HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China's construction and infrastructure machinery sector maintained an encouraging momentum in Sep and close out 3Q20 with strengths. We see no signs of slowing down despite the rapid recovery in 2Q20. Sales of excavators and wheel loaders rose 64.8% YoY and 16.3% YoY in Sep, respectively; which is the strongest growth in the last two months. This is a reflection of the increase in infrastructure investments after the massive special purpose bonds issued by the local governments in the last four months.We expect the rise in infrastructure spending and recovery in export demand to drive the industry's positive outlook in the next 12 months, benefiting names including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20183:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xcmg-construction-machin-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:426:1" rel="noopener">Xcmg Construction Machin A (000425 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zoomlion-heavy-industry-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7817:1" rel="noopener">Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK)</a>.  Backed by an undemanding 0.82x P/B, catch up in unit sales and attractive dividend yield of 10.7%, Lonking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener"></a>stands out with particular favourable risk-return payoff, in our view.

China's construction and infrastructure machinery sector maintained an encouraging momentum in Sep and close out 3Q20 with strengths. We see no signs of slowing down despite the rapid recovery in 2Q20. Sales of excavators and wheel loaders rose 64.8% YoY and 16.3% YoY in Sep, respectively; which is the strongest growth in the last two months. This is a reflection of the increase in infrastructure investments after the massive special purpose bonds issued by the local governments in the last four months.We expect the rise in infrastructure spending and recovery in export demand to drive the industry's positive outlook in the next 12 months, benefiting names including Lonking Holdings (3339 HK), Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), Xcmg Construction Machin A (000425 CH) and Zoomlion Heavy Industry H (1157 HK).  Backed by an undemanding 0.82x P/B, catch up in unit sales and attractive dividend yield of 10.7%, Lonking stands out with particular favourable risk-return payoff, in our view.

China Construction Machinery: No Sign of Slowing Down

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is above 60,000 we are constructive from a price perspective.  China (CSI 300, MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while South Korea (KOSPI) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure.

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is above 60,000 we are constructive from a price perspective.  China (CSI 300, MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while South Korea (KOSPI) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment / Equity Capital Markets

Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment (9630 HK)

Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/circuit-fabology-microelectronics-equipment-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48834:1" rel="noopener">Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment (9630 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$252.73, raising HK$3,245 million (US$414 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/circuit-fabology-h-share-listing-9630-hk-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:243438" rel="noopener">Circuit Fabology H Share Listing (9630 HK): The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/circuit-fabology-h-share-listing-9630-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:243623" rel="noopener">Circuit Fabology H Share Listing (9630 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The grey market price is up 76%, partly due to A Shares rising 20% since the prospectus was released. The international oversubscription rate was the highest of large AH listings. </li>
</ul>



Circuit Fabology Microelectronics Equipment (9630 HK) priced its H Share at HK$252.73, raising HK$3,245 million (US$414 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Circuit Fabology H Share Listing (9630 HK): The Investment Case and Circuit Fabology H Share Listing (9630 HK): Valuation Insights. 
The grey market price is up 76%, partly due to A Shares rising 20% since the prospectus was released. The international oversubscription rate was the highest of large AH listings. 


Circuit Fabology H Share Listing (9630 HK): Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lingyi-itech-guangdong-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50139:1" rel="noopener">Lingyi iTech (1688 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$10.18, raising HK$8,264 million (US$1.1 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lingyi-itech-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:242098" rel="noopener">Lingyi ITech H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lingyi-itech-h-share-listing-1688-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:243262" rel="noopener">Lingyi ITech H Share Listing (1688 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The grey market price is up 21%, partly due to A Shares rising 14% since the prospectus was released. The 50.6% AH discount is attractive. </li>
</ul>



Lingyi iTech (1688 HK) priced its H Share at HK$10.18, raising HK$8,264 million (US$1.1 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in Lingyi ITech H Share Listing: The Investment Case and Lingyi ITech H Share Listing (1688 HK): Valuation Insights. 
The grey market price is up 21%, partly due to A Shares rising 14% since the prospectus was released. The 50.6% AH discount is attractive. 


Lingyi ITech H Share Listing (1688 HK): Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-micro-corp-5c356907-201f-4bd8-8190-24de284e1329" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50247:1" rel="noopener">SG Micro (3661 HK)</a> priced its H Share at HK$85.20, raising HK$4,601 million (US$587 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sg-micro-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:242274" rel="noopener">SG Micro H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sg-micro-h-share-listing-3661-hk-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:243268" rel="noopener">SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>The grey market price is up 30%, partly due to A Shares rising 9% since the prospectus was released. The 46.5% AH discount is attractive. </li>
</ul>



SG Micro (3661 HK) priced its H Share at HK$85.20, raising HK$4,601 million (US$587 million) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
I discussed the H Share listing in SG Micro H Share Listing: The Investment Case and SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Valuation Insights. 
The grey market price is up 30%, partly due to A Shares rising 9% since the prospectus was released. The 46.5% AH discount is attractive. 


SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Trading Debut

China

SANY Heavy Industry Co., Ltd manufactures and markets construction and engineering machinery and related parts. The Company produces and sells concrete pumps, concrete pump vehicles, road rollers, pavers, and other related products. Sany Heavy Industry markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH)

China Construction Machinery: No Sign of Slowing Down

Both excavator and wheel loader sales are good in Sep and show no sign of slowing down. We believe China construction machinery industry will stay...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Remain Overweight EM Relative To EAFE

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Construction Machinery: No Sign of Slowing Down

Both excavator and wheel loader sales are good in Sep and show no sign of slowing down. We believe China construction machinery industry will stay...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Remain Overweight EM Relative To EAFE

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is...

Vermilion Research

Circuit Fabology H Share Listing (9630 HK): Trading Debut

Circuit Fabology priced its H Share at HK$252.73, raising HK$3,245 million (US$414 million) in gross proceeds. The international oversubscription...

Arun George

Lingyi ITech H Share Listing (1688 HK): Trading Debut

Lingyi iTech priced its H Share at HK$10.18, raising HK$8,264 million (US$1.1 billion) in gross proceeds. The implied 50.6% AH discount is attractive

Arun George

SG Micro H Share Listing (3661 HK): Trading Debut

SG Micro priced its H Share at HK$85.20, raising HK$4,601 million (US$587 million) in gross proceeds. The current AH discount of 46.5% is attractive.

Arun George