Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aramco’s Q3 revenue is expected to fall 10.6% QoQ and 0.8% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 6.8% QoQ and 24.4% YoY.</li>
<li>Saudi Aramco is vulnerable to oil price declines due to stalled production expansion from OPEC quotas, facing pressure from lower upstream realisations and weaker refining margins.</li>
<li>Aramco plans to increase gas production by 60% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels. It aims to capture 11m tonnes of CO2 annually from its facilities by 2035.</li>
</ul>


Aramco’s Q3 revenue is expected to fall 10.6% QoQ and 0.8% YoY, while its EPS is anticipated to drop 6.8% QoQ and 24.4% YoY.
Saudi Aramco is vulnerable to oil price declines due to stalled production expansion from OPEC quotas, facing pressure from lower upstream realisations and weaker refining margins.
Aramco plans to increase gas production by 60% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels. It aims to capture 11m tonnes of CO2 annually from its facilities by 2035.


[Earnings Preview] Aramco Projected to Bleed in Q3 Amid Significant Drop in Crude Oil Prices

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.</li>
<li>There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

<ul>
<li>Aramco’s Q2 operating revenue grew 5.7% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Meanwhile, net profit fell by 3.4% YoY but its EPS edged past estimates by 0.8%.</li>
<li>Total hydrocarbon production fell 8.9% YoY to 12.3 mboepd while crude oil realisations rose 8.8% YoY.</li>
<li>In Q2, Aramco declared dividends totalling USD 31.1 billion, despite an 18.1% YoY decline in free cash flow to USD 19 billion.</li>
</ul>


Aramco’s Q2 operating revenue grew 5.7% YoY but missed estimates by 0.3%. Meanwhile, net profit fell by 3.4% YoY but its EPS edged past estimates by 0.8%.
Total hydrocarbon production fell 8.9% YoY to 12.3 mboepd while crude oil realisations rose 8.8% YoY.
In Q2, Aramco declared dividends totalling USD 31.1 billion, despite an 18.1% YoY decline in free cash flow to USD 19 billion.


[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

<ul>
<li>Schlumberger’s revenue is expected to rise 12.1% YoY and net profit by 15.3% YoY in Q2 2024. Management sees sequential margin growth across divisions.</li>
<li>Q2 growth is expected to be driven by SLB’s International segment, offsetting North American weakness. The International segment contributed 82% of Q1 revenue.</li>
<li>SLB announced plans to increase shareholder returns from USD 2.5 billion to USD 3 billion in 2024 and to USD 4 billion in 2025.</li>
</ul>


Schlumberger’s revenue is expected to rise 12.1% YoY and net profit by 15.3% YoY in Q2 2024. Management sees sequential margin growth across divisions.
Q2 growth is expected to be driven by SLB’s International segment, offsetting North American weakness. The International segment contributed 82% of Q1 revenue.
SLB announced plans to increase shareholder returns from USD 2.5 billion to USD 3 billion in 2024 and to USD 4 billion in 2025.


Schlumberger’s International Strength to Propel Q2 Growth

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., doing business as Saudi Aramco, operates as an oil exploration company. The Company focuses on hydrocarbons exploration, production, refining, distribution, and shipping, as well as provides crude oil marketing services. Saudi Aramco serves customers worldwide.

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Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB)

[Earnings Preview] Aramco Projected to Bleed in Q3 Amid Significant Drop in Crude Oil Prices

Aramco's revenue and profit are projected to decline QoQ and YoY due to weak crude oil prices. OPEC supply quotas restrict output increases, making...

Mint Finance

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 241 adds/208 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.5bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...

Mint Finance

Schlumberger’s International Strength to Propel Q2 Growth

International and Aker's subsea operations will drive Q1 growth. SLB expects new subsea bookings to grow 25% YoY to over USD 4 billion in 2024. The...

Mint Finance

Screening for GEMs: June 2024

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Preview] Aramco Projected to Bleed in Q3 Amid Significant Drop in Crude Oil Prices

Aramco's revenue and profit are projected to decline QoQ and YoY due to weak crude oil prices. OPEC supply quotas restrict output increases, making...

Mint Finance

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 241 adds/208 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.5bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

[Earnings Review] Saudi Aramco’s Earnings Dip as Lower Output and Refining Margins Bite

​Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...

Mint Finance

Schlumberger’s International Strength to Propel Q2 Growth

International and Aker's subsea operations will drive Q1 growth. SLB expects new subsea bookings to grow 25% YoY to over USD 4 billion in 2024. The...

Mint Finance

Screening for GEMs: June 2024

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Aramco's Q2 revenue rose 5% YoY but earnings fell 3.4% due to lower production and refining margins. Dividends were declared at USD 31.1 billion...