Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Four new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/second-chance-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20342:1" rel="noopener">Second Chance Properties (SCE SP)</a>'s VGO,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsung-tongsang-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4107:1" rel="noopener">Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS)</a>'s Tender, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rex-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13845:1" rel="noopener">Rex Minerals (RXM AU)</a>'s Scheme, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest (1381 HK)</a>'s possible Offer.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18626:1" rel="noopener">Altium Ltd (ALU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asia-cement-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3374:1" rel="noopener">Asia Cement China (743 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 46 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Four new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: Second Chance Properties (SCE SP)'s VGO,Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS)'s Tender, Rex Minerals (RXM AU)'s Scheme, and Canvest (1381 HK)'s possible Offer.
Key updates took place on Altium Ltd (ALU AU), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Asia Cement China (743 HK), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), and Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Second Chance Properties, Shinsung Tongsang, Rex Minerals, Canvest, Altium

<ul>
<li>It's just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a>, which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. </li>
<li>A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>. Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.</li>
<li>Loo Choon Yong, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raffles-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:879:1" rel="noopener">Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)</a>'s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,</li>
</ul>


It's just a question of when, not if, the bubble bursts for Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ), which is up 1,200% since it October 2023 IPO. 
A Reuters article suggests a ¥500bn secondary offering for Honda Motor (7267 JP). Honda has since said there is smoke. And we can assume there is fire.
Loo Choon Yong, Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)'s founder and major shareholder, continues to chip away at minorities, and now holds 54.944%,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sermsuk-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15918:1" rel="noopener">Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)</a>'s Delisting Offer. There are also rumours of an Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raffles-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:879:1" rel="noopener">Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">MMA Offshore (MRM AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Just one new deal was discussed this week on Smartkarma: Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)'s Delisting Offer. There are also rumours of an Offer for Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP).
Key updates took place on: L'Occitane (973 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), MMA Offshore (MRM AU), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L'Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is proposing to take 64.67%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sermsuk-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15918:1" rel="noopener">Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)</a>  private by way of a voluntary Delisting Offer.</li>
<li>T<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Tender_Offer_SSC_Shares.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=808724" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he Offer price is THB 63/share</a>, a 27.9% premium to last close.</li>
<li>This Delisting Offer requires a Scheme-like shareholder vote. Payment may occur late 4Q24. This is an illiquid arb.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is proposing to take 64.67%-held Sermsuk PCL (SSC TB)  private by way of a voluntary Delisting Offer.
The Offer price is THB 63/share, a 27.9% premium to last close.
This Delisting Offer requires a Scheme-like shareholder vote. Payment may occur late 4Q24. This is an illiquid arb.


Sermsuk (SSC TB): THBEV's Delisting Offer

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

We initiate coverage on HTC with a BUY rating and based on a target price of Bt27, derived from 15.7xPE’18E, which represents its two-year average trading range and a discount of 39% on the World Consumer Staples Sector. The story:<ul><li>Exclusive rights to southern region from global brand owner</li><li>PET factory to support long-term growth</li><li>Distribution system spins product turnover faster</li><li>Upside for refined sugar cost changed</li></ul>Risks:  <ul><li>Shortage of main raw materials</li><li>Changes in consumer preferences to non-returnable containers from glass</li></ul>Background: Haad Thip Public Company Limited was established in 1969 in Thailand’s southern region. HTC was granted a franchise by The Coca-Cola Company (U.S.A), Atlanta, Georgia, as an exclusive bottler of sparkling beverages under the trademarks of Coca-Cola, Fanta and Sprite, and other products owned by Coca-Cola company such as Minute Maid, Aquarius and Namthip, drinking water for Thailand’s 14 southern provinces. The company has two factories, one in Hat Yai, Songkhla province, and Phunphin*, Surat Thani, which have combined capacity of 30m cases per year.

We initiate coverage on HTC with a BUY rating and based on a target price of Bt27, derived from 15.7xPE’18E, which represents its two-year average trading range and a discount of 39% on the World Consumer Staples Sector. The story:Exclusive rights to southern region from global brand ownerPET factory to support long-term growthDistribution system spins product turnover fasterUpside for refined sugar cost changedRisks:  Shortage of main raw materialsChanges in consumer preferences to non-returnable containers from glassBackground: Haad Thip Public Company Limited was established in 1969 in Thailand’s southern region. HTC was granted a franchise by The Coca-Cola Company (U.S.A), Atlanta, Georgia, as an exclusive bottler of sparkling beverages under the trademarks of Coca-Cola, Fanta and Sprite, and other products owned by Coca-Cola company such as Minute Maid, Aquarius and Namthip, drinking water for Thailand’s 14 southern provinces. The company has two factories, one in Hat Yai, Songkhla province, and Phunphin*, Surat Thani, which have combined capacity of 30m cases per year.

HTC: Soft Drink King Rules in Southern Thailand

Thailand

Sermsuk Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based beverage company that manufactures and distributes carbonated soft drinks, drinking water, sports drinks, energy drinks, and ready-to-drink tea. Key brands include est cola, Crystal drinking water, and Oishi ready-to-drink tea. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded in 1952.

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Sermsuk (SSC TB)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Second Chance Properties, Shinsung Tongsang, Rex Minerals, Canvest, Altium

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Barito Renewables, Honda, Raffles Medical, Daidoh, Hanwha Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sermsuk, L'Occitane, Shinko Electric, MMA Offshore, Hollysys

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Sermsuk (SSC TB): THBEV's Delisting Offer

This is done. The Offer Price is fair. Assuming completion early January 2025, I'd buy around THB 58.50, a 7% gross spread, or 15% annualised.

David Blennerhassett

HTC: Soft Drink King Rules in Southern Thailand

We initiate coverage on HTC with a BUY rating and based on a target price of Bt27, derived from 15.7xPE’18E, which represents its two-year average...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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