HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Eastroc Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK)</a> has a solid growth outlook with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, given its leadership position in China's functional beverage market. </li>
<li>Its IPO price of HK$248 equals 20.4x FY26F PER. This is at 44% premium to the sector and 19% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, which is justified. </li>
<li>The cap and the floor is 5% and 15% discount to the A-share, i.e. HK$239-265.1, implying a 7% upside and 4% downside. The IPO (11.2% discount) is fairly priced.</li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK) has a solid growth outlook with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, given its leadership position in China's functional beverage market. 
Its IPO price of HK$248 equals 20.4x FY26F PER. This is at 44% premium to the sector and 19% discount to Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), which is justified. 
The cap and the floor is 5% and 15% discount to the A-share, i.e. HK$239-265.1, implying a 7% upside and 4% downside. The IPO (11.2% discount) is fairly priced.


Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK)</a>, the largest functional beverage company in China, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.3 billion.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eastroc-beverage-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:218181" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a></strong></em>. </li>
<li>The proposed AH discount of 12.6% (based on the 23 January A Share price) is tight and will draw mixed views. Overall, I will tilt towards participating in the listing. </li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK), the largest functional beverage company in China, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.3 billion.
I discussed the H Share listing in Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
The proposed AH discount of 12.6% (based on the 23 January A Share price) is tight and will draw mixed views. Overall, I will tilt towards participating in the listing. 


Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing (9980 HK): Valuation Insights

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Four months after the offer was announced, Dongfeng Motor Corporation has satisfied the regulatory precondition related to its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> offer.</li>
<li>The remaining precondition is approval from the CSRC and HKEx, both of which are low-risk. The appraised value of HK$10.85 is the key point of debate.   </li>
<li>The peers have since derated, which affects the appraised value. However, based on several methodologies, I estimate the offer is worth HK$11.51-11.55 per H Share.</li>
</ul>


Four months after the offer was announced, Dongfeng Motor Corporation has satisfied the regulatory precondition related to its Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) offer.
The remaining precondition is approval from the CSRC and HKEx, both of which are low-risk. The appraised value of HK$10.85 is the key point of debate.   
The peers have since derated, which affects the appraised value. However, based on several methodologies, I estimate the offer is worth HK$11.51-11.55 per H Share.


Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

Equity Bottom-Up

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. </li>
<li>The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microchip-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8788:1" rel="noopener">Microchip Technology (MCHP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments (TXN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.</li>
</ul>



GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. 
The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely Microchip Technology (MCHP US) and Texas Instruments (TXN US). 
Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.


GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


There could be 49 potential inclusions and 25 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

China

Seres Group is a Chinese automotive manufacturer specializing in new energy vehicles (NEVs), including the AITO series, and their core components like batteries and electric motors. The company also produces traditional fuel vehicles, motorcycles, commercial vehicles, and auto parts. Seres Group was founded in September 1986 and is headquartered in Chongqing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Seres (9927 HK)

Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

The appraised offer HK$10.85 value is the key debating point, particularly as peers have derated. However, based on several methodologies, I...

Arun George

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

There could be 74 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 64 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

​Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing (9980 HK): Valuation Insights

The proposed AH discount of 12.6% (based on the 23 January A Share price) is tight and will draw mixed views. Overall, I will tilt towards...

Arun George

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): Regulatory Precondition Satisfied

The appraised offer HK$10.85 value is the key debating point, particularly as peers have derated. However, based on several methodologies, I...

Arun George

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

​GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Mar 2026): Many Changes Following Huge IPO Quarter

There could be 74 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 64 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...