Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 30th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,095m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nichirei, SoftBank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 30th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,095m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nichirei, SoftBank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 30th): Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Shin Etsu Chemical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.0 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a>’s shares have declined 6.3% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,476 per share (27 January).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Shin Etsu's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.0 billion secondary offering, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)’s shares have declined 6.3% to the undisturbed price of JPY5,476 per share (27 January).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Shin Etsu's share decline is lower than the median of recent large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP): The Current Playbook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance is now complete. Nikkei has also confirmed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s capping at the rebalance. </li>
<li>We highlight 3 potential changes to the index and some close names that could be added/deleted at this rebalance or over the next couple of rebalances.</li>
<li>If the changes are as forecast, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.35% leading to a round-trip trade of JPY 1tn (US$6.45bn).</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance is now complete. Nikkei has also confirmed Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s capping at the rebalance. 
We highlight 3 potential changes to the index and some close names that could be added/deleted at this rebalance or over the next couple of rebalances.
If the changes are as forecast, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.35% leading to a round-trip trade of JPY 1tn (US$6.45bn).


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2026): Cutoff Done; Capping Confirmed; Constituent Changes?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kandenko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3726:1" rel="noopener">Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of 22.8 million shares (26.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.8 billion (US$1.0 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>The timing is opportunistic as the shares are up 159% in the last 12 months. Notably, the placement was announced post-close after the full-year results were <a href="https://www.kandenko.co.jp/en/docs/3Notice%20of%20Revision%20to%20Financial%20Results%20and%20Dividend%20Forecasts.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upgraded intraday</a>.</li>
<li>The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to JPY30 billion) will partly mitigate the impact.</li>
</ul>



Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP) has announced a secondary offering of 22.8 million shares (26.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.8 billion (US$1.0 billion including overallotment).
The timing is opportunistic as the shares are up 159% in the last 12 months. Notably, the placement was announced post-close after the full-year results were upgraded intraday.
The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is below average compared to recent large placements. A ToSTNeT-3 repurchase (up to JPY30 billion) will partly mitigate the impact.


Kandenko (1942 JP): A US$1.0 Billion Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 23rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD22,549m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Nichirei, TDK, Advantest, Sony, Sumitomo Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Lasertec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 23rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD22,549m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, Fast Retailing, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Nichirei, TDK, Advantest, Sony, Sumitomo Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Lasertec.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 23rd): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, Fast Retailing

Japan

Sanrio Company, Ltd. manufactures and sells character goods including gift merchandise, greeting cards, and stationery products.  The Company also produces books, magazines, and movies, and though its subsidiary, operates restaurants and amusement parks.

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Sanrio (8136 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 30th): Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 4 February. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2026): Cutoff Done; Capping Confirmed; Constituent Changes?

The review period is complete and Advantest's capping has been confirmed. We highlight potential and close adds and deletes for the index. There...

Brian Freitas

Kandenko (1942 JP): A US$1.0 Billion Secondary Offering

The timing of the placement after upgrading full-year forecasts will not be well-received. The offering as a percentage of out. shares and ADV are...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 23rd): Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lasertec, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Fast...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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