IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-deals/nippon-life-seeks-to-buy-medical-data-firm-in-m-a-milestone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that Nippon Life Insurance will launch a tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a> at a valuation up to JPY60 billion.</li>
<li>If the valuation refers to market cap, the offer is JPY1,500, a 225% premium to the last close of JPY462. If it relates to EV, the offer price is JPY1,550. </li>
<li>Despite the staggering premium, it does not represent an all-time high (share price traded higher in November 2021). Nevertheless, a binding proposal would be a done deal. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Nippon Life Insurance will launch a tender offer for Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) at a valuation up to JPY60 billion.
If the valuation refers to market cap, the offer is JPY1,500, a 225% premium to the last close of JPY462. If it relates to EV, the offer price is JPY1,550. 
Despite the staggering premium, it does not represent an all-time high (share price traded higher in November 2021). Nevertheless, a binding proposal would be a done deal. 


Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Rumoured Tender Offer at 3x the Last Close

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a> was IPOed in 2014. MitCorp sold. Others sold. Fujifilm and Medipal stayed in. The stock ran up. SBI bought from Fujifilm in Nov2020 at ¥2355.</li>
<li>The stock fell, SBI bought more in 2021-2022. Then it fell more in 2023 and SBI bought more, then fell more in 2024 and SBI bought more. </li>
<li>The Nikkei <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUB115D70R10C25A9000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> today that Nippon Life will announce a TOB on 15 December with a max price of ¥60bn (242% premium), which coincidentally would bring SBI close to breakeven.</li>
</ul>



Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) was IPOed in 2014. MitCorp sold. Others sold. Fujifilm and Medipal stayed in. The stock ran up. SBI bought from Fujifilm in Nov2020 at ¥2355.
The stock fell, SBI bought more in 2021-2022. Then it fell more in 2023 and SBI bought more, then fell more in 2024 and SBI bought more. 
The Nikkei reports today that Nippon Life will announce a TOB on 15 December with a max price of ¥60bn (242% premium), which coincidentally would bring SBI close to breakeven.


[Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.</li>
<li>I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, "neither here nor there."</li>
<li>But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2021-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2021</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2022-high-conviction-shinsei-bank" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2022</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2023-high-conviction-sbi-shinsei-bank-8303-jp-still-reading-between-the-lines" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2023</a> and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO is due to be priced on 8 December and start trading on 17 December 2025.
I have been reluctant to write because of my general lack of excitement regarding the IPO and its after-market prospects. It is, as a friend says, "neither here nor there."
But as the bank was my High Conviction Long trade for 2021, 2022, and 2023 and I wrote about the events in the interim, I thought I should opine.


[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,551m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, Fujikura, Toyoda Gosei, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsui E&amp;S, Daihen, Sbi, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 28th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD19,551m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec, Fujikura, Toyoda Gosei, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsui E&amp;S, Daihen, Sbi, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 28th): SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of M-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of M-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial, Ebara, Honda Motor, Softbank, Ebara, Kioxia, Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, Sony Financial, Rakuten.


M-Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Rumoured Tender Offer at 3x the Last Close

The Nikkei reports that Nippon Life will launch a tender offer at a valuation of JPY60bn. If the valuation refers to market cap, the offer is...

Arun George

[Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn

The Nikkei reports Nippon Life will launch a TOB to buy out Medical Data Vision at "up to ¥60bn", announcing it tomorrow. That is a whopping 240%...

Travis Lundy

[Japan IPO] The SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO; Cosmetically Pretty, Otherwise Meh

The SBI Shinsei Bank IPO at north of book comes only 2 years post-squeezeout at half of book. It was a big trade for SBI but they need to sell...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 28th): SBI, Advantest, Furukawa Electric, Mizuho Financial, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SBI (8473 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Furukawa Electric (5801 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

M-Japan Index Earning Revision (Nov): Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Rakuten, Kioxia, Sony Financial

We analyzed M-Japan's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Toyota Motor (7203 JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Rakuten (4755 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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