Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)</a>, raised around US$2bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), raised around US$2bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
Sany Heavy Industry was the world’s third largest and China’s largest construction machinery company in terms of construction machinery’s cumulative revenue from 2020 to 2024, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Sany Heavy Industries A/H Lockup Expiry - US$800m Lockup Release

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 6 companies that listed in October 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.</li>
<li>The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$12.6bn (US$1.6bn) with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jst-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39885:1" rel="noopener">JST Group (6687 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cig-shanghai-co-ltd-55f0be8f-8288-4e62-96ac-7bbd6c760e02" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46336:1" rel="noopener">CIG Shanghai (6166 HK)</a> making up the bulk of it.</li>
<li>The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 11-424% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.</li>
</ul>


There are 6 companies that listed in October 2025 where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in the next 5 weeks.
The total lock-up expiry across companies is HK$12.6bn (US$1.6bn) with Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), JST Group (6687 HK) and CIG Shanghai (6166 HK) making up the bulk of it.
The cornerstone investor lock-up expiry will increase the number of free float shares between 11-424% and some of the stocks could come under pressure ahead of the expiry.


HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As discussed in our 2026 sector outlook published today (link), we see largesize mining excavators in overseas as well as emerging markets as key growth areas in 2026E.</li><li>In China market, we believe drivers will come from (1) the replacement-driven upcycle of excavators, and (2) an early stage of crane demand recovery.</li><li>We revise up SANY’s 2025E-27E earnings forecast by 2- 5%, after incorporating higher sales volume and finance income following the recent HK IPO. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As discussed in our 2026 sector outlook published today (link), we see largesize mining excavators in overseas as well as emerging markets as key growth areas in 2026E.In China market, we believe drivers will come from (1) the replacement-driven upcycle of excavators, and (2) an early stage of crane demand recovery.We revise up SANY’s 2025E-27E earnings forecast by 2- 5%, after incorporating higher sales volume and finance income following the recent HK IPO. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SANY Heavy (6031 HK/600031 CH) - Clear Target on Mining Excavator Growth

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd-8806deaf-04c9-4411-b1ee-92e813b9c5e0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45955:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)</a> has rallied 15.3% after its IPO, and 3Q25 earnings are in a consistent trend. We do not expect a significant change in earnings forecasts. </li>
<li>The mere 0.1% discount to its A-share looks rich. The FY26F PER of 17.7x is also significantly higher than its peers, reflecting most of its strengths.</li>
<li>Even if it re-rates to a similar premium as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a>, the upside is only 5.8%. The risks clearly outweigh the return.</li>
</ul>



Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK) has rallied 15.3% after its IPO, and 3Q25 earnings are in a consistent trend. We do not expect a significant change in earnings forecasts. 
The mere 0.1% discount to its A-share looks rich. The FY26F PER of 17.7x is also significantly higher than its peers, reflecting most of its strengths.
Even if it re-rates to a similar premium as Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK), the upside is only 5.8%. The risks clearly outweigh the return.


Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK): What to Do Now After the IPO?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We forecast SANY Heavy / Zoomlion to deliver net profit growth (excluding FX change) of 40% YoY / 30% YoY in 2Q26, driven by strong machinery sales in general.</li><li>For SANY International (SANYI), we expect a moderate net profit decline (-10% YoY) in 2Q26, with the rate of decline improving from 1Q26’s -20%.</li><li>Meanwhile, given that RMB continued to appreciate against the major currencies in 2Q26 (+6% YoY vs USD; +4% YoY vs EUR), we expect FX loss to be recognized for most of the construction machinery companies, with the actual loss subject to their regional sales breakdown and hedging strategies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast SANY Heavy / Zoomlion to deliver net profit growth (excluding FX change) of 40% YoY / 30% YoY in 2Q26, driven by strong machinery sales in general.For SANY International (SANYI), we expect a moderate net profit decline (-10% YoY) in 2Q26, with the rate of decline improving from 1Q26’s -20%.Meanwhile, given that RMB continued to appreciate against the major currencies in 2Q26 (+6% YoY vs USD; +4% YoY vs EUR), we expect FX loss to be recognized for most of the construction machinery companies, with the actual loss subject to their regional sales breakdown and hedging strategies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capital Goods - Machinery: 2Q26 earnings preview

China

Sany Heavy Industry is a Chinese multinational heavy equipment manufacturing company that specializes in manufacturing and marketing construction machinery. Its product range includes concrete machinery, excavators, cranes, road construction machinery, and piling machinery. The company is headquartered in Changsha, Hunan, China, and was founded in 1994.

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Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK)

Sany Heavy Industries A/H Lockup Expiry - US$800m Lockup Release

Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK), raised around US$2bn in its H-share listing. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

HK: Cornerstone/Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiries in April

There are 6 companies that listed in Oct where the lock-up for cornerstone investors ends in April. JST has a pre-IPO expiry too. The total lock-up...

Brian Freitas

SANY Heavy (6031 HK/600031 CH) - Clear Target on Mining Excavator Growth

As discussed in our 2026 sector outlook published today (link), we see largesize mining excavators in overseas as well as emerging markets as key...

CMB International