Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OXY is structurally transformed. Debt has been sharply reduced with record production and maximum operating leverage.</li>
<li>Supply disruption is structurally more severe than the combined impact of the 1973 OPEC embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution.</li>
<li>Permian Basin dominates output; minimal Middle East exposure. The crisis harms competitors; OXY remains unimpeded.</li>
</ul>


OXY is structurally transformed. Debt has been sharply reduced with record production and maximum operating leverage.
Supply disruption is structurally more severe than the combined impact of the 1973 OPEC embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
Permian Basin dominates output; minimal Middle East exposure. The crisis harms competitors; OXY remains unimpeded.


Occidental Petroleum Is Uniquely Positioned To Capture A Generational Windfall

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hub Power Company (HUBC) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 1HFY26 financial result and future outlook.</li><li>The company’s two Thar-based plants, Thar Energy Limited (TEL) and ThalNova, have declared dividends. HUBC has received Rs4.9bn from ThalNova in 2QFY26 and Rs 0.7bn from TEL. Management highlighted that the major dividend from TEL will be recorded in 3QFY26.</li><li>Overdue receivables currently stand at Rs68bn for CPHGC, Rs8bn for TEL, Rs7bn for ThalNova, Rs6bn for Laraib, and Rs1.4bn for Narowal.</li></ul>

Hub Power Company (HUBC) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 1HFY26 financial result and future outlook.The company’s two Thar-based plants, Thar Energy Limited (TEL) and ThalNova, have declared dividends. HUBC has received Rs4.9bn from ThalNova in 2QFY26 and Rs 0.7bn from TEL. Management highlighted that the major dividend from TEL will be recorded in 3QFY26.Overdue receivables currently stand at Rs68bn for CPHGC, Rs8bn for TEL, Rs7bn for ThalNova, Rs6bn for Laraib, and Rs1.4bn for Narowal.

Topline Flash Note: Hub Power Company (HUBC): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

<ul>
<li>Global oil majors are slashing jobs and investments as weak demand, OPEC+ supply hikes, and rising costs drive the sharpest industry retrenchment since the 2020 collapse.</li>
<li>U.S. producers face added strain from tariffs, cost inflation, and consolidation, forcing capex cuts, layoffs, and highlighting the slowdown of shale-driven growth that once powered record output.</li>
<li>ExxonMobil emerges strongest among peers, supported by low debt, robust free cash flow, advantaged low-cost assets, and global diversification, giving it unmatched resilience in a prolonged low-price environment.</li>
</ul>


Global oil majors are slashing jobs and investments as weak demand, OPEC+ supply hikes, and rising costs drive the sharpest industry retrenchment since the 2020 collapse.
U.S. producers face added strain from tariffs, cost inflation, and consolidation, forcing capex cuts, layoffs, and highlighting the slowdown of shale-driven growth that once powered record output.
ExxonMobil emerges strongest among peers, supported by low debt, robust free cash flow, advantaged low-cost assets, and global diversification, giving it unmatched resilience in a prolonged low-price environment.


Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

<ul>
<li>OPEC+’s accelerated supply rollback put Aramco’s earnings and dividend policy under pressure, forcing the oil giant into debt financing despite its unmatched low-cost advantage.</li>
<li>With subdued Brent prices, Aramco’s cash flow has weakened, making its government-linked dividends increasingly reliant on borrowing amid volatile market conditions.</li>
<li>Saudi Arabia’s supply gamble boosts long-term dominance but leaves Aramco exposed to near-term financial strain, as market outcomes hinge on OPEC+’s 07/Sep decision.</li>
</ul>


OPEC+’s accelerated supply rollback put Aramco’s earnings and dividend policy under pressure, forcing the oil giant into debt financing despite its unmatched low-cost advantage.
With subdued Brent prices, Aramco’s cash flow has weakened, making its government-linked dividends increasingly reliant on borrowing amid volatile market conditions.
Saudi Arabia’s supply gamble boosts long-term dominance but leaves Aramco exposed to near-term financial strain, as market outcomes hinge on OPEC+’s 07/Sep decision.


Aramco Under Pressure as OPEC-Plus Is Set to Roll the Dice on Supply

<ul>
<li>Aramco’s 2024 revenue fell 1% YoY, missing estimates by 7.6%, while net profit dropped 12.4%. EPS missed by 0.3%. Average realized oil prices declined by 4.1%.</li>
<li>The decline stemmed from weaker crude prices, higher costs, lower refining margins, and reduced income. Total hydrocarbon production fell 3.1% YoY in 2024.</li>
<li>Saudi Aramco set 2025 dividends at USD 85.4 billion, down 31.1% from 2024. Performance-linked incentives were slashed by 98% to USD 900 million from USD 43.1 billion in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Aramco’s 2024 revenue fell 1% YoY, missing estimates by 7.6%, while net profit dropped 12.4%. EPS missed by 0.3%. Average realized oil prices declined by 4.1%.
The decline stemmed from weaker crude prices, higher costs, lower refining margins, and reduced income. Total hydrocarbon production fell 3.1% YoY in 2024.
Saudi Aramco set 2025 dividends at USD 85.4 billion, down 31.1% from 2024. Performance-linked incentives were slashed by 98% to USD 900 million from USD 43.1 billion in 2024.


[Earnings Review] Aramco’s 2024 Performance Hit by Weak Oil, Cuts 2025 Dividend by One-Third

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., doing business as Saudi Aramco, operates as an oil exploration company. The Company focuses on hydrocarbons exploration, production, refining, distribution, and shipping, as well as provides crude oil marketing services. Saudi Aramco serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB)

Occidental Petroleum Is Uniquely Positioned To Capture A Generational Windfall

Convergence of a lean balance sheet, record production, unimpeded domestic operations, & maximum oil price leverage bodes well for OXY.

Mint Finance

Topline Flash Note: Hub Power Company (HUBC): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Hub Power Company (HUBC) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 1HFY26 financial result and future outlook. The company’s two Thar-based...

Topline Securities

Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...

Mint Finance

Aramco Under Pressure as OPEC-Plus Is Set to Roll the Dice on Supply

OPEC+ supply cuts strain Aramco's earnings and dividend policy, leading to debt financing and reliance on borrowing amid volatile market conditions.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Aramco’s 2024 Performance Hit by Weak Oil, Cuts 2025 Dividend by One-Third

Aramco's 2024 revenue and net profit dropped, missing estimates due to weaker crude prices, higher costs, and reduced production. Dividends for...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Occidental Petroleum Is Uniquely Positioned To Capture A Generational Windfall

Convergence of a lean balance sheet, record production, unimpeded domestic operations, & maximum oil price leverage bodes well for OXY.

Mint Finance

Topline Flash Note: Hub Power Company (HUBC): Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Hub Power Company (HUBC) held its corporate briefing today to discuss 1HFY26 financial result and future outlook. The company’s two Thar-based...

Topline Securities

Oil and Gas Giants Shift from Expansion to Discipline Amid Supply Glut and Cost Pressures

​Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...

Mint Finance

Aramco Under Pressure as OPEC-Plus Is Set to Roll the Dice on Supply

​OPEC+ supply cuts strain Aramco's earnings and dividend policy, leading to debt financing and reliance on borrowing amid volatile market conditions.

Mint Finance

[Earnings Review] Aramco’s 2024 Performance Hit by Weak Oil, Cuts 2025 Dividend by One-Third

​Aramco's 2024 revenue and net profit dropped, missing estimates due to weaker crude prices, higher costs, and reduced production. Dividends for...

Mint Finance

Global oil majors are cutting jobs and investments due to weak demand and rising costs, with ExxonMobil emerging as the strongest player thanks to...

OPEC+ supply cuts strain Aramco's earnings and dividend policy, leading to debt financing and reliance on borrowing amid volatile market conditions.

Aramco's 2024 revenue and net profit dropped, missing estimates due to weaker crude prices, higher costs, and reduced production. Dividends for...