Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. </li>
<li>More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. </li>
<li>The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. </li>
</ul>


About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. 
More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. 
The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. 


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The BOJ released its loan officer survey on 21 April which is generally positive for lending demand at firms and eased credit standards (willingness to lend)</li>
<li>Demand for credit over past 3 months for firms, 43 respondents were about the same, 6 were moderately stronger, 1 substantially stronger. No respondents were weaker</li>
<li>Lending policies saw most respondents unchanged, but there were some as 'eased somewhat' and 1 'eased considerably' with no respondents reporting tightening</li>
</ul>


The BOJ released its loan officer survey on 21 April which is generally positive for lending demand at firms and eased credit standards (willingness to lend)
Demand for credit over past 3 months for firms, 43 respondents were about the same, 6 were moderately stronger, 1 substantially stronger. No respondents were weaker
Lending policies saw most respondents unchanged, but there were some as 'eased somewhat' and 1 'eased considerably' with no respondents reporting tightening


Japan - New Loan Officer Survey Is Positive for Lending Growth, for Banks, Underlying Economy

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypay-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35269:1" rel="noopener">PayPay (PAYP US)</a> (PP), a payments and financial services platform, raised around US$880m in its US IPO in March 2026, the lockup on its shareholders is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a payments and financial services platform, raised around US$880m in its US IPO in March 2026, the lockup on its shareholders is set to expire soon.
PP operates a digital finance platform that serves as a payment solution for users and merchants, along with offering additional services.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: PayPay Lockup Expiry - US$10.5bn Lockup Release

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze</li>
<li>The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation</li>
<li>Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover</li>
</ul>


Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze
The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation
Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover


Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR'</strong> - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE</strong> - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS DRIVER</strong> - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

Japan

Seven Bank, Ltd. provides banking services mainly through Automated Teller Machine (ATM) across Japan. The bank cooperates with affiliated financial institutions to establish the nationwide ATM network and provide remote banking services, including deposits and loans.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP)

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Japan - New Loan Officer Survey Is Positive for Lending Growth, for Banks, Underlying Economy

Newly released Loan Officer Survey by BOJ has positive implications for current and forward loan growth, especially to companies. We can also...

Daniel Tabbush

Aequitas: PayPay Lockup Expiry - US$10.5bn Lockup Release

PayPay (PAYP US) (PP), a payments and financial services platform, raised around US$880m in its US IPO in March 2026, the lockup on its...

Sumeet Singh

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)