A$12.50 cash per share offer, a marginal 1.2% bump to its last offer of A$12.35 on 10 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> is at the start of a difficult reform agenda it needs to fulfil to maintain its gaming licenses. Nevertheless, Blackstone’s ongoing interest suggest inherent value.</li>
<li>Blackstone’s bid retains leeway for a bump and may draw out previous suitors. At the last close of A$11.54, the shares trade at an 8.3% gross spread to the offer.</li>
</ul>



Blackstone Group (BX US) has returned for a third time with a A$12.50 cash per share offer, a marginal 1.2% bump to its last offer of A$12.35 on 10 May.

Crown Resorts (CWN AU) is at the start of a difficult reform agenda it needs to fulfil to maintain its gaming licenses. Nevertheless, Blackstone’s ongoing interest suggest inherent value.
Blackstone’s bid retains leeway for a bump and may draw out previous suitors. At the last close of A$11.54, the shares trade at an 8.3% gross spread to the offer.


Blackstone Third-Time Lucky with Crown Resorts Bid?

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There are many factors implicit in going long on Sands China Ltd. Las Vegas recovery cycle is in positive swing, Macau will mimmic that pattern. As a pure play in the space, we see SCL as an outstanding value buy at its current price.</li>
<li>Regulatory threats of government intrusion could be exaggerated at a time when few really know what final public hearings on key issues will be the outcome.</li>
<li>Stock is very attractive here at low end of its 52 week trading range.</li>
</ul>


There are many factors implicit in going long on Sands China Ltd. Las Vegas recovery cycle is in positive swing, Macau will mimmic that pattern. As a pure play in the space, we see SCL as an outstanding value buy at its current price.
Regulatory threats of government intrusion could be exaggerated at a time when few really know what final public hearings on key issues will be the outcome.
Stock is very attractive here at low end of its 52 week trading range.


Sands China Ltd: We're Building a Bull Case on the Rapid Rise of China Vaccination Rates

Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

Macau's top gaming stocks <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/macau-casinos-see-188-billion-wipeout-as-china-tightens-control" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lost</a> a record USD18 billion in combined market value on 15 September 2021 after the Macau administration <a href="https://www.ggrasia.com/public-consultation-re-gaming-law-review-from-sept-15/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a><a href="https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-may-end-casino-sub-concessions-directly-monitor-ops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a> a 45 day public consultation period to discuss revisions to Gaming Laws, which comes as the June 2022 expiration deadline for existing gaming concessions loomed. Amongst others, the abolishment of the sub-concession framework (which could reduce current 6 operators to 3 operators), restriction on distribution of dividend, and Macau government's direct supervision of casino operations drew the most consternation from investors and analysts. The sweeping revisions compound the woes of Macau's casino operators, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd-088dbd12-a0e9-4516-a68f-6a3cf8aa065d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28515:1" rel="noopener">Sands China Ltd (SCHYY US)</a>, which had already been badly affected by pandemic driven travel restrictions, and which obliterated their gaming revenues.While there were some improvements due to easing of travel restrictions for Mainland travelers in September 2020, gross gaming revenues (GGR) remain a shadow of its past.  The daily average of visitors to Macau during October's Golden Week was <a href="https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-oct-golden-week-daily-average-visits-dip-93pct-y-o-y/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">down 93.7%</a> on daily average in 2020. The decline coincided with new COVID-19 cases confirmed in Macau around the same period. Amongst its peers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>  is the most highly levered and had already dodged a bullet by securing covenant waivers in April 2020 at the peak of the pandemic.In this Insight, we discuss the impact of the proposed revisions and subdued GGR recovery on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>'s cash reserves, debt servicing ability, and whether there may be potential breaches of its financial covenants.

Macau's top gaming stocks lost a record USD18 billion in combined market value on 15 September 2021 after the Macau administration announced a 45 day public consultation period to discuss revisions to Gaming Laws, which comes as the June 2022 expiration deadline for existing gaming concessions loomed. Amongst others, the abolishment of the sub-concession framework (which could reduce current 6 operators to 3 operators), restriction on distribution of dividend, and Macau government's direct supervision of casino operations drew the most consternation from investors and analysts. The sweeping revisions compound the woes of Macau's casino operators, such as Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)  and Sands China Ltd (SCHYY US), which had already been badly affected by pandemic driven travel restrictions, and which obliterated their gaming revenues.While there were some improvements due to easing of travel restrictions for Mainland travelers in September 2020, gross gaming revenues (GGR) remain a shadow of its past.  The daily average of visitors to Macau during October's Golden Week was down 93.7% on daily average in 2020. The decline coincided with new COVID-19 cases confirmed in Macau around the same period. Amongst its peers, Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)  is the most highly levered and had already dodged a bullet by securing covenant waivers in April 2020 at the peak of the pandemic.In this Insight, we discuss the impact of the proposed revisions and subdued GGR recovery on Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)'s cash reserves, debt servicing ability, and whether there may be potential breaches of its financial covenants.

Wynn Macau (1128 HK) - Gaming Law Revisions and Impact on Financial Covenants

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. (032350 KS)

The sharp government crackdown on the Macau casinos is a boon on the Korean casinos. Because the government crackdown on the Macau casinos could last longer (next 6-12 months, for example), we believe that this is likely to lead to benefit the major casino operators of other major Asian countries such as in Korea, including companies such as Paradise and Lotte Tour Development. At this point, the great unknown regarding the Macau casino industry is how aggressively the Chinese government will try to impose on how the major casinos in Macau operate. We highlighted four major factors that the CCP could aggressively intrude on them including dividends, BOD representation, ownership, and expansion of non-casino businesses. Although there have been some increased regulatory scrutiny by the CCP on the Macau casinos in the past, this new crackdown in the past two weeks is probably one of the most restrictive and problematic ever. What is different this time around is timing. Unlike the previous crackdowns, this crackdown has involved not just the gambling sector but also other major sectors including education, technology, and entertainment.<ul>
<li>At its core, it deals with the fundamental issue of capitalism vs. communism, the details of which is beyond this article.</li>
<li>For the investor that actively trade the Asian casinos, it is very difficult to "buy the dip" since if indeed the CCP becomes major shareholders of these Macau casinos (including BOD representation), these companies would not be acting in the best interests of their shareholders and would not be maximizing their capital efficiency.</li>
<li>Rather, they would take directives from the CCP and minority shareholders would be screwed. </li>
</ul>

The sharp government crackdown on the Macau casinos is a boon on the Korean casinos. Because the government crackdown on the Macau casinos could last longer (next 6-12 months, for example), we believe that this is likely to lead to benefit the major casino operators of other major Asian countries such as in Korea, including companies such as Paradise and Lotte Tour Development. At this point, the great unknown regarding the Macau casino industry is how aggressively the Chinese government will try to impose on how the major casinos in Macau operate. We highlighted four major factors that the CCP could aggressively intrude on them including dividends, BOD representation, ownership, and expansion of non-casino businesses. Although there have been some increased regulatory scrutiny by the CCP on the Macau casinos in the past, this new crackdown in the past two weeks is probably one of the most restrictive and problematic ever. What is different this time around is timing. Unlike the previous crackdowns, this crackdown has involved not just the gambling sector but also other major sectors including education, technology, and entertainment.
At its core, it deals with the fundamental issue of capitalism vs. communism, the details of which is beyond this article.
For the investor that actively trade the Asian casinos, it is very difficult to "buy the dip" since if indeed the CCP becomes major shareholders of these Macau casinos (including BOD representation), these companies would not be acting in the best interests of their shareholders and would not be maximizing their capital efficiency.
Rather, they would take directives from the CCP and minority shareholders would be screwed. 


A Crackdown on the Macau Casinos Is a Boon on the Korean Casinos

Hong Kong

Sands China develops, owns, and operates multi-use integrated resorts and casinos in Macao. The company's portfolio includes The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao, and Sands Macao, offering gaming, hotels, dining, retail, convention facilities, and entertainment. Sands China is headquartered in Macao and was founded in 2009.

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Sands China (1928 HK)

“Buy the Worst” Strategy into Year 3: What's on for 2022 to Beat the HSI?

Our "Buy the Worst" strategy outperformed HSI by a massive 26.1pp YTD. For 2022, new names are Haidilao, Ali Health, Alibaba, Sands China and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Blackstone Third-Time Lucky with Crown Resorts Bid?

Blackstone’s new A$12.50 cash per share bid retains leeway for a bump and may draw out previous suitors. At the last close of A$11.54 per share,...

Arun George

Sands China Ltd: We're Building a Bull Case on the Rapid Rise of China Vaccination Rates

Vaccination rates are soaring in China reaching over 80%. There is a direct link between that, and falling travel restrictions which in turn will...

Howard J Klein

Wynn Macau (1128 HK) - Gaming Law Revisions and Impact on Financial Covenants

Macau's gaming stocks lost USD18 billion in market value after the Macau administration announced proposed revisions to Gaming Laws. We discuss the...

Jason Yap, CFA

A Crackdown on the Macau Casinos Is a Boon on the Korean Casinos

The sharp government crackdown on the Macau casinos is a boon on the Korean casinos. Because the government crackdown on the Macau casinos could...

Douglas Kim

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