Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

<p style="text-align: justify;">On the opening date of Vedanta’s delisting offer (October 5, 2020), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-securities-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26737:1" rel="noopener">Icici Securities (ISEC IN)</a> (I-Sec) issued a results research note on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> with the following bizarre statement: “Vedanta has highlighted the SEBI [The Securities and Exchange Board of India] approved book value (ex the revaluation reserves) of Rs 89.3/share.” I-Sec, a listed subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> , is an investment bank and sell-side firm. The report was authored by <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/abhijit-mitra-aa795846/?originalSubdomain=in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Abhijit Mitra</a> (with 8 1/2 years sell-side experience) and Udaykiran Paluri. Even a novice analyst would know that a company’s accounts are certified by the auditor, and the capital market regulator has no role to approve or disapprove a company’s book value.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">In any credible sell-side firm, the maker-checker (or “four eyes”) principle requires that a supervisory analyst approve the research note prior to publication. Normally, an editor reviews the note for grammar, sentence construction, logic and overall flow. An experienced sell-side editor would have rectified the “SEBI approved” phrase, as the terminology is not used in sell-side research. In a domestic firm like I-Sec <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/manoj-menon-8ab8712/?originalSubdomain=in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Manoj Menon</a>, as the head of institutional research, should have signed off as the supervisory analyst, and this phrase should have been immediately flagged. All research reports also have to be approved by the compliance department prior to publication. It is a mystery how in a prominent sell-side firm, majority-owned by a leading bank, such a phrase slipped through these quality control measures.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Despite being a listed company, I-Sec has displayed a complete lack of transparency in clarifying how such an appalling lapse took place. SEBI directed the company to issue a public statement, which was carried in the prominent newspapers, whereby the company acknowledged that the phrase should read as “Vedanta has highlighted that the FY20 book value is Rs 89.3/share.” I-Sec declined to clarify to the media as well as to this writer how its internal systems could have failed, permitting such a statement to be published in a research report.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">An alternative explanation is that, even though I-Sec was not involved in the Vedanta delisting offer as an investment bank, it was trying to support the founders of Vedanta by persuading the company’s minority shareholders that, since the regulator had “approved” the book value, it was an appropriate floor price for the issue. Media <a href="https://www.pressreader.com/india/business-standard/20201009/282050509529492" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a>, citing sources, say that SEBI may launch a probe on the timing of the I-Sec report. The Vedanta delisting offer was controversial, as the management depressed the book value by taking huge write-offs of Rs 174 bn. Moreover, the management had chosen not to pass on the dividend of Hindustan Zinc to shareholders, contrary to the promises in its dividend distribution policy.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Whatever the explanation, the credibility of I-Sec, and particularly its research, has been tarnished by this episode. To date no action has been taken on the concerned officials who had approved the phrase. The public ignominy of issuing an erratum in prominent media agencies may just be the beginning, and further penalties may lie in store.</p>

On the opening date of Vedanta’s delisting offer (October 5, 2020), Icici Securities (ISEC IN) (I-Sec) issued a results research note on Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) with the following bizarre statement: “Vedanta has highlighted the SEBI [The Securities and Exchange Board of India] approved book value (ex the revaluation reserves) of Rs 89.3/share.” I-Sec, a listed subsidiary of ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) , is an investment bank and sell-side firm. The report was authored by Abhijit Mitra (with 8 1/2 years sell-side experience) and Udaykiran Paluri. Even a novice analyst would know that a company’s accounts are certified by the auditor, and the capital market regulator has no role to approve or disapprove a company’s book value.In any credible sell-side firm, the maker-checker (or “four eyes”) principle requires that a supervisory analyst approve the research note prior to publication. Normally, an editor reviews the note for grammar, sentence construction, logic and overall flow. An experienced sell-side editor would have rectified the “SEBI approved” phrase, as the terminology is not used in sell-side research. In a domestic firm like I-Sec Manoj Menon, as the head of institutional research, should have signed off as the supervisory analyst, and this phrase should have been immediately flagged. All research reports also have to be approved by the compliance department prior to publication. It is a mystery how in a prominent sell-side firm, majority-owned by a leading bank, such a phrase slipped through these quality control measures.Despite being a listed company, I-Sec has displayed a complete lack of transparency in clarifying how such an appalling lapse took place. SEBI directed the company to issue a public statement, which was carried in the prominent newspapers, whereby the company acknowledged that the phrase should read as “Vedanta has highlighted that the FY20 book value is Rs 89.3/share.” I-Sec declined to clarify to the media as well as to this writer how its internal systems could have failed, permitting such a statement to be published in a research report.An alternative explanation is that, even though I-Sec was not involved in the Vedanta delisting offer as an investment bank, it was trying to support the founders of Vedanta by persuading the company’s minority shareholders that, since the regulator had “approved” the book value, it was an appropriate floor price for the issue. Media reports, citing sources, say that SEBI may launch a probe on the timing of the I-Sec report. The Vedanta delisting offer was controversial, as the management depressed the book value by taking huge write-offs of Rs 174 bn. Moreover, the management had chosen not to pass on the dividend of Hindustan Zinc to shareholders, contrary to the promises in its dividend distribution policy.Whatever the explanation, the credibility of I-Sec, and particularly its research, has been tarnished by this episode. To date no action has been taken on the concerned officials who had approved the phrase. The public ignominy of issuing an erratum in prominent media agencies may just be the beginning, and further penalties may lie in store.

Currying Favour with Vedanta? I-Sec Report’s Appalling Lapse

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Late Saturday night <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> released an <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/172a3c4a-d43e-455e-ab32-24995981d75b.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> to the BSE and NSE that the biggest Delisting Offer in Indian history had failed. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/534/original/Screenshot%202020-10-11%20at%202.17.10%20PM.png?1602397079" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164534"></figure><p></p><p>Regulation 19 (1) of the Delisting Regulations noted above is that either they did not get enough shares, or the Promoter got enough shares and rejected the price. In this case, as the next page of the announcement shows, they did not get enough shares. The required number of shares to reach 90% to trigger a Discovered Price was 1.341bn but the number of confirmed bid shares submitted was 1.2547bn shares. An additional 123.19mm shares had been submitted, taking the total to 1.378bn, which would have passed the hurdle, but those shares were not confirmed by bankers and custodians before the deadline. </p><p>It was reported that the bankers DAM Capital and JP Morgan were seeking to extend the Delisting Offer for an extra day because of both the BSE outage Friday and the matter of some brokers only allowing bids at the Floor Price (<a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/a5442d38-c0e2-49d9-9080-9adde2d9a28f.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> Thursday). The BSE had already extended the hours of the Delisting Offer to 7pm Indian Standard Time, and this was seen to be helping. Apparently the bankers were not successful at the time. </p><p>This will likely cause an unwind. This will hurt the price.</p><h3><em><strong>But wait...</strong></em></h3><p>An article put out by PTI (Press Trust of India) and syndicated across <a href="https://www.news18.com/news/business/vedanta-delisting-fails-forcing-company-to-seek-extension-of-buyback-period-2951678.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">several</a><a href="https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/vedanta-delisting-fails-co-seeks-extension-of-buyback-period/1953293" target="_blank" rel="noopener">newspapers</a> has a quote saying...</p><blockquote><p>Sources privy to the development said Vedanta is now exploring with regulatory authorities if the reverse book building period could be extended by one day.</p></blockquote><p>There is still a chance, and while I thought VEDR <em>should have had</em> the extra day, I do not know that SEBI will give them the extra day now that the result has been announced. I would be surprised if they get the extra day.</p><p>More about the size of the unwind, the "fair" price vs comps, and possible mitigants below the fold.</p><hr><div><p><em>Insights previously published in the timeline of the Vedanta Delisting Offer are listed below.</em></p></div><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 723.636px;"><h3>Relevant Insights To Date</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;"><strong>Theme or Ticker</strong></td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;"><strong>Insight Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">2019</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">Indian M&amp;A Guide</td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-india-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30885" rel="noopener">Quiddity India M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">24 May 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">Delisting Offers</td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indian-delisting-exit-offers-know-your-process-and-the-games-played" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39683" rel="noopener">Indian Delisting/Exit Offers - Know Your Process and The Games Played</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">19 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">Failed Exit Offers</td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/failed-exit-offers-in-india-lessons-for-vedl-adani-and-hexw" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40492" rel="noopener">Failed Exit Offers in India: Lessons for VEDL, ADANI, and HEXW?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">27 May 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-offer-how-it-goes-from-here" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39761" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Offer - How It Goes From Here</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">22 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-offer-opportunities-and-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40528" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Offer: Opportunities and Timing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">25 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-buyout-loan-huge-hindustan-zinc-div-but-may-change-vedanta-rbb-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40653" rel="noopener">Vedanta Buyout Loan = HUGE Hindustan Zinc Div But May Change Vedanta RBB Timing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">14 Jul 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/putting-sightlines-on-the-vedanta-discovered-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41236" rel="noopener">Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Discovered Price</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">18 Aug 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/putting-sightlines-on-the-vedanta-delisting-offer-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42260" rel="noopener">Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Delisting Offer TIMING</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">7 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-reaching-the-end-game" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42969" rel="noopener">Vedanta: Reaching The End Game</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">17 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-more-fuel-for-the-fire" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43316" rel="noopener">Vedanta : More Fuel For The Fire</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">21 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-vedl-cash-raised-money-flow-and-how-it-affects-delisting-offer-discovered-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43429" rel="noopener">Vedanta (VEDL): Cash Raised, Money Flow, and How It Affects Discovered Price</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">29 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-reverse-book-build-auction-it-s-on-and-the-schedule-from-here-is-tight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43694" rel="noopener">Vedanta Reverse Book Build Auction - It’s On And the Schedule From Here Is Tight</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">4 Oct 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-limited-reports-results-key-info-on-deal-funding-embedded" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43839" rel="noopener">Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">8 Oct 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-selldown-probably-futures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43956" rel="noopener">Vedanta SellDown - Probably Futures</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 71.8182px;">9 Oct 2020</td>
<td style="width: 133.636px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.364px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-someone-is-playing-silly-buggers-but-even-on-the-last-day-investor-strategy-matters" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43991" rel="noopener">Vedanta - Someone Is Playing Silly Buggers But Even On The Last Day Investor Strategy Matters</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>

Late Saturday night Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) released an announcement to the BSE and NSE that the biggest Delisting Offer in Indian history had failed. Regulation 19 (1) of the Delisting Regulations noted above is that either they did not get enough shares, or the Promoter got enough shares and rejected the price. In this case, as the next page of the announcement shows, they did not get enough shares. The required number of shares to reach 90% to trigger a Discovered Price was 1.341bn but the number of confirmed bid shares submitted was 1.2547bn shares. An additional 123.19mm shares had been submitted, taking the total to 1.378bn, which would have passed the hurdle, but those shares were not confirmed by bankers and custodians before the deadline. It was reported that the bankers DAM Capital and JP Morgan were seeking to extend the Delisting Offer for an extra day because of both the BSE outage Friday and the matter of some brokers only allowing bids at the Floor Price (reported Thursday). The BSE had already extended the hours of the Delisting Offer to 7pm Indian Standard Time, and this was seen to be helping. Apparently the bankers were not successful at the time. This will likely cause an unwind. This will hurt the price.But wait...An article put out by PTI (Press Trust of India) and syndicated across severalnewspapers has a quote saying...Sources privy to the development said Vedanta is now exploring with regulatory authorities if the reverse book building period could be extended by one day.There is still a chance, and while I thought VEDR should have had the extra day, I do not know that SEBI will give them the extra day now that the result has been announced. I would be surprised if they get the extra day.More about the size of the unwind, the "fair" price vs comps, and possible mitigants below the fold.Insights previously published in the timeline of the Vedanta Delisting Offer are listed below.
Relevant Insights To Date

Date
Theme or Ticker
Insight Title


2019
Indian M&amp;A Guide

Quiddity India M&amp;A Guide 2019 


24 May 2020
Delisting Offers

Indian Delisting/Exit Offers - Know Your Process and The Games Played 


19 Jun 2020
Failed Exit Offers

Failed Exit Offers in India: Lessons for VEDL, ADANI, and HEXW? 


27 May 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Delisting Offer - How It Goes From Here 


22 Jun 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Delisting Offer: Opportunities and Timing 


25 Jun 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Buyout Loan = HUGE Hindustan Zinc Div But May Change Vedanta RBB Timing 


14 Jul 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Discovered Price 


18 Aug 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Delisting Offer TIMING 


7 Sep 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta: Reaching The End Game 


17 Sep 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta : More Fuel For The Fire 


21 Sep 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta (VEDL): Cash Raised, Money Flow, and How It Affects Discovered Price 


29 Sep 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Reverse Book Build Auction - It’s On And the Schedule From Here Is Tight 


4 Oct 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded 


8 Oct 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta SellDown - Probably Futures 


9 Oct 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta - Someone Is Playing Silly Buggers But Even On The Last Day Investor Strategy Matters 



Vedanta Delisting Proposal/Offer Fails (We Think)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>Late last evening, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> in an <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/172a3c4a-d43e-455e-ab32-24995981d75b.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> to the Stock Exchanges said that its promoter <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22202:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Resources (VED LN)</a> had informed them that the Delisting Offer was deemed to have failed.</p><p>With just over 1.34bn shares needing to be tendered in the Reverse Book Building (RBB) process for the Promoters to reach a 90% shareholding, there were almost 1.378bn shares tendered. However, the number of confirmed shares was only 1.255bn which meant that the 90% threshold was not reached.</p><p>With the delisting having failed, shares that were tendered in the RBB process need to be returned within 10 working days. The stock will come under pressure on Monday with a final selloff once the locked up shares are released. With the futures in ban period, it is extremely difficult for investors to hedge their position.</p><p>The ADR <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sesa-sterlite-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10972:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL US)</a> had closed 7.74% lower on Friday, implying a local price of INR 109/share versus a close of INR 121.85/share on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> on Friday.</p><p>In his Insight, we look at the numbers from the RBB process and try to figure out why the Delisting failed and what it could mean for the stock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22202:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Resources (VED LN)</a> going forward.</p>

Late last evening, Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) in an announcement to the Stock Exchanges said that its promoter Vedanta Resources (VED LN) had informed them that the Delisting Offer was deemed to have failed.With just over 1.34bn shares needing to be tendered in the Reverse Book Building (RBB) process for the Promoters to reach a 90% shareholding, there were almost 1.378bn shares tendered. However, the number of confirmed shares was only 1.255bn which meant that the 90% threshold was not reached.With the delisting having failed, shares that were tendered in the RBB process need to be returned within 10 working days. The stock will come under pressure on Monday with a final selloff once the locked up shares are released. With the futures in ban period, it is extremely difficult for investors to hedge their position.The ADR Vedanta Ltd (VEDL US) had closed 7.74% lower on Friday, implying a local price of INR 109/share versus a close of INR 121.85/share on Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) on Friday.In his Insight, we look at the numbers from the RBB process and try to figure out why the Delisting failed and what it could mean for the stock and Vedanta Resources (VED LN) going forward.

Vedanta (VEDL IN): A Failed Delisting Will Now Pressure The Stock

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Northern Star/Saracen, Vedanta, Toyota, Swire

<p>As of the close today, 20% of the remaining 49.9-ish % of shares out in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> have been tendered, and a look at the structure of the shareholder base and the prices tendered early on may offer (with some degree of accuracy) an idea of how much more WILL be tendered, how much more MAY be tendered, and how that gets us to 90%. </p><p>Looking at the structure of the Bid Details is also informative. </p><p>Together, this provides information on the best price to place your Bids if you have yet to place them. Watching this through the day may provide some information on what result is likely by day end and therefore whether or not it is worth a trade in the shares realtime. </p><p>There is a lot of information lying around if you know where to pick it up.</p><p>More below the fold. </p><hr><div><p><em>Insights previously published in the timeline of the Vedanta Delisting Offer are listed below.</em></p></div><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724.8px;"><h3>Relevant Insights To Date</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;"><strong>Theme or Ticker</strong></td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;"><strong>Insight Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">2019</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Indian M&amp;A Guide</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-india-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30885" rel="noopener">Quiddity India M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">24 May 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Delisting Offers</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indian-delisting-exit-offers-know-your-process-and-the-games-played" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39683" rel="noopener">Indian Delisting/Exit Offers - Know Your Process and The Games Played</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">19 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">Failed Exit Offers</td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/failed-exit-offers-in-india-lessons-for-vedl-adani-and-hexw" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40492" rel="noopener">Failed Exit Offers in India: Lessons for VEDL, ADANI, and HEXW?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">27 May 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-offer-how-it-goes-from-here" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39761" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Offer - How It Goes From Here</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">22 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-offer-opportunities-and-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40528" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Offer: Opportunities and Timing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">25 Jun 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-buyout-loan-huge-hindustan-zinc-div-but-may-change-vedanta-rbb-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40653" rel="noopener">Vedanta Buyout Loan = HUGE Hindustan Zinc Div But May Change Vedanta RBB Timing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">14 Jul 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/putting-sightlines-on-the-vedanta-discovered-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41236" rel="noopener">Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Discovered Price</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">18 Aug 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/putting-sightlines-on-the-vedanta-delisting-offer-timing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42260" rel="noopener">Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Delisting Offer TIMING</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">7 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-reaching-the-end-game" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42969" rel="noopener">Vedanta: Reaching The End Game</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">17 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-more-fuel-for-the-fire" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43316" rel="noopener">Vedanta : More Fuel For The Fire</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">21 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-vedl-cash-raised-money-flow-and-how-it-affects-delisting-offer-discovered-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43429" rel="noopener">Vedanta (VEDL): Cash Raised, Money Flow, and How It Affects Discovered Price</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">29 Sep 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-reverse-book-build-auction-it-s-on-and-the-schedule-from-here-is-tight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43694" rel="noopener">Vedanta Reverse Book Build Auction - It’s On And the Schedule From Here Is Tight</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">4 Oct 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-limited-reports-results-key-info-on-deal-funding-embedded" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43839" rel="noopener">Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 72px;">8 Oct 2020</td>
<td style="width: 134.4px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd</a> </td>
<td style="width: 476.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-selldown-probably-futures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43956" rel="noopener">Vedanta SellDown - Probably Futures</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div>

As of the close today, 20% of the remaining 49.9-ish % of shares out in Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) have been tendered, and a look at the structure of the shareholder base and the prices tendered early on may offer (with some degree of accuracy) an idea of how much more WILL be tendered, how much more MAY be tendered, and how that gets us to 90%. Looking at the structure of the Bid Details is also informative. Together, this provides information on the best price to place your Bids if you have yet to place them. Watching this through the day may provide some information on what result is likely by day end and therefore whether or not it is worth a trade in the shares realtime. There is a lot of information lying around if you know where to pick it up.More below the fold. Insights previously published in the timeline of the Vedanta Delisting Offer are listed below.
Relevant Insights To Date

Date
Theme or Ticker
Insight Title


2019
Indian M&amp;A Guide

Quiddity India M&amp;A Guide 2019 


24 May 2020
Delisting Offers

Indian Delisting/Exit Offers - Know Your Process and The Games Played 


19 Jun 2020
Failed Exit Offers

Failed Exit Offers in India: Lessons for VEDL, ADANI, and HEXW? 


27 May 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Delisting Offer - How It Goes From Here 


22 Jun 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Delisting Offer: Opportunities and Timing 


25 Jun 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Buyout Loan = HUGE Hindustan Zinc Div But May Change Vedanta RBB Timing 


14 Jul 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Discovered Price 


18 Aug 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Putting Sightlines on the Vedanta Delisting Offer TIMING 


7 Sep 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta: Reaching The End Game 


17 Sep 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta : More Fuel For The Fire 


21 Sep 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta (VEDL): Cash Raised, Money Flow, and How It Affects Discovered Price 


29 Sep 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Reverse Book Build Auction - It’s On And the Schedule From Here Is Tight 


4 Oct 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta Limited Reports Results: KEY Info on Deal Funding Embedded 


8 Oct 2020

Vedanta Ltd 

Vedanta SellDown - Probably Futures 



Vedanta - Someone Is Playing Silly Buggers But Even On The Last Day Investor Strategy Matters

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL US)

Currying Favour with Vedanta? I-Sec Report’s Appalling Lapse

On the opening date of Vedanta’s delisting offer (October 5, 2020), ICICI Securities (I-Sec) issued a results research note on Vedanta with the...

Hemindra Hazari

Vedanta Delisting Proposal/Offer Fails (We Think)

Late Saturday night Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)

Travis Lundy

Vedanta (VEDL IN): A Failed Delisting Will Now Pressure The Stock

With the Vedanta Delisting Offer having failed, we take a look at why it failed and what it could mean for the stock going forward.

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Northern Star/Saracen, Vedanta, Toyota, Swire

Last Week in Event SPACE ... Plus, other events, CCASS movements and Mood Spins. (This insight covers specific insights & comments...

David Blennerhassett

Vedanta - Someone Is Playing Silly Buggers But Even On The Last Day Investor Strategy Matters

As of the close today, 20% of the remaining 49.9-ish % of s

Travis Lundy

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