HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Montage Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.</li>
<li>We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rambus-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7214:1" rel="noopener">Rambus (RMBS US)</a>, the third-largest player globally. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.</li>
</ul>


As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, Montage Technology (6809 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.
We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over Rambus (RMBS US), the third-largest player globally. 

This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.


Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 170 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 59.2% as of Jan 30th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, utilities, industrials and offset by energy, real estate, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Railway, CNOOC, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, YOFC, Tianqi Lithium, Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 170 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 59.2% as of Jan 30th.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, utilities, industrials and offset by energy, real estate, financials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Railway, CNOOC, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, YOFC, Tianqi Lithium, Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 30th): China Railway, CNOOC, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, YOFC, Tianqi Lithium

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Montage Technology   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28236:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (688008 CH)</a>, the world's largest memory interconnect chip supplier,  has launched an H Share listing to raise US$902 million.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/montage-technology-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:216984" rel="noopener">Montage Technology H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a>. The price momentum is strong amid a well-documented surge in memory chip prices.  </li>
<li>The proposed AH discount of 41.3% (based on the 29 January A Share price) is attractive. Overall, I would participate in the listing.</li>
</ul>



Montage Technology (688008 CH), the world's largest memory interconnect chip supplier,  has launched an H Share listing to raise US$902 million.
I discussed the H Share listing in Montage Technology H Share Listing: The Investment Case. The price momentum is strong amid a well-documented surge in memory chip prices.  
The proposed AH discount of 41.3% (based on the 29 January A Share price) is attractive. Overall, I would participate in the listing.


Montage Technology H Share Listing (6809 HK): Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>The H-share IPO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muyuan-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3705:1" rel="noopener">Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK)</a> should draw good interest given its position as the world's largest hog farming company by capacity. </li>
<li>Its IPO price of HK$39 equals 8.8x FY26F PER, which is 10% below <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>. It is relatively cheap vs. the global peers' average of 11.3x.</li>
<li>Based on 10% discount to its A-share, the IPO's fair value is assessed at HK$46.90, 20.2% upside; and the floor is HK$41.70, being 20% discount.</li>
</ul>


The H-share IPO of Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK) should draw good interest given its position as the world's largest hog farming company by capacity. 
Its IPO price of HK$39 equals 8.8x FY26F PER, which is 10% below WH Group (288 HK). It is relatively cheap vs. the global peers' average of 11.3x.
Based on 10% discount to its A-share, the IPO's fair value is assessed at HK$46.90, 20.2% upside; and the floor is HK$41.70, being 20% discount.


Muyuan Foods (2714 HK) IPO: Inexpensively Priced

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/muyuan-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3705:1" rel="noopener">Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK)</a>, the world’s largest pork company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.4 billion.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/muyuan-foods-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:218326" rel="noopener">Muyuan Foods H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>The proposed AH discount of 23.1% (based on the 28 January A Share price) is attractive. Overall, I would participate in the listing.</li>
</ul>



Muyuan Foods Co (2714 HK), the world’s largest pork company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.4 billion.
I discussed the H Share listing in Muyuan Foods H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
The proposed AH discount of 23.1% (based on the 28 January A Share price) is attractive. Overall, I would participate in the listing.


Muyuan Foods H Share Listing (2714 HK): Valuation Insights

China

Seres Group is a Chinese automotive manufacturer specializing in new energy vehicles (NEVs), including the AITO series, and their core components like batteries and electric motors. The company also produces traditional fuel vehicles, motorcycles, commercial vehicles, and auto parts. Seres Group was founded in September 1986 and is headquartered in Chongqing, China.

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Seres (9927 HK)

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 30th): China Railway, CNOOC, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, YOFC, Tianqi Lithium

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Railway, CNOOC, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, YOFC, Tianqi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Muyuan Foods (2714 HK) IPO: Inexpensively Priced

Muyuan's IPO offers good value due to its position as the world's largest hog farming company by capacity. It is valued at HK$46.90, with a floor...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

​Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 30th): China Railway, CNOOC, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, YOFC, Tianqi Lithium

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Railway, CNOOC, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, YOFC, Tianqi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Montage Technology H Share Listing (6809 HK): Valuation Insights

The price momentum is strong amid a well-documented surge in memory chip prices. The proposed AH discount of 41.3% (based on the 29 January A Share...

Arun George

Muyuan Foods (2714 HK) IPO: Inexpensively Priced

​Muyuan's IPO offers good value due to its position as the world's largest hog farming company by capacity. It is valued at HK$46.90, with a floor...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Muyuan Foods H Share Listing (2714 HK): Valuation Insights

Muyuan Foods, the world’s largest pork company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.4 billion. The proposed AH discount of 23.1% is...

Arun George

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Muyuan's IPO offers good value due to its position as the world's largest hog farming company by capacity. It is valued at HK$46.90, with a floor...