IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 9 March, the vote on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> comfortably passed. The offer is HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voyah-automobile-technology-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47617:1" rel="noopener">VOYAH Automobile Technology Company (7489 HK)</a> is set to be listed on 19 March. At the Dongfeng's last close price of HK$9.54, the implied value of VOYAH is HK$8.05. </li>
<li>Despite the market turmoil, VOYAH’s peers have fared well, up 7% since the vote. My VOYAH valuation range is HK$10.76 to HK$14.01, with a midpoint of HK$12.45.</li>
</ul>


On 9 March, the vote on the Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) comfortably passed. The offer is HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.

VOYAH Automobile Technology Company (7489 HK) is set to be listed on 19 March. At the Dongfeng's last close price of HK$9.54, the implied value of VOYAH is HK$8.05. 
Despite the market turmoil, VOYAH’s peers have fared well, up 7% since the vote. My VOYAH valuation range is HK$10.76 to HK$14.01, with a midpoint of HK$12.45.


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Thoughts on VOYAH’s Listing on 19 March

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>We study 27 A+H listing connect inclusion in two groups: 23 with delayed Connect inclusion (26 to 28 days after listing) and 4 with same-day inclusion.</li>
<li>The delayed group shows H underperformance versus A around inclusion (61% win rate, median +3.5% over 5D). All four same-day stocks posted positive hedged returns on day 0.</li>
<li>Actionable trades ahead: DELTON (1989 HK) pending listing on 20 March, and ESTUN (2715 HK) pending Connect inclusion.</li>
</ul>


We study 27 A+H listing connect inclusion in two groups: 23 with delayed Connect inclusion (26 to 28 days after listing) and 4 with same-day inclusion.
The delayed group shows H underperformance versus A around inclusion (61% win rate, median +3.5% over 5D). All four same-day stocks posted positive hedged returns on day 0.
Actionable trades ahead: DELTON (1989 HK) pending listing on 20 March, and ESTUN (2715 HK) pending Connect inclusion.


A+H Listing: The Connect Inclusion Stat and the Trade

<ul>
<li>The vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> offer is on 9 March. The offer is HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.</li>
<li>Valuation uncertainty on the offer value has increased due to two recent developments – the material derating of peers and a significant falloff in VOYAH delivery growth rates in February.</li>
<li>While valuation uncertainty warrants caution, my low-case valuation of the offer is HK$9.87 (4.7% above last close), suggesting limited downside. My high-case valuation is HK$11.18. (18.6% above last close).  </li>
</ul>


The vote on Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) offer is on 9 March. The offer is HK$6.68 per H Share + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share.
Valuation uncertainty on the offer value has increased due to two recent developments – the material derating of peers and a significant falloff in VOYAH delivery growth rates in February.
While valuation uncertainty warrants caution, my low-case valuation of the offer is HK$9.87 (4.7% above last close), suggesting limited downside. My high-case valuation is HK$11.18. (18.6% above last close).  


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Valuation Uncertainty Ahead of the Vote

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.</li>
<li>In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.</li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index Company announced HSCI review results after market close on Feb 13. In our previous note, we reviewed the Sep 2025 HK Connect cycle.
In this note, we provide an update on the forecasted upcoming implementation action by the mainland exchanges based on implementation rules and highlight stock performance thus far.
Our analysis suggests that selectivity will be critical in this cycle, with differentiation driven by pre-positioning, narrative alignment, and ownership structure rather than mechanical inclusion alone.


HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

<ul>
<li>The composite document and the updated VOYAH listing document for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> offer from Dongfeng Motor Corporation have been released. </li>
<li>The offer’s appraised value by Somerley (HK$10.93) and Altus (HK$11.37) has issues with the methodology. Nevertheless, my methodology, which aims to address these issues, suggests the valuations are justifiable. </li>
<li>The VOYAH listing document, which discloses the 2025 financials, points to strong fundamentals that lend further support to the valuation. The vote on 9 March remains low risk. </li>
</ul>


The composite document and the updated VOYAH listing document for the Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) offer from Dongfeng Motor Corporation have been released. 
The offer’s appraised value by Somerley (HK$10.93) and Altus (HK$11.37) has issues with the methodology. Nevertheless, my methodology, which aims to address these issues, suggests the valuations are justifiable. 
The VOYAH listing document, which discloses the 2025 financials, points to strong fundamentals that lend further support to the valuation. The vote on 9 March remains low risk. 


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Takeaways from the Composite Doc and VOYAH’s Listing Doc

China

Seres Group is a Chinese automotive manufacturer specializing in new energy vehicles (NEVs), including the AITO series, and their core components like batteries and electric motors. The company also produces traditional fuel vehicles, motorcycles, commercial vehicles, and auto parts. Seres Group was founded in September 1986 and is headquartered in Chongqing, China.

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Seres (9927 HK)

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Thoughts on VOYAH’s Listing on 19 March

Despite the market turmoil, VOYAH’s peers have fared well, up 7% since the vote. My VOYAH midpoint valuation is HK$12.45. In comparison, at...

Arun George

A+H Listing: The Connect Inclusion Stat and the Trade

A+H Connect inclusion study across 27 IPOs finds H underperformance at stabilization expiry. Two trades live: DELTON (20 Mar listing) and ESTUN...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Valuation Uncertainty Ahead of the Vote

As expected, the scheme vote was comfortably passed. The last day of trading is tomorrow. VOYAH shares are expected to trade on 19 March. While...

Arun George

HK Connect March 2026: Implementation Forecast and Positioning Framework

March Connect implementation is nearing: we forecast expected ADD/DELETE actions and assess how positioning, crowding, and southbound flows may...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Takeaways from the Composite Doc and VOYAH’s Listing Doc

The composite doc lists two appraised val. approaches that, despite issues, have justifiable valuations. VOYAH had a strong 2025. The vote remains...

Arun George

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