Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> is/was my High Conviction call for 2022. </li>
<li>SBI went to 47.77% in the Tender and is higher as Shinsei has bought back stock. Shinsei has more to go and could get funkier to buy back more.</li>
<li>8 February is the EGM to approve a new board and explicit SBI control. Delisting expectations will rise after that, but practically it will take time.</li>
</ul>



Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) is/was my High Conviction call for 2022. 
SBI went to 47.77% in the Tender and is higher as Shinsei has bought back stock. Shinsei has more to go and could get funkier to buy back more.
8 February is the EGM to approve a new board and explicit SBI control. Delisting expectations will rise after that, but practically it will take time.


2022 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank Update

<ul>
<li>The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20210705E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  </li>
<li>At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.</li>
</ul>


The TSE will move to a new cash equity market structure on 4 April 2022. There will be three new sections: TSE Prime, TSE Standard, and TSE Growth.
The Nikkei Index Team in July 2021 announced a change to the Nikkei 225 Average Guidebook language which said constituents had to be members of TSE Prime going forward.  
At least one Nikkei 225 name and possibly two are headed for TSE Standard when the TSE makes its announcement on 11 January 2022. Suggested treatments are discussed.


Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

<ul>
<li>I was originally going to title this <em>Shinsei Bank Buyback to Continue - Watch the Squeeze</em>.</li>
<li>In reviewing the new news, and the existing setup, and reviewing my previous work on the name (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy/insights?fulltext=Shinsei" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>), I am inclined to repeat my 2021 High Conviction trade. Shinsei Bank.</li>
<li>So I did. Shinsei is my High Conviction Idea for a second year in a row. </li>
</ul>


I was originally going to title this Shinsei Bank Buyback to Continue - Watch the Squeeze.
In reviewing the new news, and the existing setup, and reviewing my previous work on the name (here), I am inclined to repeat my 2021 High Conviction trade. Shinsei Bank.
So I did. Shinsei is my High Conviction Idea for a second year in a row. 


<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings</a> Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank</a> ended with SBI getting 47.77%, and tender offer pro-ration at 100%. Either someone big, or a lot of people stayed away.</li>
<li>Friday saw Murakami-san's City Index Elevens entity file an amended Large Shareholder Filing saying they owned zero shares. So it turns out he tendered everything, and float is elsewhere.</li>
<li>The reaction post-tender Monday indicated someone was wrong. The reaction Tuesday/Wednesday indicated others did. Thursday/Friday index selldowns were flat to Tender Price. Now we have a new, somewhat unexpected conundrum.</li>
</ul>


The SBI Holdings Tender Offer for Shinsei Bank ended with SBI getting 47.77%, and tender offer pro-ration at 100%. Either someone big, or a lot of people stayed away.
Friday saw Murakami-san's City Index Elevens entity file an amended Large Shareholder Filing saying they owned zero shares. So it turns out he tendered everything, and float is elsewhere.
The reaction post-tender Monday indicated someone was wrong. The reaction Tuesday/Wednesday indicated others did. Thursday/Friday index selldowns were flat to Tender Price. Now we have a new, somewhat unexpected conundrum.


Shinsei Bank (8303) - Now We Know Where the Float Is And It Is NOT In Murakami-San's Hands

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Net Protections IPO Trading - Peers Have Moved Lower. Provides the Only Exposure to BNPL in Japan

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

2022 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank Update

Shinsei is buying back stock and the EGM to install SBI's management is Tuesday 8 February. Watch for more delisting talk after. There is buyback...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Deletions/Additions in March(?) 2022 Due to TSE Market Structure Changes

There is likely to be one Nikkei 225 Change around the end of Q1 2022. There may be more. We will know more on 11 Jan 2022 how many deletions are...

Travis Lundy

2022 High Conviction - Shinsei Bank

Shinsei Bank is my High Conviction idea for the second year in a row. Just over 7x PER, well under half of book, limited float, and a squeeze out...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Bank (8303) - Now We Know Where the Float Is And It Is NOT In Murakami-San's Hands

SBI got 47.77% of Shinsei in the TOB. The question was how much Murakami-san tendered. The answer? Everything. This was a surprise to me and...

Travis Lundy

Net Protections IPO Trading - Peers Have Moved Lower. Provides the Only Exposure to BNPL in Japan

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, raised around US$570m in its Japan IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

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