Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> witnessed 3% YoY revenue growth in 1QFY26 to ¥18.9B as overseas pharmaceutical and crop protection sales while domestic market remained under pressure.</li>
<li>Kaken’s major drug Clenafin saw revenue drop 3% to ¥4.4B on patent cliff, while Ecclock helped drive revenue growing 18% YoY to ¥803M.</li>
<li>Kaken reiterated FY26 guidance where it expects revenue to fall 6% YoY to ¥88 billion. No respite from immediate pangs in the form of drug price revision and generic competition.</li>
</ul>



Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) witnessed 3% YoY revenue growth in 1QFY26 to ¥18.9B as overseas pharmaceutical and crop protection sales while domestic market remained under pressure.
Kaken’s major drug Clenafin saw revenue drop 3% to ¥4.4B on patent cliff, while Ecclock helped drive revenue growing 18% YoY to ¥803M.
Kaken reiterated FY26 guidance where it expects revenue to fall 6% YoY to ¥88 billion. No respite from immediate pangs in the form of drug price revision and generic competition.


Kaken Pharma (4521 JP): FY26 Starts on a Bleak Note as Expected, Growth Pangs to Stay for Now

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> witnessed 31% YoY revenue growth in FY25 to ¥94 billion on the back of flurry of one-time upfront payments, resulting in surge in profits too.</li>
<li>Kaken’s major drug Clenafin saw revenue drop of 2% YoY to ¥17 billion on patent cliff, while Artz revenue grew 6% YoY to ¥19 billion.</li>
<li>For FY26, Kaken expects revenue to fall 6% to ¥88 billion. No respite from immediate pangs of revenue loss from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top-selling products.</li>
</ul>



Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) witnessed 31% YoY revenue growth in FY25 to ¥94 billion on the back of flurry of one-time upfront payments, resulting in surge in profits too.
Kaken’s major drug Clenafin saw revenue drop of 2% YoY to ¥17 billion on patent cliff, while Artz revenue grew 6% YoY to ¥19 billion.
For FY26, Kaken expects revenue to fall 6% to ¥88 billion. No respite from immediate pangs of revenue loss from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top-selling products.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Bleak FY26 Ahead, No Immediate Respite In Sight

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> reported 42% YoY jump in revenue during H1FY25 on one-time upfront payment, while operating profit also witnessed hefty growth of 255% YoY.</li>
<li>Top selling products are impacted by NHI drug price revision and increasing competition. The company has reiterated FY25 guidance. Profitability is expected to deteriorate sequentially in H2.</li>
<li>The respite from one time receipt will not compensate for the revenue loss from the negative impact from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top selling products.</li>
</ul>



Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) reported 42% YoY jump in revenue during H1FY25 on one-time upfront payment, while operating profit also witnessed hefty growth of 255% YoY.
Top selling products are impacted by NHI drug price revision and increasing competition. The company has reiterated FY25 guidance. Profitability is expected to deteriorate sequentially in H2.
The respite from one time receipt will not compensate for the revenue loss from the negative impact from NHI drug price revision and generic competition for top selling products.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): One-Off Payment Boosts H1FY25 Revenue; Headed for Another Bleak H2

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>No surprise: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP)</a> shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.</li>
<li>Argyle failed to boot one <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">CMCDI (133 HK)</a> director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.</li>
<li>The Offeror now has 90.16% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.</li>
</ul>


No surprise: Keisei Electric Railway (9009 JP) shareholders voted down Palliser's proposal. If the vote was close, Palliser may ups its rhetorical game, and takes a harder stance.
Argyle failed to boot one CMCDI (133 HK) director. They'll next target the management agreement renewal; and agitate the company buy back 20% of shares outstanding at 90% of NAV.
The Offeror now has 90.16% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) - so this will get suspended at the close of the Offer.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Two years ago, generic pharmaceuticals co <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sawai-group-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35512:1" rel="noopener">Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP)</a> traded at 10x PER, 6% ROE, and far below book. 10mos ago the price got back to 1x PBR.</li>
<li>By then, their US sub had partly been put into "Current Assets AFS" as it was for sale. By Dec23, it was completely there. In Jan, a "business review" <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C4887/ZoWa/Jdfs/MhK5.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a>.</li>
<li>The US business sale led to <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C4887/RLCz/a3oE/RxQz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a loss, but growth this year</a>, and a <a href="https://pdf.irpocket.com/C4887/BbNL/QAgJ/DjCb.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new MTMP</a> in early June. Monday, we got a HUGE buyback announcement. Today, an 8+% pop.</li>
</ul>


Two years ago, generic pharmaceuticals co Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP) traded at 10x PER, 6% ROE, and far below book. 10mos ago the price got back to 1x PBR.
By then, their US sub had partly been put into "Current Assets AFS" as it was for sale. By Dec23, it was completely there. In Jan, a "business review" announcement.
The US business sale led to a loss, but growth this year, and a new MTMP in early June. Monday, we got a HUGE buyback announcement. Today, an 8+% pop.


Sawai Group (4887) - BIGLY Buyback To "Drastically" Change Capital Structure

Japan

Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes medical products. The Company produces drugs, healthcare products, and other products. Sawai Group Holdings also produces medical equipment.

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Sawai Group Holdings (4887 JP)

Kaken Pharma (4521 JP): FY26 Starts on a Bleak Note as Expected, Growth Pangs to Stay for Now

Kaken Pharmaceutical saw 3% revenue growth in 1QFY26 supported by overseas sales. Major drug revenue dropped. Growth pangs are here to stay. FY26...

Tina Banerjee

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Bleak FY26 Ahead, No Immediate Respite In Sight

Kaken Pharmaceutical saw 31% revenue growth in FY25, but expects a 6% revenue drop in FY26 due to NHI drug price revision and generic competition...

Tina Banerjee

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): One-Off Payment Boosts H1FY25 Revenue; Headed for Another Bleak H2

Kaken Pharmaceutical sees strong revenue and profit growth in H1FY25, but faces challenges ahead with NHI drug price revisions and increased...

Tina Banerjee

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sawai Group (4887) - BIGLY Buyback To "Drastically" Change Capital Structure

Sawai Group has announced a large buyback, effectively putting the 3 year MTMP buyback into Year 1, all executed in the market. That means 10% of...

Travis Lundy

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Kaken Pharma (4521 JP): FY26 Starts on a Bleak Note as Expected, Growth Pangs to Stay for Now

​Kaken Pharmaceutical saw 3% revenue growth in 1QFY26 supported by overseas sales. Major drug revenue dropped. Growth pangs are here to stay. FY26...

Tina Banerjee

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Bleak FY26 Ahead, No Immediate Respite In Sight

​Kaken Pharmaceutical saw 31% revenue growth in FY25, but expects a 6% revenue drop in FY26 due to NHI drug price revision and generic competition...

Tina Banerjee

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): One-Off Payment Boosts H1FY25 Revenue; Headed for Another Bleak H2

​Kaken Pharmaceutical sees strong revenue and profit growth in H1FY25, but faces challenges ahead with NHI drug price revisions and increased...

Tina Banerjee

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, China Merchants, Great Eastern, Jardine Matheson/JCNC

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sawai Group (4887) - BIGLY Buyback To "Drastically" Change Capital Structure

Sawai Group has announced a large buyback, effectively putting the 3 year MTMP buyback into Year 1, all executed in the market. That means 10% of...

Travis Lundy

Kaken Pharmaceutical saw 3% revenue growth in 1QFY26 supported by overseas sales. Major drug revenue dropped. Growth pangs are here to stay. FY26...

Kaken Pharmaceutical saw 31% revenue growth in FY25, but expects a 6% revenue drop in FY26 due to NHI drug price revision and generic competition...

Kaken Pharmaceutical sees strong revenue and profit growth in H1FY25, but faces challenges ahead with NHI drug price revisions and increased...