Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>HSI extended gains to fresh highs, supported by strong breadth, surging Materials and IT names, and rising single stock option activity</li>
<li>Broad gains across all sectors highlighted strong momentum, with leadership from Materials and Information Technology.</li>
<li>We examine the distribution of returns since the April lows finding that the tails are distinctly unbalanced.</li>
</ul>


HSI extended gains to fresh highs, supported by strong breadth, surging Materials and IT names, and rising single stock option activity
Broad gains across all sectors highlighted strong momentum, with leadership from Materials and Information Technology.
We examine the distribution of returns since the April lows finding that the tails are distinctly unbalanced.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options (Sept 29 – Oct 03): Materials and IT Lead Amid Rising Option Activity

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has requested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s production output reach a 50:50 ratio between the U.S. and Taiwan.</li>
<li>By contrast, TSMC’s fab construction also requires strong supplier coordination, and in the case of its U.S. fabs, there are numerous regulatory hurdles to overcome.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>’s share price in Hong Kong has surged this year (+209.14%), significantly outperforming TSMC’s share price increase (+28.15%).</li>
</ul>


The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has requested that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s production output reach a 50:50 ratio between the U.S. and Taiwan.
By contrast, TSMC’s fab construction also requires strong supplier coordination, and in the case of its U.S. fabs, there are numerous regulatory hurdles to overcome.
Meanwhile, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)’s share price in Hong Kong has surged this year (+209.14%), significantly outperforming TSMC’s share price increase (+28.15%).


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility</li>
<li>But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months</li>
<li>USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument</li>
</ul>


US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility
But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months
USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument


Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, Meituan, Byd, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, Meituan, Byd, Xiaomi.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (September): $20bn Inflows

China

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

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Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options (Sept 29 – Oct 03): Materials and IT Lead Amid Rising Option Activity

HSI extended its rally with broad-based gains, sector leadership from Materials and IT, and option activity climbing to the high end of its range.

John Ley

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Hong Kong Connect Flows (September): $20bn Inflows

We estimate that there were inflows of USD 20,828.1 million into HK Stocks in September. We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Horizon Robotics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Single Stock Options (Sept 29 – Oct 03): Materials and IT Lead Amid Rising Option Activity

HSI extended its rally with broad-based gains, sector leadership from Materials and IT, and option activity climbing to the high end of its range.

John Ley

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is It Possible TSMC' Output Reach a 50:50 Ratio Between the U.S. And Taiwan?

​US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

​USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Hong Kong Connect Flows (September): $20bn Inflows

We estimate that there were inflows of USD 20,828.1 million into HK Stocks in September. We highlight inflows into Alibaba, Horizon Robotics,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US Secretary of Commerce pushes for equal production output between US and Taiwan for Taiwan Semiconductor, while Semiconductor Manufacturing...

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....